Trump is Catching Clinton in Youth Vote Harvard Study Says

Trump is Catching Clinton in Youth Vote Harvard Study Says

Trump is Catching Clinton in Youth Vote Harvard Study Says

Among the most likely voters ages 18 to 29, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by nearly two to one and Libertarian Gary Johnson by three to one, finds a new national poll of America’s 18- to 29- year-olds by Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP), located at the John F. Kennedy School of Government.

Among likely young voters, Clinton garners 45%, compared to 23% for Trump and 13% for Johnson. Nearly one in five (19%) remain undecided. The IOP’s newest poll results – its 30th release since 2000 – looks at young voters’ opinions before the 2016 National Conventions. A detailed report on the poll’s findings is available online http://bit.ly/HarvardIOPSummerPoll2016.  Join the conversation on Twitter using #HarvardIOPPoll.

“At the Harvard Institute of Politics, we think it’s important to the future of our country that political and civic leaders take seriously the voices of the Millennials, many of whom are leading now and will lead in the future. They will be responsible for creating the future of politics,” said Maggie Williams, Director of Harvard Institute of Politics.

The KnowledgePanel® survey of 1,001 18- to 29- year-old U.S. citizens with a margin of error of +/– 3.5 percentage points (95% confidence level) conducted with the Government and Academic Research team of GfK for the IOP between June 21 and July 3 also finds:

  • Sanders still holds favored status: While Clinton enjoys a significant lead over Trump among this age group, Bernie Sanders still holds the most favorable marks, with a favorable rating of 54% to 33% among all young voters (Net favorable: +21). Clinton’s favorable rating is 31% and her unfavorable is 60% (Net favorable: -21). Since the last IOP poll in April, Clinton’s favorable rating has decreased 6 points and her unfavorable rating has increased 7 points among young Americans. In contrast, Trump’s favorable and unfavorable rating is essentially unchanged since April, 18% of 18- to 29- year-olds rated him favorable, and 74% rate him unfavorable (Net favorable: -56).
  • Clinton advantage over Trump slips in head-to-head match-up:  In the April 2016 IOP Poll, Clinton held a 36-point lead among likely voters in a two-way race against Trump, 61% to 25% with 14% undecided. In July, that lead has dropped 10 points, as Clinton now polls at 54% compared to Trump, 28%, with 18% undecided.
  • Trump voters more passionate:  Overall, likely Trump voters show higher levels of strong enthusiasm in their support for the Republican candidate when compared to likely Clinton or Johnson voters. Among Trump supporters, 36% indicated that they were “very enthusiastic” and one-third (33%) reported that they were “somewhat enthusiastic.” As for likely Clinton voters, 21% indicate that they were “very enthusiastic” and 49% reported that they were “somewhat enthusiastic.” And for Johnson, the majority of likely voters indicated that they were either “not at all” or “not very” enthusiastic about his candidacy (60%), and only 40% reported that they were either “very enthusiastic” or “somewhat enthusiastic.”
  • One-third call for “Washington reset:” When IOP polling asked young Americans about their views “related to the state of politics, government and Washington, DC today,” more than four in five called for significant change. One percent (1%) indicated that “things are great and we should not change a thing;” 17% believed “a few subtle changes may be in order;” 48% believed “significant reform is needed;” and 33% believed “we need to find a reset button and start again.” Trump and Johnson supporters were more than twice as likely to want to hit the “reset button” compared to Clinton supporters (41%: Trump; 34%: Johnson; 18%: Clinton). Those without a college degree were more likely than those currently enrolled in college or with a college degree to want to “start again” (41%: no degree; 20%: currently enrolled or with degree)

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Undecided

Likely Voters

45%

23%

13%

19%

All 18-29

34%

17%

15%

33%

Male

31%

20%

18%

30%

Female

37%

14%

11%

37%

White

22%

26%

17%

34%

Black

63%

2%

9%

26%

Hispanic

46%

5%

14%

33%

Methodology

The goal of the project was to collect 1,000 completed interviews with young Americans between 18- and 29- years old.  The main sample data collection took place from June 21 through July 3.  A small pretest was conducted prior to the main survey to examine the accuracy of the data and the length of the interview.

Two-thousand and twenty (2,020) KnowledgePanel members were assigned to the study.  The cooperation rate was 50.5 percent which resulted in 1,001 completed interviews included in this report (after data cleaning). Forty-two (42) interviews were conducted in Spanish with the remainder done in English.  The web-enabled KnowledgePanel® is a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population.  Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers and residential addresses. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone or by mail to participate in the web-enabled KnowledgePanel®. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, GfK provides a laptop and ISP connection at no cost. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and are sent e-mails throughout each month inviting them to participate in research. More technical information is available at http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp/reviewer-info.html and by request to the IOP.

Our mission at Harvard’s Institute of Politics (IOP) is to create the future of politics and public service every day, inspiring undergraduates to lead lives of purpose by committing themselves to the practice of politics and governing, and to public service and the countless opportunities to serve at home and around the world. The IOP was established in 1966 as a memorial to President Kennedy. More information is available online at www.iop.harvard.edu/.

GfK is one of the world’s largest research companies, with more than 12,000 experts working to discover new insights into the way people live, think and shop, in over 100 markets, every day. GfK is constantly innovating and using the latest technologies and the smartest methodologies to give its clients the clearest understanding of the most important people in the world: their customers. In 2012, GfK’s sales amounted to EUR 1.51 billion. To find out more, visit www.gfk.com or follow GfK on Twitter: www.twitter.com/gfk.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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