SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) HEFFX Trading Notes

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) HEFFX Trading Notes

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) HEFFX Trading Notes

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 223.49.

The projected lower bound is: 202.96.

The projected closing price is: 218.22.

Momentum is Fading

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.8901. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 138 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 186.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

SPDR S&P 500 closed down -0.130 at 218.050. Volume was 57% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
218.400 218.520 217.740 218.050 39,906,480

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 216.85 211.98 204.59
Volatility: 7 16 18
Volume: 67,670,424 96,622,976 115,162,216

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

SPDR S&P 500 is currently 6.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of SPY at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on SPY and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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