A Storm Is Brewing For U.S. Oil (USO) Exports
Two geopolitical developments in recent weeks—U.S. sanctions on Iran and the escalating U.S.-Chinese trade war—are set to reshuffle the U.S. oil flows to the world’s fastest-growing oil market, Asia.
On the one hand, the United States is pressing Iran’s oil customers to cut their Iranian crude imports by as much as possible. China is Tehran’s biggest oil buyer, and India is its second. While India is reportedly preparing for a drastic reduction of Iranian oil imports, China will continue to buy Iranian oil.
On the other hand, China is threatening to impose a 25-percent tariff on U.S. crude oil and oil products after the U.S.-Chinese trade war took a turn for the worse in recent weeks. Such a tariff would make American crude oil uncompetitive in China, and U.S. oil sellers will have to find alternative buyers for their crude to replace the volumes they are currently selling to their second-largest oil customer after Canada.
If China follows through with its threat to slap tariffs on U.S. oil imports, it would put downward pressure on the WTI Crude benchmark and widen its discount to Brent Crude, which could be make U.S. oil even more attractive to Indian buyers, according to Fielden.
Still, analysts doubt that the United States will be able to easily find alternative buyers for the oil it has been selling to China.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 14.01.
The projected upper bound is: 15.78.
The projected lower bound is: 14.42.
The projected closing price is: 15.10.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.0169. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
UNTD ST OIL FUND closed up 0.040 at 15.070. Volume was 23% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 105% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
15.110 15.170 14.980 15.070 15,415,201
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 14.86 14.01 12.50
Volatility: 26 31 28
Volume: 23,255,114 20,895,782 18,494,688
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
UNTD ST OIL FUND is currently 20.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into USO (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on USO and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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