US Agriculture (Grains & Meats) Market Report

Wheat Market Recap

Mar Wheat finished + 4.50 at 583.75, 3.75 off the high and + 6.50 from the low.

Jul Wheat closed + 5 at 620. This was + 7 from the low and 1.25 off the high.

Mar Wheat closed 0.0450 higher on the session but this left the market down 0.1225 on the week.

A weaker USD and less volatility in financial markets this morning helped to spark early buying support.

The turn up in the other grains and talk of the oversold technical condition for the market basis traditional technical indicators and basis the COT report added to the positive tone.

Large and small speculators combined, non-reportable and non-commercial, held a net Short position of 73,217 contracts as of December 6th.

More rain and snow moving into the southern plains this weekend and talk of revisions higher for the Argentina Wheat size are factors which may have helped to limit the advance.

A private forecaster sees Wheat and Soybean planted area for next year at 57.056-M acres as compared with 54.4-M this year and 53.6-M last year.

March Oats closed up 2.25 at 301.25. This was + 2.50 from the low and 5.75 off the high.

Corn Market Recap

Mar Corn finished + 4 at 583, 4.50 off the high and + 5.50 from the low.

May Corn closed + 4 at 591.75. This was + 5.25 from the low and 4.25 off the high.

Mar Corn closed 0.04 higher on the session but closed down 0.1125 on the week.

A weaker tone to the USD and a recovery bounce in Gold plus a more stable tone to the US stock market helped to support the market early and weather concerns added to the buying support to push the market above yesterday’s highs.

A mostly dry forecast for Argentina and southern Brazil into next week and maybe longer for parts of Argentina has help spark talk of stress for some of the crops which have seen rainfall well below normal for December helped to spark increased buying support. Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 205,232 tons of US Corn to Japan.

Solid gains in Soybean and talk of the oversold technical condition of the market added to the positive tone.

A private forecaster sees Corn planted area for Y 2012 at 94.389-M acres as compared with 91.9-M this year and 88.2-M last year.

January Rice finished + 0.02 at 13.685, 0.185 off the high and + 0.085 from the low.

Soybean Complex Market Recap

Jan Soybean finished + 18.25 at 1130, 1 off the high and + 18.50 from the low.

Mar Soybean closed + 18.25 at 1139.50. This was + 18.50 from the low and .25 off the high.

Jan Soymeal closed + 7.4 at 290.3. This was + 7.4 from the low and 0.2 off the high.

Jan Soybean Oil finished + 0.57 at 49.55, 0.06 off the high and + 0.63 from the low.

Jan Soybean closed 0.1825 higher on the session and this allowed the market to gain 0.23 for the week.

A more positive tilt to outside market forces plus threatening weather for southern Brazil and Argentina helped to support active buying and a push to the highest level since December 9th. China futures closed higher for the 4th session in a row and this helped to support. Palm Oil futures traded higher overnight.

Thoughts that the market has already priced-in a Bearish export outlook, talk of the oversold condition basis recent COT reports and strength in the other grains added to the positive tone.

Higher trade for Gold and the stock market has helped relieve some of the recent selling pressures as there appears to be less concern for a meltdown in Europe.

A private forecaster sees Soybean planted area for Y 2012 at 74.6-M acres as compared with 75-M this year and 77.4-M last year.

Cattle Market Recap

Feb Cattle finished 65 pts lower on the session which was up sharply from the lows of the day but this left the market closing up 5 pts on the week.

The market pushed sharply lower on the session this morning even with a positive tilt to outside market forces. Traders indicated active Long liquidation selling ahead of the USDA Cattle-on-Feed report for release after the close.

While the stock market and Gold pushed higher this morning, traders remain concerned that the report will show a hefty supply of Cattle on feedlots and that Beef prices will be impacted by weakening Global demand due to a slowdown in Europe.

For the report, traders see placements about unchanged from last year, with a range of 3% up or down. Marketings are expected to be down 1-2% from last year and On-Feed supply is expected near 3.5-4.0% above last year.

Cash Cattle traded 2.00 lower on the week in Kansas to 118.00. Boxed-Beef cut-out values at mid-session came in at 190.32 which is + 1.48 from yesterday and up from 185.14 last week at this time

Hog Market Recap

Feb Hogs closed down 227 pts on the session and this left the market down 327 pts for the week. The market traded sharply lower on the session into the mid-day and pushed down to the lowest level since late May as a Long liquidation selling trend helped to pressure.

With exports representing near 23% of total production per month in the recent past, traders remain concerned over the possibility of declining exports due to weakening Global economies and the potential impact on prices “if” US consumers need to absorb the extra Pork.

Higher trade in Pork cut-out values this week is clashing with continued weakness in the cash market to hold the market in a long liquidation mode. Iowa/Minnesota direct trade this morning came in at an average price of 80.34, up 0.07 on the day.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.

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Posted by Shayne Heffernan on Dec 19th, 2011and filed underAgriculture, Commodities, Latest News, Meat & Livestock, Oil, Paul Ebeling.You can follow any responses to this entry through theRSS 2.0Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.