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May 25, 2013 -- Updated November 12, 2012 02:51 HKT

Thailand Stock Exchange Preview: Thai-German, BTS Group, Raimon Land


shayne@heffcap.com
Posted on: Nov 12th, 2012

Showing 1 of 5

Economist and Hedge Fund Manager Shayne Heffernan of www.livetradingnews.com takes a look at the Thailand Stock Exchange

The Thailand Stock Exchange finished the week 1.2% lower, no surprise though as Thailand has been the leading ASEAN Exchange this year up a total of 25.9% for the year. Investors in Thailand need to be cautious for now as there are ongoing problems in Europe and the USA that have the ability to create a sharp sell off.

Deleveraging in Europe and the US Fiscal Cliff will at some point in the coming months create Rally’s and Dips so it is ideal for traders.

For the Thailand Stock Exchange I advise you seek value, Low PE and good sectors are key, never buy a stock you do not have a long term positive outlook on, always keep in mind value.

Q3 was tough on Thai Exports, exports declined by 1.13 per cent compared to the same period last year, but there is some big news, Toyota plan to make 1m Cars per annum in Thailand.

The Auto Sector is the second most important industry for economic growth in any Country, and Thailand has excelled in that sector, long term Thailand still looks good. Auto manufacturing has an above average multiplier effect. For every one auto manufacturing job, there are 4-6 jobs outside of that segment that are related.

Automotive manufacturing has enormous reach touching every part of the country, employment in automotive and automotive parts manufacturing ranks among the top three manufacturing industries.

Despite a global slowdown Thailand will still record growth of between 4.5% and 6% depending who you ask, I think it will be closer to 6% as a result of the wage hikes and a recovery in food prices.

Thailand Live Trading News Stock Chart
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ASEAN Markets as at Close Friday

Change on day

Market Current Prev Close Pct Move
TR SE Asia Index* 415.14 412.98 +0.52
Singapore 3009.56 3012.25 -0.09
Kuala Lumpur 1641.08 1641.07 0.00
Bangkok 1290.83 1293.70 -0.22
Jakarta 4333.64 4327.87 +0.13
Manila 5468.79 5446.71 +0.41
Ho Chi Minh 386.71 385.60 +0.29

Change on year

Market Current End prev yr Pct Move
TR SE Asia Index* 415.14 346.30 +19.88
Singapore 3009.56 2646.35 +13.72
Kuala Lumpur 1641.08 1530.73 +7.21
Bangkok 1290.83 1025.32 +25.90
Jakarta 4333.64 3821.99 +13.39
Manila 5468.79 4371.96 +25.09
Ho Chi Minh 386.71 351.55 +10.00


Interested in Investing in Asia?

Linda Johnson,
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
Heffernan Capital Management
Sales@Heffcap.com

Singapore

3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699

Thai German

Thai German is very simple, do you believe management can quadruple its annual revenue to about 4.5 billion baht after regional integration under the Asean Economic Community from 2015 paves the way for the SET-listed stainless steel pipe maker to make full use of its monthly production capacity of 4,000 tonnes.

Managing director Rachata Leelaprachakul said Thai-German Products will ratchet up its presence in neighboring countries, especially Laos and Myanmar, from next year with the goal of Asean contributing 20% of revenue.

For now in terms of earnings the stock looks expensive and to see such a large jump in revenue we would need to see some significant new Capex, for now I will wait and see what the rest of the plan is before becoming a buyer. The stock does look like it wants to come lower, to at least 54.

Thai German Live Trading News Macro

BTS Group

This one is also hot right now, but in terms of value here I do not see it, even if revenue did triple as hoped, it looks a little expensive. In fact this chart is not looking so good at all, I would expect to see this one comeback in the near future.

BTS Live Trading News Macro Chart

Valuation
BTS
Peers
T12M F12M F12M
P/E 55.27 44.18 13.22
EV/EBITDA 22.54 17.31 8.60
Div Yield 4.0% 2.9% 2.5%
EV/Sales 10.05 8.36 1.31
P/CF 38.04 25.13 7.93
P/B 1.92 1.63 1.83


Raimon Land

Raimon Land is value, but not just yet, I would be a buyer under 1.85, long term the valuation is good, debt is always a concern but not so much in this environment.

Raimon Land Live Trading News Macro Chart

Relative Valuation
RML
Peers
T12M F12M F12M
P/E 7.72 5.30 10.45
EV/EBITDA 9.38 7.29 10.33
Div Yield 2.4% 8.5% 4.4%
EV/Sales 2.02 1.64 2.28
P/CF 4.52 3.12 12.34
P/B 6.65 2.30 2.12

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Linda Johnson,
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
Heffernan Capital Management
Sales@Heffcap.com

Singapore

3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699

 



 

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Heffernan Capital Management
Linda Johnson,
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
Sales@Heffcap.com

Singapore

3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699

  Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.
Economist/Hedge Fund Manager

Shayne Heffernan oversees the management of funds for institutions and high net worth individuals. He is also an active consultant working with Corporations around the World.

He is recognized as one of the leading Economists in South East Asia, as well as the preeminent authority on ASEAN. His opinions and forecasts are widely read by decision makers in the region and Internationally.

Shayne Heffernan holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reached a peak of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

Member
Chinese Society of Economists
American Economic Society




 

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Posted by on Nov 12th, 2012and filed underASEAN News, Asia, Asia-Pacific Companies, Equities, Investment Banking, Latest News, News wire, Shayne Heffernan, Thailand.You can follow any responses to this entry through theRSS 2.0You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.
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Guest: bztg, come on shane, lite this puppy up. been waiting too long lets go!!!

Tue, 04/30/13 | 0 Comment

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Guest: gsat get it now. if u snooze u lose

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