US Housing Recovery Could Take 50 Yrs
US Housing Recovery Could Take 50 Yrs
The housing market has begun to rebound, but it remains to be seen whether the recovery is sustainable, Yale University economist Robert Shiller said. He warned that it could take 50 yrs to return to its previous levels.
The US Commerce Department reported last week that new-home sales rose 5.7% in September from August to their highest level in more than 2 yrs. Meanwhile, housing starts ascended to their highest seasonally adjusted annual rate in the past 4 yrs.
Then came news this week that the S&P/Case-Shiller index of home values in 20 cities rose 2% in August from a year earlier, the biggest Y-Y gain since July 2010.
This may well be the bottom for housing for some years,” Shiller told Yahoo. But next week’s election, the 31 December Fiscal Cliff and Europe’s debt crisis could throw housing for a loop.
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In coming years, home prices will be depressed by sales from retiring baby boomers moving to urban areas from the suburbs, he says.
“It can get big as it was again maybe in 50 yrs. This housing bubble was a once-in-a-lifetime thing, I imagine,” Mr. Shiller said. “Although, you know, the market might be more volatile, so the future is always unknown.”
“My general idea is that we’re not going into a nationwide boom and not many places will show booms in the next few years,” he said.
Some analysts are more Bullish than Mr. Shiller. All the things that were really holding back housing are finally starting to lift.
It really is tough to find any bad signs here. Inventories are very, very lean. Assuming the economy remains on track, housing should continue to improve for the rest of the year and into Y 2013.
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Linda Johnson,
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Sales@Heffcap.com
Singapore
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Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699
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