The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.5 percent in October to 92.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in September, and a 0.6 percent decline in August.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.7 percent in October to 96.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent decline in September, and a 0.1 percent decline in August.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan has been declining since April of this year, and as a result its six-month growth rate has fallen deeper into negative territory. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Japan increased in October for the first time in four months, but its six-month change remains negative as well. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that the downturn in the economy may continue in the coming months.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

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