2020: FAANGS, the Dream Investments Across the World

2020: FAANGS, the Dream Investments Across the World

$FB, $AMZN, $AAPL, $NFLX, $GOOGL

After a difficult end to Y 2018, when the group was hammered alongside the broader market the large-cap tech stocks came roaring back 


The stocks commonly called the FAANGs: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google, have posted impressive gainers through the years, with all now worth many times their IPO prices.

The notion of FAANG stocks as a powerful group of Top-performing stocks, holding sway over the markets has bitten some investors.

The Big Qs: How much of the market’s recent returns are attributable to FAANG stocks, and does their performance point to a change in the markets?

The Big As: Over the 10 years through 31 December 2018, the US broad market [1] returned an annualised 13.4%, as shown in Exhibit 1. Excluding FAANG stocks, the market returned 12.6%. The 0.8-percentage-point bump resulted from the FAANGs collectively averaging a 30.4% yearly return over the frame.

Exhibit 1: A little help from the FAANGs

Annualised US market compound returns with and without Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Alphabet (Google), Ys 2009-2018

Investors may be surprised to learn that it is actually common for a subset of stocks to drive a sizeable portion of the overall market return. 

Exhibit 2 shows that excluding the top 10% of performers each year from Y 1994 [2] to Y 2018 [3] would have reduced global market performance from 7.2% to 2.9%. Further excluding the best 25% of performers would have turned a positive return into a relatively large negative return.

Exhibit 2: Weighing the impact

Global stock market performance excluding Top performers, Ys 1994-2018

This lesson also applies to capturing the premiums associated with a company’s size and its price-to-book ratio.

Research by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French (Migration, 2006) provides evidence that these premiums are driven in large part by a subset of stocks migrating across the market.

Research has shown no reliable way to predict the Top-performing stocks. Looking at the Top 10% of stocks by performance each year since Y 1994, on average less than 20% of that group has ranked in the top 10% the following year.

The tendency for strong market performance to be concentrated in a subset of stocks is therefore a cautionary tale about the importance of diversification.

Investors with concentrated portfolios may actually miss out on the very stocks that deliver the best of what the market has to offer.

An investment approach built around broad diversification can help achieve a more reliable outcome for investors over the long term, a cool and sharp acronym or not.

Footnotes

[1] With-FAANGs portfolio formed each month including common stocks listed on NYSE, NYSE MKT and NASDAQ. Stocks are weighted by market capitalisation. Without-FAANGs formed similarly but excluding Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Alphabet (Google). Source: data from CRSP.

[2] The onset of broad coverage of all-cap stock data across developed and emerging markets.

[3] All eligible common stocks in all eligible developed and emerging markets, ranked by total return.

Have a terrific weekend

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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