SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Trading Outlook

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Trading Outlook

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Trading Outlook

HEFFX Notes

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 211.41.

The projected upper bound is: 221.15.

The projected lower bound is: 210.45.

The projected closing price is: 215.80.

HEFFX Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.

During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

SPDR S&P 500 closed down -1.340 at 215.600. Volume was 77% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
216.650 216.830 215.450 215.600 21,504,936

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 216.69 211.24 204.31
Volatility: 6 16 18
Volume: 63,813,328 96,694,064 115,604,328

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

SPDR S&P 500 is currently 5.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into SPY (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on SPY and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

Momentum

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 48.2930. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.46. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 134 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -118.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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