Contrarians See Trump Calmed S&P 500 VIX as Sell Signal

Contrarians See Trump Calmed S&P 500 VIX as Sell Signal






Contrarians See Trump Calmed S&P 500 VIX as Sell Signal $SPY, $VXX American investors are projecting that The Trump Administration will be the catalyst to boost corporate earnings going forward. They are betting that they are right. “Given the intensity of the political ferment in our country, the Zen-like calm of stock market investors is […]






Inflation Back, Deflation Demons ‘Dead’, Growth Ahead

Inflation Back, Deflation Demons ‘Dead’, Growth Ahead






Inflation Back, Deflation Demons ‘Dead’, Growth Ahead $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The “Demons of Deflation” are in the dust-bin on a uptick in price pressures globally, prompting investors to seek protection in inflation-protected bonds. A year ago, it was deflation, falling prices that restrain consumer spending and economic growth that plagued investors and central banks, […]






FOMC Raised Rates, Yellen Not Worried About Downside Risks

FOMC Raised Rates, Yellen Not Worried About Downside Risks






FOMC Raised Rates, Yellen Not Worried About Downside Risks The FOMC raised interest rates Wednesday, a move spurred by steady economic growth, strong job gains and confidence that inflation is rising to the central bank’s target. The decision to lift the target overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent […]






Seeing a Base-Line Shift in Commodity Prices

Seeing a Base-Line Shift in Commodity Prices






Seeing a Base-Line Shift in Commodity Prices $DIA, $GLD, $SLV The US stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (NYSEArca:DIA) seems to be at an inflection point.  It hasn’t seen a new all-time high since March 1st.  And for what it’s worth, trading volume (market demand) for the 30 blue-chip companies […]






Expect US Financial Market to Hold with DJIA 22,000 Possible

Expect US Financial Market to Hold with DJIA 22,000 Possible






Expect US Financial Market to Hold, DJIA 22,000 Next? $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The DJIA has risen about 14% since the November 8 Presidential election marking an  intrday high of 20,851.33. That’s within 6% of 22,000, the next round number (resistance) that investors and traders are looking at. “I think 22,000 is what is justified […]






President Donald Trump is in The Gold Bulls Camp

President Donald Trump is in The Gold Bulls Camp






President Donald Trump is in The Gold Bulls Camp $GLD, $SLV, $USD Statements last week by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin put The Trump Team in the Gold Bulls Camp Last Friday, Gold charged North for the 5th day running in heavy trade as the Trump-trade on financial markets begin to unwind, the USD weakens and interest […]






Here is the Proof, Rising Interest Rates are Good for Gold

Here is the Proof, Rising Interest Rates are Good for Gold






Here is the Proof, Rising Interest Rates are Good for Gold $GLD,  $USD, $XAUUSD You will recall that when the Fed raised interest rates in December, and the publicly spoke its plan to do so 3X more times in Y 2017, the conventional wisdom suggested gold should fall. The theory: Gold is a non-yielding asset, […]






Gold & Inflation Moving Higher, Faster

Gold & Inflation Moving Higher, Faster






Gold & Inflation Moving Higher, Faster $GLD Investors are buying Gold by relying on simple investment-related mathematics Gold will follow inflation to much higher price marks, some say as high a 5,000 oz long term, I have called it at 2,500 in the mid to long term. “Gold is going up faster than the stock market,” […]






Inflationary Pressures Loom in China, as Economy Firms

Inflationary Pressures Loom in China, as Economy Firms






Inflationary Pressures Loom in China, as Economy Firms Accelerated consumer and industrial prices growth indicates nascent inflationary pressure on the Chinese economy, despite the good start to Y 2017. The CPI (consumer price index) rose 2.5% Y-Y last month, fractionally above market expectations of 2.4% and the strongest in 2.5 years. Meanwhile, industrial inflation expanded […]






Trump Rally Extends on Economic Growth, Consumer Prices Up

Trump Rally Extends on Economic Growth, Consumer Prices Up






Trump Rally Extends on Economic Growth, Consumer Prices Up $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US stock market indexes finish at record highs for 5th day running US consumer prices recorded their biggest increase in nearly  4 years in January as households paid more for gasoline and other goods, suggesting inflation picking up. The US Labor Department said […]






The Fed is Breathing Life into Gold Bulls

The Fed is Breathing Life into Gold Bulls






The Fed is Breathing Life into Gold Bulls $GLD Thursday, volume and prices spiked on call options giving holders the right to buy Gold at higher prices. Wednesday, investors poured $413-M into SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca:GLD), the largest ETF backed by the metal, recouping almost 50% of the money that exited in January. The Fed […]






Gold is the Safest Investment in a Volatile Political Atmosphere

Gold is the Safest Investment in a Volatile Political Atmosphere






Gold is the Safest Investment in a Volatile Political Atmosphere $GLD Savvy asset managers predicts that the only safe investment in a  volatile political and economic atmosphere is Gold. “Gold is one of the few things you should own,” a UK hedge fund manager said Wednesday. Adding, “…hat there are very few, if any, safe […]






Little Chance the Fed will “Snuff Out” Expansion Anytime Soon

Little Chance the Fed will “Snuff Out” Expansion Anytime Soon






Little Chance the Fed will “Snuff Out” Expansion Anytime Soon $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The Fed is unlikely to take actions that would “snuff out” the current US economic expansion anytime soon because inflation is not a problem, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley. Tuesday, Mr. Dudley, in a speech […]






US Consumer Confidence at 12 Year Highs

US Consumer Confidence at 12 Year Highs






US Consumer Confidence at 12 Year Highs Consumer confidence jumped to the highest level since Y 2004, extending Americans’ optimism for their finances and the US economy following Donald Trump’s Presidential election victory. The University of Michigan said Friday that its MSI (final index of sentiment) rose to 98.2 from 93.8 in November. The median […]






US Consumer Confidence Running High

US Consumer Confidence Running High






US Consumer Confidence Running High Consumer Confidence rose more than forecast this month as Americans expressed the Sunniest picture of their financial situation in 11 years, extending a boost following Donald Trump’s election victory. The University of Michigan (MSI) said Friday that its preliminary index of sentiment rose to 98, the highest since January 2015, […]






Strong US Housing Market to Bring Fed Rate Hike

Strong US Housing Market to Bring Fed Rate Hike






Strong US Housing Market to Bring Fed Rate Hike October Existing Home Sales and November Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Index Sales: +2%; Prices (Over-Year): +6%/ Phil. Fed (NonMan.): -10.7 points; Orders: +6.9 points; Hiring: +5.8 point. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that in October, existing home sales hit their highest pace since February 2007. […]






Bond Trader Signaling Coming Inflation

Bond Trader Signaling Coming Inflation






Bond Trader Signaling Coming Inflation The rout in the fixed-income arena deepened into the worst in 15 years as traders sounded the alarm on inflation amid speculation US President Elect Donald Trump’s spending pledges will boost economic growth. Yields on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries posted their steepest back-to-back weekly increase since Y 2001, and a bond-market […]






US Stocks Finished Flat to Unchanged on High Volume

US Stocks Finished Flat to Unchanged on High Volume






US Stocks Finished Flat to Unchanged on High Volume $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US stocks came back from an early losses and finished flat to unchanged Monday. Technology companies like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) saw big losses on fears about their overseas revenue, but bank stocks continued to rise along with bond yields. Technology […]






Trump Victory Augurs US Banks Enhanced Profitably

Trump Victory Augurs US Banks Enhanced Profitably






Trump Victory Augurs US Banks Enhanced Profitably $XLF US President Elect Donald Trump has greatly enhanced the outlook for US bank profitability, as he is laying the foundation for a steeper yield curve and financial deregulation. Recognizing this, investors are acting with record 1-day inflows of more than $2.1-B into the Financial Select Sector exchange […]






US Long Dated Treasuries Up Signaling Rising Inflation

US Long Dated Treasuries Up Signaling Rising Inflation






US Long Dated Treasuries Up Signaling Rising Inflation $SPY Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential race is driving mutual fund managers out of dividend stocks and into the shares of financial, industrial and materials companies that benefit from rising inflation. Although inflation remains subdued by most measures, US longer-dated Treasury yields rose Thursday to […]






Gold Wins No Matter Who Is Elected US President

Gold Wins No Matter Who Is Elected US President






Gold Wins No Matter Who Is Elected US President $GLD, $NUGT With the Y 2016 Presidential election on 8 November, many Americans are concerned about the fate of the nation. The Big Q’s” What will happen to the economy under the new administration, to Crude Oil prices, property values, the stock market, +++? There is […]






The Anemic Recovery from Great Recession Surprise Economists

The Anemic Recovery from Great Recession Surprise Economists






The Anemic Recovery from Great Recession Surprise Economists $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Friday, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that the slow recovery from the Great Recession has surprised economists, confounding long-held beliefs about growth and inflation. Speaking to an economic conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,  Ms. Yellen did not address […]






Rising Inflation Augurs Record High Gold Price, Stock Correction

Rising Inflation Augurs Record High Gold Price, Stock Correction






Rising Inflation Augurs Record High Gold Price, Stock Correction $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX, $GLD Rising inflation and sagging confidence in the ability of central banks to revive global growth will drive up Gold price, and bullion could climb to a record in the next 2 years. Consumer prices are set to rise as Crude Oiil […]






Obama’s Description of His Legacy is Excessively Charitable to Himself

Obama’s Description of His Legacy is Excessively Charitable to Himself






Obama’s Description of His Legacy is Excessively Charitable to Himself US President Barack Hussein Obama recently celebrated the 7th anni of the passage of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, or as most Americans likely remember it, the $830-M stimulus package. The benefits of the stimulus are up for debate, but Mr. Obama is absolutely […]






Fed Official Cautions Colleagues on Raising Interest Rates

Fed Official Cautions Colleagues on Raising Interest Rates






Fed Official Cautions Colleagues on Raising Interest Rates $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley suggested the central bank should be cautious in raising interest rates, given limits on its ability to respond to a recession with borrowing costs close to Zero meaning out of tools. Noting concerns from […]






Divided FOMC Stood Pat on Rates, Tone “Hawkish”

Divided FOMC Stood Pat on Rates, Tone “Hawkish”






Divided FOMC Stood Pat on Rates, Tone “Hawkish” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX A divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the fed funds rate unchanged for a 6th meeting running, saying it would wait for “more evidence of progress toward its goals”, while projecting that an increase is likely by year-end. “Near-term risks to the […]






Fed Welcomes Uptick in Inflation

Fed Welcomes Uptick in Inflation






Fed Welcomes Uptick in Inflation US consumer prices rose more than expected in August as healthcare costs recorded their biggest gain in 32.5 years, pointing to a steady build-up of inflation that could allow the US Fed to raise interest rates this year. The cost of living last month was also pushed up by continuing […]






The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy

The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy






The US Fed has Not Delivered on the Economy The US Fed is stuck to actions devised by Ben S. Bernanke that have not worked to restore strong economic growth since the Great Recession The US central bank’s adherence to the idea that unemployment and weak demand can be cured with policies that encourage consumers, businesses and governments […]






Personal Income, Wages, Salaries, Savings Advanced in July

Personal Income, Wages, Salaries, Savings Advanced in July






Personal Income, Wages, Salaries, Savings Advanced in July $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US consumer spending increased for a fourth straight month in July amid strong demand for automobiles, pointing to a pickup in economic growth that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. The Commerce Department said Monday […]






US Consumer Prices Unchanged, Inflation Slows

US Consumer Prices Unchanged, Inflation Slows






US Consumer Prices Unchanged, Inflation Slows $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US consumer prices were unchanged in July as the cost of gasoline fell for the 1st time in 5 months and underlying inflation slowed, which could further diminish prospects of a US Fed interest rate increase this year. The Labor Department said Tuesday that the […]






The US Consumer Pauses, Spending Halts, Economy Stalls

The US Consumer Pauses, Spending Halts, Economy Stalls






The US Consumer Pauses, Spending Halts, Economy Stalls $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX “The consumer paused in July and with price pressures soft, the Fed members will probably gain a few more grey hairs.” — Joel Naroff, Economist The Consumer Data: July Retail Sales and Wholesale Prices Sales: 0%; Excluding Vehicles: -0.3%/ PPI: -0.4% Excluding Food […]






Raise Rates, Don’t Raise Rates, Who’s Right?

Raise Rates, Don’t Raise Rates, Who’s Right?






Raise Rates, Don’t Raise Rates, Who’s Right? $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX There are those economists that argue that the US Fed should take an unconventional approach to ending a long period of below-target inflation: that being that instead of keeping interest rates low to drive economic activity and push up prices, it should raise interest […]






US Economic Weakness Demand Careful Monitoring

US Economic Weakness Demand Careful Monitoring






US Economic Weakness Demand Careful Monitoring $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX US import prices rose less than expected in June as rising costs for petroleum products were offset by declining consumer and capital goods prices, indicating inflation remains benign in here. The marginal increase reported by the US Labor Department Wednesday reflects the effects of the […]






Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI): A 96 Year Study

Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI): A 96 Year Study






Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI): A 96 Year Study $GLD, $SLV What does “real money” mean to you? To many of my readers, I suspect real money would be gold and silver coinage backing the paper money in circulation. But to politicians and economists, it means something completely different: “A billion here, a billion there, and […]






The Fed Policy Makers are Fighting for Their Lives

The Fed Policy Makers are Fighting for Their Lives






The Fed Policy Makers are Fighting for Their Lives Something interesting happened the Friday (Quad Witching) before Brexit; trading volume exploded on a decline in the Dow Jones.  In the BEV chart below I inserted the daily trading volume (mils) for the Dow Jones instead of the usual BEV values to highlight what happened. It […]






IMF Downgrades US Economic Forecast

IMF Downgrades US Economic Forecast






IMF Downgrades US Economic Forecast The International Monetary Fund  (IMF) downgraded its forecast for the US economy this year and said America should raise the minimum wage to help the poor, offer paid maternity leave to encourage more women to work and overhaul the corporate tax system to boost productivity. In its annual checkup of […]






World’s Central Bankers are Fighting “the Tape”

World’s Central Bankers are Fighting “the Tape”






World’s Central Bankers are Fighting “the Tape” The world’s central bankers are fighting “the tape” by pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the global economic system in an effort to avert deflation. Notably, deflation is a natural force of nature during Peace Time, when globalization leads to free trade and heightens competition. During War Time, […]






80% of Professionals Will Leave GCC if Income Tax Introduced

80% of Professionals Will Leave GCC if Income Tax Introduced






80% of Professionals Will Leave GCC if Income Tax Introduced VAT in the UAE will bring higher inflation, society of finance professionals says An overwhelming majority of finance professionals would leave the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) if income tax was implemented, research has revealed. In a study by CFA Society Emirates, 80% of the respondents said that […]






Managed Money Cautious, Capital Preservation Key

Managed Money Cautious, Capital Preservation Key






Managed Money Cautious, Capital Preservation Key $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The “new normal” led to the “new neutral” led to ‘insecure stability”. The world has entering a phase of rising risks as the effect of central-bank stimulus policies diminishes. “You can think of it as insecure stability,” Richard Clarida, Pimco’s global strategic adviser, said in […]






South Korea’s Household Consumption Falling

South Korea’s Household Consumption Falling






South Korea’s Household Consumption Falling Private (household) consumption in South Korea fell in Q-1 on lower household income, a government report revealed Friday. Monthly private consumption averaged 2,669,000 Won (US$2,262) per household during the January-March period, up 0.6% from the same frame last year, according to Statistics Korea. Real private consumption, adjusted for inflation, declined […]






Abenomics Not Likely to Lift Japan Out of Sluggish Growth

Abenomics Not Likely to Lift Japan Out of Sluggish Growth






Abenomics Not Likely to Lift Japan Out of Sluggish Growth Statistics released Wednesday showed Japan recorded better-than-expected economic growth numbers in Q-1 of the year. However, economists said the real picture may not be as rosy as it looks to be based on preliminary statistics. The reform plans championed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, known […]






Thursday’s Technical Outlook for DJIA (.DJI)

Thursday’s Technical Outlook for DJIA (.DJI)






Thursday’s Technical Outlook for DJIA (.DJI) $DIA, $.DJI Wall Street closed mostly flat Wednesday, with the DJIA up down by 4 pts or 0.02% at 17,526.62. The NAS Comp added 0.50% to close at 4.739.12, and the S&P 500 added 0.2%, to 2,047.63. Stocks fell after the release of the latest FOMC Mins, showing higher […]






June Fed Interest Rate Hike In Sight

June Fed Interest Rate Hike In Sight






June Fed Interest Rate Hike In Sight $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX The US Fed officials said it would appropriate to raise interest rates in June if economic data points to stronger Q-2 growth as well as firming inflation and employment, according to the FOMC mins from their policy meeting in April. That view suggests the […]






FOMC Keeps Threat of Interest Rate Hike “In the Mix”

FOMC Keeps Threat of Interest Rate Hike “In the Mix”






FOMC Keeps Threat of Interest Rate Hike “In the Mix” $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Wednesday afternoon, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and indicated their confidence in the anemic US economy, thus keeping the door open to a hike in June. The FOMC said the labor market had improved despite a recent economic slowdown […]






ECB’s Mario Draghi Ignores German Criticism of Loose Money Policy

ECB’s Mario Draghi Ignores German Criticism of Loose Money Policy






ECB’s Mario Draghi Ignores German Criticism of Loose Money Policy $DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi ignored German criticism of the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy and vowing to use all the “tools” at his disposal for “as long as needed.” He said the ECB’s policy was working, which helped boost […]