Brad Gray’s tips and insights for Warwick Farm on Saturday. There are winners to be found for nine races!
The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is in the True with the first event timed to jump at 12:45pm.
|Race 1 – 12:45PM THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS NSW LONHRO PLATE (1100 METRES)|
Make ‘Em Cry on top. Certainly don’t want to make a habit of tipping horses at their second start off big-priced debut wins but there are always exceptions to the rules. Doesn’t seem that long ago Yankee Rose won on debut at $41! This colt didn’t have much idea of what he was doing at Kembla Grange and despite hanging out severely at the finish, he was still pulling away from Burbank across the line. The runner up protested but it was dismissed due to the dominant margin at the finish. He looks a real running two-year-old, by Exceed And Excel and out of Tears I Cry, and at the price, happy to gamble that he can lead all the way again to remain undefeated.
Danger: Everything we’ve seen from Osorno so far suggests he wants further than 1100m but his fifth in the Breeders’ was a cracker before being a bit tight for room at Rosehill last start. Oxford Tycoon gives away race experience but has looked outstanding in two trials, the first alongside Satin Slipper who has been trialling nicely herself since her Gimcrack win back in September but maps awkwardly from a wide draw.
How to play it: Make ‘Em Cry EACH WAY ($9.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
A wayward Make ‘Em Cry winning at Kembla
|Race 2 – 1:25PM DAVALI THOROUGHBREDS CUP (2400 METRES)|
Forget Great Glen went around last time out. It was too bad to be true. He has been back to the trials since – a recipe that often works well for Chris Waller – and looked sharp running third over 1030m. His form prior to his flop was rock solid with a one length defeat behind Imperial Aviator reading well for a race like this. Glyn Schofield knows the horse very well and has unlocked the key to him in riding him on the speed and letting him grind away at the finish. Expecting him to bounce back in a suitable race where leaders certainly don’t map to be disadvantaged.
Danger: Xebec is yet to win in Australia but out to 2400m looks to suit fourth up. He stuck to his task last start, clocking 34.57s via Punters’ Intel for his last 600m, which was the quickest in the race. Interesting to note that Irish hoop Declan McDonogh rode the horse in all 19 of his overseas starts before he was transferred to Australia. The duo are reunited! Gamblestown doesn’t make a habit of winning and is untried at 2400m, but he’s the class runner. He’s racing well at the moment despite his convictions.
How to play it: Great Glen EACH WAY ($8 TAB Fixed Odds)
Great Glen’s second to Imperial Aviator three starts back
|Race 3 – 2:00PM INGLIS SPRINT (1100 METRES)|
She Will Reign goes around ‘Winx odds’ now that Nature Strip has been scratched. It’s a shame we’ve been denied what would have been a great contest but I’m sure connections of She Will Reign won’t lose any sleep. The Golden Slipper winner should have little trouble claiming the $142,250 first prize. She is a whopping 35 rating points above Diamond Tathagata, but being a colt, he has to give her 2kg. The next best rated is Za Zi Ba who sits 41 benchmark points behind She Will Reign but, like the rest of the field, meet her on level weights at 54kg. You’ll be doing well to find a better placed horse this entire racing season. Hard to be too enthused at $1.35 but she should get the job done.
Danger: Take the quinella with Acqume. She is a handy filly under the flying Brad Widdup operation. First up last time in she ran a cracker at Warwick Farm over this same trip behind Alizee and Songlike. She has trialled well ahead of her return and although drawn a touch awkwardly in the small field she is versatile enough to run well from anywhere. Limbo Soul has been very quietly handled in her two trials back. She’s a good talent and is a big market watch.
How to play it: She Will Reign/Acqume QUINELLA
She Will Reign’s Warwick Farm trial – Jan 15
|Race 4 – 2:35PM TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1200 METRES)|
Star Boy had been around the mark before getting his dues in a Muswellbrook maiden last start. It was a dominant win. Prior to that he ran a closing second to the handy Madame Pauline and first up he bucked, overraced, circled the field and still only went down in the shadows of the post. He is only lightly raced and looked to appreciate getting out beyond 1100m for the first time last start. With a clean getaway he’ll put himself thereabouts and with 53kg on his back, give this race a shake for Brett Cavanough and Jay Ford.
Danger: Under The Thumb is flying at the moment and would be on top if it wasn’t for the 1200m query. He ran on hard three back behind Victorem and All Stand in a Highway over 1000m while last start he ran second at Canterbury behind All Charisma over 1100m. Over the odds at $14. Try A Lil Harder has returned in brilliant form after a very lengthy break. Seems she has forgotten her bad habit of missing the kick. Danny Williams has his stable airborne so respect the progressive galloper El Mo.
How to play it: Star Boy WIN ($9 TAB Fixed Odds) and Under The Thumb ($14)
Star Boy’s Muswellbrook maiden win last start
|Race 5 – 3:10PM INGLIS CLASSIC (1200 METRES)|
Ballistica has really caught the eye in her two trial outings. She has won both of them and displayed a lovey turn of acceleration when asked for an effort on both occasions. Off her trials, the daughter of Smart Missile doesn’t look to be blessed with a great deal of early speed but hoping Jason Collett can use her barrier 3 draw to settle at least within the first half. Once she sees daylight in the straight, she’ll be able to display that devastating turn of foot. She gives away race experience to a few key rivals but being on her home track can’t hurt her claims.
Danger: We’ve already seen Sanctimonious in Sydney when fifth in the Inglis Nuresy. It was a monster effort there with Punters’ Intel revealing he was the only runner to break 12s home (11.95s) despite covering the most ground in the race (1004.6m). Has won at Moonee Valley since. The knock is where he gets to in the run. Include Sunreel and Pembroke Castle in multiples. Queenslander Snicki Minaj shouldn’t be dismissed either.
How to play it: Ballistica WIN ($4.40 TAB Fixed Odds)
Ballistica displayed her turn of foot in a Gosford trial – Jan 31
|Race 6 – 3:45PM AQUIS FARM ESKIMO PRINCE STAKES (1200 METRES)|
Siding with Assimilate simply due to his price. Team Snowden made no secret of how much learning this colt still had to do. To still achieve what he did last campaign suggests his future is very bright. We saw him run an enormous race in the Ming Dynasty and then run fifth in the Golden Rose but outside of the winner Trapeze Artist it was probably the run of the race. You’re getting the price because there’s a perception that he’ll be better out to 1400m and a mile. I’m not so convinced. He didn’t do much in his one trial but that’s just him. Saves it for the track. Like the one trial to keep him nice and fresh. He’ll be buried away on the fence from barrier 2 but if Tye Angland can get the breaks he can reel these in. Too good a horse to let go around at $7 (in from $8 already). Might be the last time for a while that we get those kind of odds about him.
Danger: Siege Of Quebec was off the bit at the 600m first up but picked himself up to run sharp closing splits of 10.80s/11.36s home according to Punters’ Intel. He has miler written all over him but Brenton Avdulla will know what needs to be done to win here. He’ll have him moving before the turn. Kementari tuned up for this with a lovely trial at Warwick Farm. He is classy but is he sharp enough for 1200m? Brave Song earns a crack at this level now.
How to play it: Assimilate WIN ($7 TAB Fixed Odds)
Assimilate’s monster Ming Dynasty run last campaign
|Race 7 – 4:25PM YARRAMAN PARK BREEDERS CLASSIC (1200 METRES)|
Danish Twist is the forgotten runner in the Breeders Classic. First up last time in she ran a luckless seventh in the Sheraco Stakes slipping home in 33.03s according to Punters’ Intel, despite a severely interrupted passage. She’d have sailed past Bonny O’reilly with even luck there. She’ll be buried a couple of pairs back in the run and although it might sound strange, that set up suits this mare. She settles much better when covered up as opposed to being in clear air on the outside. Another of her recent fresh runs saw her run a close third to Takedown and Our Boy Malachi in the G2 Premiere. Her first up stats of 6:0-1-1 are deceiving and why you are getting the big odds.
Danger: Egyptian Symbol was truckloaded in the Magic Millions sprint and despite punters leaving the money in the bag, she ran okay to finish third beaten 2.35L by the classy Viddora. She likes a bit of sting out which she won’t get but she profiles well in this race. Memes gets on pace favours. The saddle slipped last week in the Expressway so forget that effort. She’ll be paddling late over 1200m but is too honest to dismiss.
How to play it: Danish Twist EACH WAY ($9 TAB Fixed Odds)
Danish Twist first up last preparation in the Sheraco
|Race 8 – 5:05PM BOWNESS STUD MILE (1600 METRES)|
Show A Star appears to be thriving under the care of Bjorn Baker. You can see your own reflection in his coat at the moment. The six-year-old kicked off with a third to subsequent Carrington Stakes-winner Lanciato before winning at Rosehill second up. The narrow margin at the finish doesn’t do him justice with the son of Excites using plenty of early petrol to find the front. It was a brave win and you can only expect further improvement third up. He is on his new home patch here, loves the mile (8:4-1-0) and will take plenty of catching with 53.5kg on his back. Looks the best of the day.
Danger: If the likes of Coolring, who is now with Joe Cleary, and Supply And Demand are hell bent on leading, More To Gain will be the one closing hardest. He kicks off over the mile which suggests the work has been poured into him. He peaked noticeably on his run first up last time in. Has been a while now since he has been down on 53kg. His stats over the mile read 4:2-2-0 and that is a pimple away from being three wins. That was the last time we saw him, where he bled too.
How to play it: Show A Star WIN ($2.50 TAB Fixed Odds)
Show A Star’s brave last start win
|Race 9 – 5:45PM SLEDMERE STUD DASH (1000 METRES)|
One for the thrill seekers. Dal Cielo goes in on top on the back of his excellent 1000m form the last time we saw him. It’s a specialist trip the 1000m dash. Backing the five-year-old certainly comes with its risks though. He has had nearly a year on the sidelines and has a nasty habit of missing the start. He does maintain his association with Glyn Schofield though who is certainly well aware of his tricks. His win at Warwick Farm last campaign was brilliant. If he is on his best,
Danger: Very tricky race with Artlee and Hieroglyphics, who are both hard in the market too, also resuming off long layoffs. Of those two, the race sets up better for short course specialist Hieroglyphics. She’ll be giving a start from the wide draw but she historically flies fresh and looked very sharp in her one trial. Suspect Artlee will need the run to blow out the cobwebs. My Favourite, you guessed it, also hasn’t be sighted for a long time, but this lightly raced eight-year-old is a talent. Echo Effect worthy of consideration too.
How to play it: Dal Cielo WIN ($5 TAB Fixed Odds)
Dal Cielo’s Warwick Farm win, albeit over a year ago
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