Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) could see recovery

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) could see recovery

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) could see recovery

At the start of the year, China’s largest technology companies known as the BATs, or Baidu , Alibaba and Tencent , looked unstoppable. Things continued to go very well for the big three throughout the first half of the year, with all of the firms’ share share prices hitting record highs.

But since the summer, investors in the BATs have been tearing their hair out as stock prices began to fall, ruining the decent start to 2018. Collectively, the BATs have lost around $165 billion in value year-to-date, each for their own reasons.

Even though recent reports suggested Google is looking to enter the market, the company will find it difficult to dislodge the dominance of Baidu. Amazon could find it a huge task to take on Alibaba. And Facebook will face an uphill battle getting its product to stick, particularly as Tencent’s WeChat is woven into the fabric of Chinese society. China still remains a huge opportunity for the FANGs but it continues to be out of reach.

With a home market of over a billion people, a push by the Chinese government into new technologies like AI , and continued growth of digital services, the BATs may have taken a couple of hefty blows this year, but they’re certainly not down for the count.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 171.77.

The projected lower bound is: 151.22.

The projected closing price is: 161.49.


A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 50.2669. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -8. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed down -2.760 at 162.000. Volume was 50% below average (consolidating)(neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 38% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
165.760 165.800 161.560 162.000 2,141,956

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 163.57 173.18 184.50
Volatility: 31 38 39
Volume: 3,452,553 4,707,564 4,118,870

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 12.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BABA.N at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.N and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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