“The coronavirus was an unexpected gift to blow the best financial record ever by this President, sure and it is sad many folks died, but they also die with the flu…” –R. Charles Murray
Top Israeli Professor Claims Simple Stats Show Virus Plays Itself Out after 70 Days
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NYSE:TEVA), plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the US, UK, Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain.
The numbers tell us a shocking story, irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way.
In the exact, same, way.
His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the 6th week and rapidly subsiding by the 8th week.
The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he said. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even in countries without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.
“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: No. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Ben Israel concluded. The reason why coronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. “I have no explanation,” he says, “There are is kinds of speculation, maybe it is climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.”
The Big Q: What about Italy and their 12% mortality rate?
The Big A: “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In Y 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,” Professor Ben Israel said.
Italy’s exceptionally high coronavirus mortality rate is reminiscent of their unusually high flu mortality rates. Supportive of this theory, Germany, has low flu infection and mortality rates and similarly low coronavirus rates.
Professor Ben Israel concludes in his ‘analysis summary paper’ that the data from the past 50 days indicates that the closure policies of the quarantine countries can be replaced by more moderate social distancing policies. The numbers simply do not support quarantine or economic closure.
On the reasonableness of Israel’s unprecedented quarantine and closure, he added “I think it’s mass hysteria. I have no other way to describe it. 4,500 people die each year from the flu in Israel because of complications, so close the country because of that? No. I do not see a reason to do it because of a lower-risk epidemic.”
While the American policies remain less restrictive than those of Israel, it is important to understand the origins of our own “mass hysteria” response.
President Trump urged a strong coronavirus response after consulting with Dr. Anthony Fauci and his team, who relied on a British model predicting 2.2-M deaths in the United States and 500-K deaths in the UK. That model was developed by Professor Neil Ferguson, who’s history is of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models.
Professor Ferguson is not known for his reliability, and his Y 2001 disease model was criticized as “not fit for purpose” after it predicted that up to 150-K people could die in the UK from mad cow disease, there are just 177 deaths to date. Professor Ferguson’s UK coronavirus deaths prediction is now down to 20,000 people, just 4% of his original prediction.
Professor Ben Israel has mathematically shown us that coronavirus closures were a mistake.
It is a very tough reality, as Americans lost their jobs and businesses went under because the United States, along with most 1st world nations, acted on the chilling predictions of a severely flawed model, a reading likely taken from Professor Ferguson’s tarot cards.
Hindsight is 20/20, so we have to be realistic with our criticism.
President Trump did not want 2.2-M Americans to die and did what he believed was necessary to save our lives, relying on a model his advisors told him was trustworthy.
That is done, it happened, but it does not mean that he should continue that course.
It has been 1 month since our country declared a national coronavirus emergency and life as we knew it ceased.
Americans are growing agitated, unwilling to continue in this way, knowing something is wrong. President Trump senses that his constituency is displeased with the authoritarian power grab by some state Governors and has repeatedly stated that he wishes to reopen the country, but needs more information to make the right decision.
Professor Ben Israel’s data analysis provides President Trump with the assurance that he needs to reopen America.
Mr. President, please review Professor Ben Israel’s research and take bold steps to mitigate the damage to our economy.
Now that we know the real data, continuing the closure course is a grave error, a knowing error, an error that can no longer be justified by good intentions.
“The road of good intentions may lead to the end of our Republic.”
Even the newly announced White House 3-Phase opening plan is unjustly restrictive.
Submitted by: R. Charles Murray, Chairman/CEO, Penta 5 USA, LLC.
Paul Ebeling, Editor
Editor’s Note: Isaac Ben-Israel studied mathematics, physics and philosophy at Tel Aviv University. Ben-Israel served in the IDF until his retirement in June 2002. During his service, he held several posts in operations, intelligence and weapon development units of the IAF. He served as Head of Military R&D of the Israel Defense Forces and the Ministry of Defense. Ben-Israel was a member of the 17th Knesset. Ben Israel serves as the Chairman of the Israeli Space Agency. In 2002 Ben Israel joined the academic staff of Tel-Aviv University. He is currently the Head of Security Studies Program, Deputy Director of the Hartog School of Government and Policy, Head of the Interdisciplinary Cyber Studies Center (ICRC) and the Head of Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security at Tel-Aviv University.
Have a healthy weekend, Keep the Faith!