Seven West Media Ltd (ASX:SWM) Under Pressure

Seven West Media Ltd (ASX:SWM) Under Pressure

Seven West Media Ltd (ASX:SWM) Under Pressure

HEFFX Notes

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.06.

The projected upper bound is: 0.96.

The projected lower bound is: 0.72.

The projected closing price is: 0.76.

Negative Sentiment Reflected in HEFFX Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.

During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 3 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.

SEVENWEST FPO closed down -0.190 at 0.845. Volume was 468% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 37% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.960 0.960 0.840 0.845 19,680,266

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.05 1.08 0.92
Volatility: 116 73 65
Volume: 4,688,030 3,664,633 3,570,788

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

SEVENWEST FPO gapped down today (bearish) on heavy volume. Possibility of a Breakaway Gap which usually signifies the beginning of a major market move. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.

SEVENWEST FPO is currently 8.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of SWM.AX at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on SWM.AX and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that SWM.AX is currently in an oversold condition.

Failing Momentum

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.1895. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 23.74. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 35 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -237.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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