China is forecast to import about 3 million tons in 2011/12, in line with analysts’ estimates, as it needs to beef up its sugar reserves to strategic levels, Baron said ahead of a sugar conference on the island resort of Cebu. Any excess supply from Thailand and Brazil could be absorbed by China and also by Indonesia, which could import about 2.6 million tons in 2011/12 as domestic output was unable to meet the country’s growing demand, Baron said.

New York front-month raw sugar futures have slid around 12 percent since hitting a five-month high at 31.68 cents in late July, weighed down by fears of a global recession, although worries about lower output in top producer Brazil cushioned the fall.

World sugar surplus is estimated at around 4 million metric tons in the crop year to September 2012, above an earlier projection in excess of 3 million tons, but strong Asian demand could offset any oversupply, the International Sugar Organization said.

While supply-and-demand fundamentals will set the tone for global prices, New York raw sugar futures are expected to trade in a range of 23 to 28 cents a pound over the next eight to 12 months — below a recent peak around 31 cents, said Peter Baron, executive director of the London-based ISO.

“There will be a surplus and there will most likely not be a massive restocking. I think that the supply situation should not be a real problem as long as we have a surplus even if it’s a smaller one than many people expect,” he said late on Sunday.

Shayne Heffernan

Shayne Heffernan oversees the management of funds for institutions and high net worth individuals.

Shayne Heffernan holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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Posted by Shayne Heffernan on Aug 15th, 2011and filed underAgriculture, Economy, Emerging Markets, Latest News, News & Events, Sugar.You can follow any responses to this entry through theRSS 2.0You can leave a response by filling following comment form or trackback to this entry from your site