SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Trading Outlook

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Trading Outlook

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) Trading Outlook

SPDR S&P 500 closed up 1.285 at 213.935. Volume was 55% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 29% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
213.190 214.070 212.950 213.935 44,900,024

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 208.30 207.92 202.71
Volatility: 21 18 19
Volume: 128,706,704 103,679,032 120,550,904

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


SPDR S&P 500 gapped up today (bullish) on light volume. Possibility of a Common Gap which usually coincides with a lack of interest in the security. Common Gaps are fairly irrelevent for forecasting purposes. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.

SPDR S&P 500 is currently 5.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of SPY at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on SPY and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

SPY Momentum

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.8801. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.63. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 118 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 146.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).

During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

A rising window occurred (where the top of the previous shadow is below the bottom of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bullish trend. There have been 7 rising windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current rising window even more bullish.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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