Japanese Yen News
Despite there being plenty of noise over the past week for currency markets, most lie in the middle of their two-week ranges this morning. Notably, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY and AUD/USD amongst the major currencies, seem to be waiting for a Federal Reserve green light before resuming their rallies versus the greenback. One exception is Her Majesty’s British Pound, which is shrugging off zero Brexit progress and is lurking at 1.3210 this morning. A daily close above 1.3270 heralds further gains to 1.3500 in the near-term.
Across regional currencies, the story is similar, although there are exceptions. An apparent temporary thawing in US/China trade relations has led to a series of stronger PBOC CNY fixes. USD/CNY has fallen to near 8-month lows at 6.8850 this morning. Assuming that nothing blows up on the US/China trade front, (a big if), USD/CNY looks poised to test its 2020 lows of 6.8400 sooner rather than later.
Across regional currencies, MYR continues to outperform, while the SGD, THB and PHP consolidate their recent gains with the global recovery story still on track with investors. The region’s laggard, the Indonesian rupiah, is being given a helping hand by the central bank today. The Bank of Indonesia is in the market selling USD/IDR this morning. Gains by the IDR remain limited, though, as President Jokowi appears to have gone all-in on a vaccine solving his Covid-19 problem and the ensuing dire economic fallout.
Overall, currency markets are likely to remain in consolidation mode ahead of the Jackson Hole speech this evening. Financial markets are expecting Fed Chair Powell to hint that lower rates will continue, and most importantly, to allow inflation targets to overshoot so as to boost average inflation levels. The twin goals seem incongruous though, as it is difficult to imagine the Fed allowing the yield curve to steepen in a significant fashion. Powell’s speech may be the first hint of yield curve control as well, just don’t call it yield curve control.
USD/JPY Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
USD/JPY Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 107.83.
The projected lower bound is: 105.54.
The projected closing price is: 106.69.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.0722. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed up 0.140 at 106.690. Volume was 88% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 106.550 106.780 106.480 106.690 12,461
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 106.06 106.54 107.98 Volatility: 8 7 12 Volume: 86,612 96,201 106,004
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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