Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) blew away the bears with fourth-quarter earnings that beat estimates handily
Alibaba Group Holding (NASDAQ:BABA) is defying the market downturn in the best possible way, with blowout earnings. Last week, BABA stock topped out just below $180 per share, a market cap of $453 billion, after the company announced earnings.
Last quarter, BABA earnings came in at $1.28 per share, on revenue of $13.9 billion, and highlighted $1.15 billion in cloud revenue. That’s revenue growth of 51% year-over-year for those scoring at home.
Analysts had been expecting earnings of 98 cents per share on revenue of $13.42 billion. The shares had been falling early in the month, with traders betting the trade war would begin to bite. And despite strong earnings and management showing that BABA has little to fear from the trade war, Alibaba stock has fallen again to just above $160.
However, I don’t believe this changes the underlying narrative on BABA stock. This is still a long-term growth story of company largely immune to trade tensions — even if the stock itself isn’t always.
What Trade War?
The report highlighted how despite all of the talk, many companies on both sides of the Pacific just aren’t being heavily hit by the trade war. For now at least, it’s business as usual.
The Alibaba report noted that the company has now enabled delivery of Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) products from 2,100 stores in China and helped drive new Starbucks Rewards memberships through its online stores. Starbucks is facing new competition from Blackrock (NYSE:BLK) financed Luckin Coffee, which is preparing to raise $500 million to expand its own network of over 2,000 kiosks. If consumers in China were taking the trade talk seriously, they might be abandoning the American brand, which is easy to do.
Bears had been betting that the trade war could sink BABA stock, but they have recently been outnumbered by bulls taking options the price could hit $215 per share.
Why Alibaba Matters
The New York Times talked about the slowing growth of Alibaba but that’s a function of big numbers being harder to move than smaller ones.
Analysts are now expecting Alibaba to achieve sales of $54.5 billion during the 2020 fiscal year, and earnings of $6.56 per share, which means the current stock price is just 8.2 times sales and 26.7 times next year’s earnings, both modest for a high-growth company.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 174.84.
The projected upper bound is: 172.92.
The projected lower bound is: 153.26.
The projected closing price is: 163.09.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.8103. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -130.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
ALIBABA GRP ADR closed up 2.780 at 163.430. Volume was 63% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 72% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
163.280 165.550 162.520 163.430 5,082,502
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 172.83 181.66 164.68
Volatility: 50 35 44
Volume: 4,701,834 3,089,255 4,060,077
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 0.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BABA.N at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BABA.N and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.
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