Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) core commerce business

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) core commerce business

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) core commerce business

It will come as no surprise that the majority of Alibaba’s money comes from its core commerce segment. In fact, its cluster of commerce businesses made up 88% of its revenue for the most recent period. For the three months ended in December, revenue from core commerce increased by 40% year over year to nearly $15 billion. 

However, you might not know about the most successful e-commerce businesses under Alibaba’s core commerce division. First, there’s its consumer-to-consumer marketplace, Taobao, that lets small businesses and individuals sell items and has become the largest online shopping platform in China. Second, Alibaba owns business-to-consumer site Tmall.com, which outpaced the industry this past quarter by reporting a 29% increase in its physical-goods gross merchandise value. 

Alibaba’s China retail marketplaces hit a record 699 million mobile monthly active users, an increase of 33 million from the last quarter. On the company’s latest earnings call, Alibaba’s new CEO, Daniel Zhang, said he believes this group of active customers is the company’s most important asset. He hopes Alibaba can create more ways to make money from them in the future. 

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 155.50.

The projected upper bound is: 178.01.

The projected lower bound is: 157.17.

The projected closing price is: 167.59.

Candlesticks

A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 47.2952. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 24 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed up 0.400 at 167.360. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 12% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
163.900 167.600 163.900 167.360 1,747,932

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 166.35 151.90 169.42
Volatility: 45 45 43
Volume: 3,332,353 4,125,591 4,288,879

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BABA.N (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.N and have had this outlook for the last 18 periods.

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