Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) ridiculously huge shopping festival

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) ridiculously huge shopping festival

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) ridiculously huge shopping festival

On Sunday (Nov. 11), Alibaba will mark the 10th edition of Singles’ Day, a one-day shopping event so big it eclipses both Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and leaves Amazon’s Prime Day trailing in the dust.

The story of how the shopping festival, also known as Double 11 for its date, grew from obscurity and just $7 million in sales to $25 billion last year, is also the story of the extraordinary growth of the e-commerce giant co-founded by Jack Ma in 1999—and a symbol of China’s rising consuming power.

2018: Uncertainty

The ongoing trade war with the US, which could dampen shopping enthusiasm, hangs over the 10th edition of Double 11.

Ma described the trade war as “the most stupid thing in this world” this week, following his remarks earlier this year warning a trade war could last decades. Although most of Alibaba’s revenue comes from domestic commerce, the trade tariffs and economic uncertainty from China’s slowing economy have forced the company to cut its full-year revenue forecast by 4% to 6% in a call with analysts in early November.

On the call, Alibaba’s Zhang said there could be impact on purchases of big-ticket items, and also said the company will delay efforts to earn more revenue from the businesses that sell on its platforms. Alibaba’s e-commerce revenues come from fees it charges business, commissions, and advertising.

It’s unclear how this year’s sales numbers will be affected. People still seem to be enthusiastic about the event with articles about shopping strategies circulating widely on social media this month, and pre-orders beginning last month.

Elements of Alibaba’s reconfiguration of its business, which includes expansion into offline stores (paywall) and services, such as by taking ownership of food delivery service Ele.me, will be visible this year. Consumers glued to their phones or computers can this year order food and drink from within the Alibaba universe, an option that wasn’t possible before.

Alibaba is fully prepared: in its Hangzhou headquarters, staff are airing out more than 20,000 quilts (link in Chinese) for workers who will be staying at the office for the shopping marathon.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 161.34.

The projected lower bound is: 135.46.

The projected closing price is: 148.40.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 66.2642. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed down -3.510 at 148.990. Volume was 10% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 21% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
151.000 151.880 146.690 148.990 4,131,216

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 144.73 154.39 179.56
Volatility: 71 55 44
Volume: 5,281,066 4,888,535 4,275,535

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 17.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BABA.N at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BABA.N and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.

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