US Real Estate S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

US Real Estate S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for March 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.2% annual gain in March, down from 5.3% the previous month. The 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composites’ year-over-year gains remained unchanged at 4.7% and 5.4%, respectively, from the prior month.

Portland, Seattle, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities with another month of annual price increases. Portland led the way with a 12.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with 10.8%, and Denver with a 10.0% increase. Ten cities reported greater price increases in the year ending March 2016 versus the year ending February 2016.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.7% in March. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.8% month-over-month increase while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.9% increase in March. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.1% month-over-month increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.8% increase, and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.9% month-over-month increase. After seasonal adjustment, six cities saw prices rise, one city was unchanged, and 13 cities experienced negative monthly price changes.

ANALYSIS
“Home prices are continuing to rise at a 5% annual rate, a pace that has held since the start of 2015,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The economy is supporting the price increases with improving labor markets, falling unemployment rates and extremely low mortgage rates. Another factor behind rising home prices is the limited supply of homes on the market. The number of homes currently on the market is less than two percent of the number of households in the U.S., the lowest percentage seen since the mid-1980s.

“Price movements vary across the country. The Pacific Northwest and the west continue to be the strongest regions. Seattle, Portland, Oregon and Denver had the largest year-over-year price increases. These cities also saw some of the largest declines in unemployment rates among the 20 cities included in the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices. The northeast and upper mid-west regions were at the other end of the ranking. The four cities with the smallest year-over-year prices gains were Washington DC, Chicago, New York, and Cleveland. The unemployment rates in Chicago and Cleveland rose from March 2015 to March 2016.”

SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below summarizes the results for March 2016. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

March 2016

March/February

February/January

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

127.76

1.1%

0.6%

6.5%

Boston

183.80

1.0%

-0.1%

4.3%

Charlotte

136.93

0.9%

0.3%

4.3%

Chicago

130.01

1.0%

-0.3%

1.9%

Cleveland

108.05

0.1%

-0.7%

2.8%

Dallas

159.67

1.4%

0.5%

8.5%

Denver

179.20

1.6%

1.0%

10.0%

Detroit

103.93

0.7%

0.1%

6.2%

Las Vegas

147.13

0.7%

0.2%

6.0%

Los Angeles

244.52

0.7%

0.6%

6.5%

Miami

208.97

1.1%

0.1%

6.2%

Minneapolis

146.58

0.8%

-0.4%

3.9%

New York

179.19

0.0%

-0.3%

2.7%

Phoenix

157.60

0.3%

0.2%

5.6%

Portland

195.29

1.5%

0.8%

12.3%

San Diego

221.35

1.0%

0.1%

6.2%

San Francisco

223.90

2.3%

1.1%

8.5%

Seattle

193.02

2.4%

1.1%

10.8%

Tampa

179.84

1.1%

0.6%

7.6%

Washington

209.99

0.8%

-0.3%

1.5%

Composite-10

198.68

0.8%

0.2%

4.7%

Composite-20

184.50

0.9%

0.2%

5.4%

U.S. National

176.91

0.7%

0.1%

5.2%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through March 2016

Table 2 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

March/February Change (%)

February/January Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

1.1%

0.8%

0.6%

1.4%

Boston

1.0%

0.7%

-0.1%

0.6%

Charlotte

0.9%

0.1%

0.3%

0.5%

Chicago

1.0%

0.9%

-0.3%

1.0%

Cleveland

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.7%

0.7%

Dallas

1.4%

0.8%

0.5%

0.8%

Denver

1.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.4%

Detroit

0.7%

1.0%

0.1%

1.2%

Las Vegas

0.7%

0.3%

0.2%

1.0%

Los Angeles

0.7%

0.6%

0.6%

1.1%

Miami

1.1%

0.6%

0.1%

0.6%

Minneapolis

0.8%

1.3%

-0.4%

0.8%

New York

0.0%

0.5%

-0.3%

0.2%

Phoenix

0.3%

0.1%

0.2%

0.5%

Portland

1.5%

0.9%

0.8%

1.0%

San Diego

1.0%

1.0%

0.1%

0.2%

San Francisco

2.3%

0.9%

1.1%

1.6%

Seattle

2.4%

1.0%

1.1%

1.2%

Tampa

1.1%

1.0%

0.6%

1.0%

Washington

0.8%

0.4%

-0.3%

0.0%

Composite-10

0.8%

0.8%

0.2%

0.6%

Composite-20

0.9%

0.9%

0.2%

0.7%

U.S. National

0.7%

0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through March 2016

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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