February 22, 2012 -- Updated January 20, 2012 00:25 HKT
World Market Snap Shot BAC, MS, GOOG, EKDKQ
Reds Bull Trader Alert: S&P 500 rises most since Y 1987 as Bernanke helps offset Europe fears.
US stocks are off to the best start in 25 yrs as investors believe Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has done enough to insulate the economy from Europe’s debt crisis.
The S&P 500 has gained 4%, the most since it rose 10% over the 1st 11 days in Y 1987, according to data.
Stocks are overcoming earnings that trailed estimates by the widest margin in 3 yrs as improvements in hiring, manufacturing and car sales extend the biggest Q-4 advance since Y 2003.
Mr. Bernanke has left the target rate on overnight loans between banks unchanged since the end of Y 2008, the longest stretch since at least Y 1971, data show.
The policy may drive more investors toward equities after yields on 10-yr Treasuries finished Y 2011 within a 0.25 pt of a record low and the economy grew at an estimated 3.1% rate last Quarter.
The S&P 500 advanced in 7 of the 1st 8 days this year, something that has occurred 8 times since Y 1900, data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co. show. The mean return those years was 16%, the data show.
About US$640-B has been added to the value of American shares this year and the S&P 500 tapped a 6-month high yesterday, as economic reports outweighed concern that downgrades for European nations would worsen the debt crisis.
The average forecast for US gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year has been rising since October. From a low of 2%, the median estimate in a survey of 72 economists has climbed to 2.3%, including a 0.2-pt increase on 12 January that represented the biggest 1-day gain since projections for Y 2012 began, according to data.
Optimism about the economy is helping investors shrug off Q-4 earnings that have trailed estimates. Profit (SPX) fell short of analyst forecasts by an average of 4.3% among the 8 S&P 500 companies that posted results in the 1st week of earnings season, the data show. Three other Quarters with a worse 1st week of earnings season were in Y’s 2007 and 2008 as the economy was slipping into to the worst recession since the 1930′s.
The S&P 500 increased 0.49% to 1,314.50 Thursday, the highest level since July 26. It climbed 1.4% over 4 days last week, reaching a 5-month high of 1,292.48 on 11 January.
With the S&P 500 having broken above the Key 1,300 mark, it looks set to tap the 1,360-1,370, the May 2011 high, and I believe we will see it during this earnings season.
US Stocks: Wall Street rose for the 3rd day running Thursday, sparked by results from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and as the latest jobless claims dropped to a near 4-yr low.
The S&P 500 hit a fresh 5-month high, with the industrials, consumer discretionary stocks and financials leading gainers.
BAC, MS, GOOG, EKDKQ
| DJIA | 12,624.00 | 45.03 | 0.36% | 16:30 |
| S&P 500 | 1,314.50 | 6.46 | 0.49% | 16:32 |
| NAS | 2,788.33 | 18.62 | 0.67% | 16:58 |
Tech shares advanced ahead of earnings from a number of giants. But after the closing bell, shares of Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) fell 10% to 575.50 following its results.
In the regular session, Bank of America Corp rose 2.4% to 6.96 after it reported it swung to Q-4 profit from a year-ago loss. Morgan Stanley reported a loss that was narrower than expected, sparking a 5.4% rise in its stock to 18.28.
Financial shares have rallied since the beginning of the year. The S&P financial index .GSPF is up 8.1% so far in Y 2012, helping to push the S&P 500 up 4.5% for the year.
Semiconductor stocks also advanced, with the PHLX Sox Index .SOX rising 1.9%.
The broad market’s path higher was relatively choppy and without much volume, but nonetheless it enabled the stock market to book its best close since last Summer.
The S&P 500 is now up more than 20% from the 52-wk intra-day low set this past fall and only about 4% below the multi-year high that it set last Spring.
Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 50,000 to 352,000, which is considerably less than the tally of 385,000 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled, and the lowest tally since Y 2008.
Housing starts for December had been widely expected to hit an annualized rate of 673,000 units, but instead came in at a rate of 657,000, down from the prior month rate of 685,000 units
Advancing Sectors: Industrials +0.9%, Financials +0.9%, Consumer Discretionary +0.9%, Tech +0.7%, Energy +0.4%, Consumer Staples +0.2%, Telecom +0.2%
Unchanged: Health Care
Declining Sectors: Utilities -0.8%
Volume and Breadth: trade totaled about 7.6-B/shrs on the NYSE, AMEX and NAS, above the daily average of 6.68-B/shrs, and the highest since 16 December. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones by a ratio of about 2 to 1 on the NYSE and on the NAS, by about 7 to 5.
US Treasuries saw heavy selling for much of the morning before settling into an afternoon trading range near session lows. Longer dated paper saw the heaviest selling as the long bond tumbled more than 2 handles before seeing some light buying.
Thursday’s selling ran yields at the back of the curve up as much as 9 bps as the 10-yr settled at 1.972%, its highest level since 10 January.
A steeper yield curve played out over the course of today’s session as the 2-10-yr spread widened to 174 bps.
Little data Friday with only existing home sales (10) due out.
| Date | Symbol | Price | Technical Analysis | Support | Resistance |
| 19 Jan 2012 | QQQ | 59.76 | Neutral (0.12) | 50.03 | |
| 19 Jan 2012 | DIA | 126.07 | Neutral (0.16) | 105.08 | |
| 19 Jan 2012 | SPY | 131.22 | Neutral (0.13) | 108.35 |
|
INDEX
|
VALUE | CHANGE | % CHANGE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 12,624.00 | 45.03 | 0.36% | 16:30 |
| S&P 500 | 1,314.50 | 6.46 | 0.49% | 16:32 |
| NAS | 2,788.33 | 18.62 | 0.67% | 16:58 |
| S&P/TSX | 12,380.70 | 53.17 | 0.43% | 16:35 |
| MEXICO IPC | 37,680.10 | 173.30 | 0.46% | 16:07 |
| BRAZIL BOVESPA | 61,926.70 | 203.83 | 0.33% | 15:16 |
Europe, Africa and Middle East
| INDEX | VALUE | CHANGE | % CHANGE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 Pr | 2,435.04 | 44.40 | 1.86% | 11:50 |
| FTSE 100 | 5,741.15 | 38.78 | 0.68% | 01/19 |
| CAC 40 | 3,328.94 | 64.01 | 1.96% | 11:45 |
| DAX | 6,416.26 | 61.69 | 0.97% | 01/19 |
| IBEX 35 | 8,603.80 | 183.10 | 2.17% | 11:38 |
| FTSE MIB | 15,652.00 | 373.99 | 2.45% | 11:30 |
| AEX | 320.48 | 4.96 | 1.57% | 12:10 |
| OMX STOCKHOLM 30 | 1,037.82 | 9.20 | 0.89% | 11:30 |
| SWISS MARKET | 6,194.45 | 78.22 | 1.28% | 11:31 |
Asia-Pacific
| INDEX | VALUE | CHANGE | % CHANGE | TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIKKEI 225 | 8,639.68 | 89.10 | 1.04% | 01/19 |
| HANG SENG | 19,942.90 | 256.03 | 1.30% | 01/19 |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 4,214.77 | -3.11 | -0.07% | 01/19 |
Commodities
| VALUE | CHANGE | % CHANGE | TIME | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nymex Crude Future | 100.55 | -0.04 | -0.04 | 16:45 |
| Nymex Henry Hub Future | 2.30 | -0.17 | -6.96 | 16:45 |
| Gold 100 oz Future (USD oz.) | 1,657.70 | -2.20 | -0.13 | 16:46 |
| UBS Bloomberg CMCI | 1,570.87 | 9.99 | 0.64 | 16:19 |
Currencies
| CURRENCY | VALUE | CHANGE | % CHANGE | DATE/TIME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR-USD | 1.2970 | 0.0106 | 0.8240% | 16:57 |
| USD-JPY | 77.1012 | 0.2763 | 0.3596% | 16:56 |
| GBP-USD | 1.5491 | 0.0052 | 0.3366% | 16:57 |
| USD-CAD | 1.0114 | 0.0002 | 0.0237% | 16:56 |
strong>Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.
www.livetradingnews.com
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