US Major Markets Sentiment: the Bulls Vs the Bears

Posted by: : Paul EbelingPosted on: January 6, 2014 US Major Markets Sentiment: the Bulls Vs the Bears

US Major Markets Sentiment: the Bulls Vs the Bears

Senmtiment Indicators

VIX: 13.76; -0.47

VXN: 15.85; -0.03

VXO: 12.4; -0.19

Put/Call Ratio (PCR) CBOE: 0.9; +0.08

the Bulls Vs the Bears:

The extreme Bulls and Bears readings continue, last week the  Bulls at 61.6%, and the Bears 15.2%.

Everyone, everywhere, all over the place we are hearing Bullish reports on the US stock market.  Yes, there is always new money to start a New Year, so there is some upside left, but how much is the Big Q.

The civilian investors seem to beleive that this market has risen just on the back of Fed stimulus and they are not excited to get in here yet.

 

The polls are showing that the US consumer is distrustfull of the US economy and the financial markets.

Indeed, when looking at  AAII survey it shows more Bearishness: Bulls fell to 43.1% Vs 55.1%, and the Bear rose to 29.3% from 18.5%.

The picture is this: the index charts look Bearish relative to the market’s position now, and that indicator will likely play a Key role for a healthy pullback.

Extreme bullishness was this high in Y 2007 at the crash, in was the same in early Y 2005 too. These a facts, and this time it will not be “different” either.

The Bulls ate at 61.6% Vs 60.0 last. This is an extreme reading.

For your reference: the Bulls were last at 35%, the mark for Bullishness, in early June 2012 when this current rally began.

The Bears are at : 15.2% Vs 14.0 last. The Bears have in this egion for the 3rd week running. How low can they go?

For your reference: 35% is the mark for a good Northside  indicator. And Bearishness hit a 5 yr high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since Y 1995, extreme negative sentiment for sure.

Keep a sharp eye out, this is a continuing story.

HeffX-LTN

Paul Ebeling

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Paul Ebeling

Pattern Recognition Analyst, equities, commodities, forex
Paul Ebeling is best known for his work as writer and publisher of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly-regarded, weekly financial market letter, where he enjoys an international audience among opinion makers, business leaders, and respected organizations. Something of a pioneer in online stock market and commodities discussion and analysis, Ebeling has been online since 1994. He has studied and worked in the global financial and stock markets since 1984.
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