Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) Can Waymo Drive Alphabet’s Stock?
“Can Waymo Drive Alphabet’s Stock?” Jefferies equity analysts wondered in a research note to clients Wednesday.
It certainly could, the analysts concluded in a sweeping report that examined the self-driving company’s impact on the Google-parent Alphabet.
Jefferies upped its long-term value estimate for Waymo to $US250 billion (from a previously forecasted range of $US75 to $US125 billion). That’s a notable price tag, compared to Alphabet’s current market capitalisation of $US730 billion.
“Waymo is exploring many different business models, and our new estimate encompasses not only AV technology sale, but also transport services (people, goods/foods, commercial freight), ongoing AV tech support, incar services (advertising/marketing, entertainment, business), and new types of vehicles,” the analysts, led by Brent Thill, wrote, referring to the autonomous-vehicle technology.
Accordingly, Jefferies said it would change its methodology in evaluating Waymo to a “revenue per mile monetisation model,” from an “upfront per vehicle value model.” Their forecasts for Waymo’s growth take into consideration the many concerns that still surround Waymo and self-driving technology more broadly.
“Questions linger around timeline, as influenced by AV tech progress, regulations, cost, and consumer concerns,” Jefferies wrote, citing cities and states taking a cautious approach to allowing autonomous driving.
Still, the California-based company has appeared to progress this year. Waymo was planning to launch its first commercial rides as soon as this month, in Phoenix, Arizona, Bloomberg reported in November, citing a person familiar with the matter. And back in October, Waymo became the first company to receive permission to test unmanned, self-driving cars in California.
Other Wall Street firms have analysed Waymo’s impact on Alphabet. Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley upped its own expectations for Waymo’s valuation, taking it to $US175 billion from $US75 billion.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards
The projected upper bound is: 1,094.60.
The projected lower bound is: 946.38.
The projected closing price is: 1,020.49.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with ALPHABET INC C), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 20.3091. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 46 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
ALPHABET INC C closed down -5.700 at 1,023.010. Volume was 42% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 2% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,043.25 1,064.96 1,117.71
Volatility: 31 44 33
Volume: 1,967,031 1,992,199 1,712,543
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
ALPHABET INC C is currently 8.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GOOG.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GOOG.O and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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