On the Sidelines of G20, No Crude Oil Production Freeze

On the Sidelines of G20, No Crude Oil Production Freeze

On the Sidelines of G20, No Crude Oil Production Freeze


On the sidelines of the G20 Summit now finished meeting in Hangzhou, the Russian and Saudi Arabian Oil ministers met and agreed to create a producers’ group that would meet regularly to monitor the Oil markets.

Brent Crude reached a high early of 49.33 a barrel on the ICE early Monday morning following a report that the Saudis and the Russians had agreed on a production freeze. It turned out to be a lot less than that and Brent dropped back to 47.93 within an hour.

WTI Crude Oil on the European exchange rose to 46.49 before falling back to 45.37 bbl. US markets are closed to observe the Labor Day Holiday.

The Saudi Oil minister Khalid al-Falih said that a production freeze is not needed at the moment. Mr Falih reportedly said that a freeze is a “favorable option, but not necessary today.”

The Russians and the Saudis combined produce more than 20% of the world’s Crude Oil supply, and both are pumping as much or more now as either has in its history. A freeze at these production levels would have been next to meaningless.

OPEC members Venezuela and Nigeria, among others, have been pushing for a production cut in order to reduce supply and raise prices. Global storage, however, is stuffed with oil and cutting production would likely have only a temporary impact on crude markets as the storage tanks are drained.

A glance at the tanker market might lead one to believe that too much Crude Oil is being produced.

Day rates for very-large crude carriers (VLCCs) are down to around $30,000 for a run from the Middle East to Asia. If Crude Oil supply were the issue, day rates would be rising, not falling.

The problem for shipping companies is that the tanker market has too many ships. Even at current production rates, tanker operators canot fill all their ships and apparently they cannot scrap the old ones quickly enough.

The OPEC meeting later this month is not going to change the Crude Oil market situation much. Iran, which has been holding out on reducing production as it ramps up to pre-sanction production rates, may offer to freeze production just to get in Saudi Arabia’s headlights, but it does not have either the will or the clout to fight it out with the Saudis, so do not look to OPEC to drive Crude Oil prices higher.

HeffX-LTN Analysis for OIL: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.28) Neutral (-0.19) Bearish (-0.26) Bearish (-0.39)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for USO: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.27) Bearish (-0.31) Neutral (-0.21) Bearish (-0.29)

Stay tuned…


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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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