S&P 500 Losing Streak Longest in Over 30 yrs Augurs Trump Win

S&P 500 Losing Streak Longest in Over 30 yrs Augurs Trump Win

S&P 500 Losing Streak Longest in Over 30 yrs Augurs Trump Win

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX

The S&P 500 Index extended its longest losing streak in more than 30 years, as data bolstered speculation interest rates will rise before year-end and investors cautious ahead of US Presidential election.

Stocks faded in afternoon trading as an advance led by drug makers lost momentum, overshadowed by declines among consumer, financial and energy shares.

The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 2,085.33 at 4:00p in New York. The gauge capped a 9th straight decliner, the longest since Y 1980, during which it’s declined 3.1%.

The Jobs report Friday showed payrolls climbed by 161,000 last month following a 191,000 gain in September that was larger than previously estimated. Wages rose from a year earlier by the most since Y 2009, and the jobless rate fell to 4.9%. The figures may keep the Fed on track to raise borrowing costs next month for the 1st time in Y 2016.

Shares rise in the days before a Presidential election unless the incumbent party is about to be ousted.

Anxiety about the outcome of the November 8 vote has weighed on stocks since 8 August. The S&P 500 fell Friday tapped its 200-Day MA at 2,083, a technical mark it has not broken since the rout that followed the UK’s June vote to leave the EU.

The S&P 500 posted a 4th weekly decliner in the last 5, down 1.9% as polls showed a dwindling lead for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

GOP nominee Donald Trump showed strength in Iowa and Ohio pre-Election Day voting, while Mrs. Clinton’s advantage in early balloting looked favorable in North Carolina and Nevada.

The tightening race sent the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index to its longest streak of gains ever, and dragged the S&P 500 to a 4-month low.

Before Friday’s NFPs report and the approaching election, the Fed Wednesday kept rates unchanged in a widely expected move, and indicated the argument for raising them has strengthened. Other data this week was mixed, with modest expansion in manufacturing last month, while services industries growth slowed. Traders are now pricing in a 76% chance the Fed will act in December, up from 69% last week.

Friday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -42.39 at 17888.28, NAS Comp -12.04 at 5046.37, S&P 500 -3.48 at 2085.18

Volume: Trade on the NYSE was above average with over 892-M/shares exchanged.

HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (-0.22) Bearish (-0.33) Bearish (-0.44) Neutral (0.10)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.32) Bearish (-0.38) Bearish (-0.42) Neutral (-0.17)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (-0.11) Bearish (-0.27) Neutral (-0.15) Neutral (0.08)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.04) Neutral (0.24) Neutral (0.10) Neutral (-0.21)

A new US President will be elected next week, means something big is about to happen in the world, and for our purposes at HeffX-LTN, in the stock market.

The risk is there for the market to have a big, near-term sell-off if the election does not get resolved in a manner the market deems favorable.

That belief is tied to the understanding that the S&P 500 is still only 4% off its all-time high.

If the US stock market does not have a big response to the Election outcome, the Election is still be a big deal since it will usher into office a new leader of the world’s most powerful nation.

That leader could be the nation’s 1st female President or businessman, political outsider Donald Trump, which would also be history in the making, as history was made with Ronald Reagan in Y 1980.

Any way we look at it, 8 November 2016, is going to be a big day filled with Big News and possibly a big stock market reaction.

So stay tuned…

Have a terrific weekend.

 

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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