Real Estate: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index

Real Estate: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index

Real Estate: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index

S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2016 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.6% annual gain in October, up from 5.4% last month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.3% annual increase, up from 4.2% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.1%, up from 5.0% in September.

Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last nine months. In October, Seattle led the way with a 10.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 10.3%, and Denver with an 8.3% increase. 10 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending October 2016 versus the year ending September 2016.

MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in October. The 10-City Composite remains unchanged and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% increase in October. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.9% month-over-month increase, while both the 10-City and 20-City Composites each reported a 0.6% month-over-month increase. 13 of 20 cities reported increases in September before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities saw prices rise.

ANALYSIS
“Home prices and the economy are both enjoying robust numbers,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director & Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, mortgage interest rates rose in November and are expected to rise further as home prices continue to out-pace gains in wages and personal income. Affordability measures based on median incomes, home prices and mortgage rates show declines of 20-30% since home prices bottomed in 2012. With the current high consumer confidence numbers and low unemployment rate, affordability trends do not suggest an immediate reversal in home price trends. Nevertheless, home prices cannot rise faster than incomes and inflation indefinitely.”

“After the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Index bottomed in February 2012, its year-over-year growth accelerated to a peak rate of 10.9% in October 2013 and then gradually fell to its current rate of approximately 5%. During the same period, the highest year-over-year rate from any city was 29% in August and September 2013; currently the highest single city gain declined to approximately 11%. Both national and city growth in home prices slowed but remains above the growth rate of incomes and inflation.”

SUPPORTING DATA

Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs.

2006 Peak

2012 Trough

Current

Index

Level

Date

Level

Date

From

Peak (%)

Level

From
Trough (%)

From
Peak (%)

National

184.62

Jul-06

134.01

Feb-12

-27.4%

185.06

38.1%

0.2%

20-City

206.52

Jul-06

134.07

Mar-12

-35.1%

191.79

43.1%

-7.1%

10-City

226.29

Jun-06

146.45

Mar-12

-35.3%

205.56

40.4%

-9.2%

Table 2 below summarizes the results for October 2016. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data.

October 2016

October/September

September/August

1-Year

Metropolitan Area

Level

Change (%)

Change (%)

Change (%)

Atlanta

133.54

0.4%

0.2%

6.0%

Boston

192.40

0.1%

0.1%

4.5%

Charlotte

142.52

0.2%

0.2%

6.0%

Chicago

136.32

-1.1%

0.1%

3.9%

Cleveland

112.92

0.4%

-0.4%

3.9%

Dallas

168.43

0.4%

0.3%

8.1%

Denver

188.65

0.0%

0.3%

8.3%

Detroit

109.79

-0.2%

0.1%

6.4%

Las Vegas

153.12

-0.1%

0.6%

5.7%

Los Angeles

252.58

0.0%

0.3%

5.7%

Miami

218.31

0.5%

0.4%

6.5%

Minneapolis

155.54

0.1%

0.3%

5.5%

New York

184.08

-0.2%

0.0%

1.7%

Phoenix

163.92

0.4%

0.3%

5.2%

Portland

208.25

-0.1%

0.1%

10.3%

San Diego

228.34

0.2%

0.1%

5.9%

San Francisco

229.65

0.6%

-0.5%

5.5%

Seattle

204.90

0.2%

0.0%

10.7%

Tampa

187.63

0.9%

0.5%

7.8%

Washington

217.87

0.2%

0.1%

3.4%

Composite-10

205.56

0.0%

0.1%

4.3%

Composite-20

191.79

0.1%

0.1%

5.1%

U.S. National

185.06

0.2%

0.3%

5.6%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through October 2016

Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.

October/September Change (%)

September/August Change (%)

Metropolitan Area

NSA

SA

NSA

SA

Atlanta

0.4%

1.4%

0.2%

0.9%

Boston

0.1%

0.9%

0.1%

0.6%

Charlotte

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

0.7%

Chicago

-1.1%

0.3%

0.1%

0.6%

Cleveland

0.4%

1.3%

-0.4%

0.0%

Dallas

0.4%

1.0%

0.3%

0.8%

Denver

0.0%

0.6%

0.3%

0.7%

Detroit

-0.2%

0.4%

0.1%

0.4%

Las Vegas

-0.1%

0.3%

0.6%

0.6%

Los Angeles

0.0%

0.5%

0.3%

0.5%

Miami

0.5%

0.7%

0.4%

0.5%

Minneapolis

0.1%

0.6%

0.3%

0.4%

New York

-0.2%

0.4%

0.0%

0.2%

Phoenix

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

0.5%

Portland

-0.1%

0.6%

0.1%

0.4%

San Diego

0.2%

0.7%

0.1%

0.3%

San Francisco

0.6%

1.0%

-0.5%

0.3%

Seattle

0.2%

0.9%

0.0%

0.7%

Tampa

0.9%

1.2%

0.5%

1.0%

Washington

0.2%

0.9%

0.1%

0.7%

Composite-10

0.0%

0.6%

0.1%

0.4%

Composite-20

0.1%

0.6%

0.1%

0.5%

U.S. National

0.2%

0.9%

0.3%

0.8%

Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic

Data through October 2016

For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spdji.com.

ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES
S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than based on any other provider in the world. With over 1,000,000 indices and more than 120 years of experience constructing innovative and transparent solutions, S&P Dow Jones Indices defines the way investors measure and trade the markets.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spdji.com.

The following two tabs change content below.
Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

You must be logged in to post comments :  
CONNECT WITH