Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Best Is Yet to Come

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Best Is Yet to Come

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) Best Is Yet to Come

Once a market darling and something of a cult stock, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) has faced a number of tests and trials on its path to becoming a beloved investment vehicle both in the U.S. and abroad.

If anything, today’s Alibaba could best be described as a company in transition — and yes, change is scary but it’s also an opportunity for improvement and perhaps even a new direction for this e-commerce giant.

A Changing of the Guard

In a nation of 1.4 million, retail and particularly e-commerce is big business in China; under Chairman and Co-founder Jack Alibaba’s guidance, the company has earned an impressive market share in this space. However, the house that Jack built is undergoing a profound shift as Ma is set to retire in September, leaving a giant pair of shoes to be filled as an industry celebrity takes his final curtain call.

I remember quite well the time when Tim Cook took the legendary Steve Jobs’ place as the CEO of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL); market pundits were calling for Apple’s imminent decline as if it were the Roman Empire. They were wrong then and the Alibaba worry warts are wrong now. Current CEO Daniel Zhang, who is slated to take Ma’s place, was handpicked by Ma just as Cook was personally selected by Jobs — and of course, these decisions aren’t made lightly.

Along with the change in Alibaba’s senior management, BABA stock investors will need to contend with other ongoing developments, including the announcement of a one-to-eight stock split on July 15 as well as plans for a Hong Kong listing that could raise nearly $20 billion for the company. Personally, I see none of these developments as alarming or troublesome — no need to panic-sell as Alibaba is only proving its sensitivity to investor needs and preferences.

The Bottom Line on Alibaba

Trade-war tensions and an ultra-competitive e-commerce market have actually made me more bullish on BABA stock than ever before. After all, when the competition heats up and the dust settles, I expect the biggest and the best to remain standing — and when it comes to Chinese e-commerce, Alibaba remains second to none.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 180.66.

The projected lower bound is: 160.54.

The projected closing price is: 170.60.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.9161. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 116.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

ALIBABA GRP ADR closed up 1.910 at 170.900. Volume was 6% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 20% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
170.880 171.970 169.400 170.900 3,819,168

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 165.86 169.87 162.79
Volatility: 28 38 43
Volume: 4,652,145 4,249,245 3,970,111

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

ALIBABA GRP ADR is currently 5.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BABA.N at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BABA.N and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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