Wall Street Trading Outlook USD, SPY

Wall Street Trading Outlook USD, SPY

Wall Street Trading Outlook USD, SPY

Asian markets made small gains overnight as Wall Street’s record surge began to slow and oil prices failed to maintain their upward momentum.

Oil prices fell in response to rumours about production levels. They remain a long way from the $60 a barrel level that some industry commentators predicted for the second half of 2016. Volatility is likely to continue.

The US dollar rose again slightly, boosted by Friday’s strong employment figures and yesterday’s confident mood in the markets. Speculation is increasing that the Fed will increase interest rates later this year. The British pound slipped again as the markets responded to reports that the Bank of England is considering further easing. Parity with the dollar and euro is beginning to look like a realistic possibility. If nothing else, UK exports may receive a boost in the short term. The main investor focus today is likely to be on stocks as more Q2 earnings are released.

US Dollar

US DOLLAR INDEX closed up 0.040 at 96.441. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
96.385 96.524 96.313 96.441 8,666

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 96.05 95.62 96.61
Volatility: 10 11 10
Volume: 867 173 43

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

US DOLLAR INDEX is currently 0.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into .DXY (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .DXY and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY)

SPDR S&P 500 closed down -0.130 at 218.050. Volume was 57% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
218.400 218.520 217.740 218.050 39,906,480

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 216.85 211.98 204.59
Volatility: 7 16 18
Volume: 67,670,424 96,622,976 115,162,216

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

SPDR S&P 500 is currently 6.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of SPY at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on SPY and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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