Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) current volatility levels suggest that trade war worries aren’t high

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) current volatility levels suggest that trade war worries aren’t high

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) current volatility levels suggest that trade war worries aren’t high

Alibaba’s (BABA) stock has risen sharply over the past few weeks, and there are signs the shares may continue to increase in the weeks ahead. Additionally, tensions between the U.S and China appear to be easing over trade policy with a big meeting tomorrow, February 15, between the U.S. trade delegation and China’s President Xi. A positive outcome from such a meeting could help to lift the stock as well.

The technical chart suggests the stock’s price could rise to around $180 from its current price of $168 on February 14, an increase of about 7%. Meanwhile, some recent options betting agrees with a similar rise. I noted on January 14that Alibaba saw a bullish technical breakout and options bets which could send the stock higher. Since that time the stock is up about 11%.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 156.12.

The projected upper bound is: 178.65.

The projected lower bound is: 158.41.

The projected closing price is: 168.53.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 4 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish. The two candles preceding the falling window were black, which makes this pattern even more bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 63.1242. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed down -1.020 at 168.380. Volume was 50% below average (consolidating)(neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
167.500 168.500 166.650 168.380 2,171,907

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 168.63 152.73 169.29
Volatility: 26 43 43
Volume: 2,130,636 3,684,324 4,267,362

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

ALIBABA GRP ADR gapped down today (bearish) on light volume. Possibility of a Common Gap which usually coincides with a lack of interest in the security. Common Gaps are fairly irrelevent for forecasting purposes.normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 0.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BABA.N (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.N and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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