Unlike US Consumers, China’s Consumer Plan More Spending

Unlike US Consumers, China’s Consumer Plan More Spending

Unlike US Consumers, China’s Consumer Plan More Spending

Most Chinese consumers will continue to spend in Y 2016 despite slowing economic growth and market volatility, according to research by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

About 75% of Chinese consumers plan to maintain or increase their spending this year, down from 81% in Y 2015, according to the consumer sentiment survey conducted by the BCG Center for Customer Insight.

The 2 Key drivers of growth are that consumers have more disposable income and they are willing to spend more, led by upper-middle-class and affluent households, younger consumers, and those employed in high-paying services, the survey pointed out.

More than 40% of Chinese urban households are in the middle class and affluent (MAC) category.

China is seeing the rise of the UMC (upper-middle-class) households and small-city MACs, and the emergence of a new generation of younger, happier to spend, sophisticated consumers.

By Y 2020, UMC and affluent households will have almost 2X’d to about 100-M and will account for 30% of the urban population. The spending intentions of this group will remain constant, and the spending growth rate of 17% will be rapid.

Almost 30%, the same as in Y 2015 are planning to spend more this year.

A Key reason for the spending resilience among UMC and affluent consumers is that 50% of UMC consumers and 75% of affluent consumers are employed in the high-end service sector.

China’s younger generation is growing quickly in both numbers and income.

Those aged 18 to 30 years old will likely make up more than 33% of the urban population by Y 2020. Their consumption is growing at a 14% annual rate, 2X the pace of the “last generation,” those older than 35. The young generation’s share of total consumption is projected to increase from 45 to 53% by Y 2020.

“Consumption in Y 2016 will be tantamount to consumers’ moving from the fast lane to the middle lane on the economic highway. They are not pulling into the emergency lane,” said Jeff Walters, a BCG partner who oversaw the research.

Chinese consumers like to trade up, but the mix of objects of desire is undergoing some transition, the survey found.

Infant and baby products, consumer electronics and financial services remain the Top 3 that consumers are most likely to trade up. Personal care products, such as skin care and beauty, and travel and vacations are moving up the list, too. Cars and durable goods are moving down, perhaps indicating that consumers are postponing big-ticket purchases.

Recent stock market volatility has had little impact on Chinese consumers’ daily lives, including consumption, while housing-market stability is a much more critical consideration for Chinese consumers, who continue to be optimistic about housing prices, the survey showed.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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