Thailand News: Thai Baht Outlook
Bank of Thailand: Baht has slight upward bias
The Thai Baht could strengthen slightly against the USD, with offshore investment by local companies and a potential rise in imports likely to cancel out capital inflows spurred by easy US monetary policy, Deputy Gov. Pongpen Ruengvirayudh said Saturday.
So far this year, $10-B in offshore funds invested in Thai bonds, 50% of the $20-B invested in Malaysian bonds, Ms. Pongpen said. Offshore investment in Thai equities is worth around $2-B so far this year, she said.
The value of outbound investment by Thai companies for the Jan-Sept period has exceeded that of 2011, she said.
“Fund inflows could continue, but capital outflows will help counter it at a certain level,” she told reporters at a press briefing.
The central bank will allow the baht to move in line with the money market mechanism, she said.
Economist and Hedge Fund Manager Shayne Heffernan said today in Bangkok that the Thai Economy is set to become one of the regions fastest growing in ASEAN, long term the Baht should contibue to strengthen.
US government policy will, inadvertently, see stronger capital inflow in to Thailand.
Inflows to Thailand after the 3rd round of Quantitative Easing by the US Federal Reserve has decreased from the previous 2 rounds, but should pick up in the new year, he said.
Higher investment returns in Latin America and Eastern Europe have drawn most of the capital flows, she said.
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Shayne Heffernan oversees the management of funds for institutions and high net worth individuals. He is also an active consultant working with Corporations around the World.
He is recognized as one of the leading Economists in South East Asia, as well as the preeminent authority on ASEAN. His opinions and forecasts are widely read by decision makers in the region and Internationally.
Shayne Heffernan holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reached a peak of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.
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