US Economy Strong, Odd of a Recession Now About Zero

US Economy Strong, Odd of a Recession Now About Zero

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX

FLASH: S&P 500 extended is winning streak to 8 days running

The odds of a recession hitting the US economy are “all at about Zero,” Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Kevin Hassett said Monday.

“You saw it in the jobs numbers, but income growth is really taking off,” Mr. Hassett said on TV early Monday. “We have the bottom 10% of the income distribution, north of 6% according to our latest estimate…if your income just went up 6%, then your consumption should go up by about that this year and I think that that gives us a lot of downside insurance for a bad year.”

On Friday, the Labor Department reported that payrolls rose by 196,000 after a 33,000 advance, and the jobs numbers also point that there is a low likelihood for a recession.

“I’ve got a bunch of models that give you recession odds, and they’re all at about zero right now,” he said.

He went on to say, that he thinks the growth forecast is on target.

“Right now we’re looking at a 2% in Q-1. The thing is that 1 of the patterns we have seen in the data since 2010 is the Q-1 is about 1% below the rest of the year. We are on track to get a 3% year. You saw that in in the jobs numbers too.”

Trumpeting a strong US economy President Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve board, Stephen Moore, hailed the lowest unemployment rate “since the Beatles.”

Just in

The US economy is growing at a 2.3% annualized rate in Q-1, based on latest economic data on factory output, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed Monday.

This was faster than the 2.1 percent pace for the first-quarter gross domestic product that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP program calculated on April 2.

After Monday’s manufacturing report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to Q-1 real GDP growth increased from 0.15 percentage points to 0.24 percentage points. The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, 17 April

Monday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -83.97 at 26341.02, NAS Comp+15.19 at 7953.88, S&P 500 +3.03 at 2895.77

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at 744-M/shares exchanged

  • NAS Comp +19.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.1% YTD
  • S&P 500 +15.5% YTD
  • DJIA +12.9% YTD

HeffX-LTN’s overall technical outlook for the major US stock market indexes is Bullish in here.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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