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Rasmussen Poll: Mitt Romney Takes Lead After Debate Win

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49 percent of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47 percent. Two percent (2 percent) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2 percent) are undecided.

The results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, Sunday’s update was the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after the first presidential debate last Wednesday night.

The numbers reflect a modest debate bounce for Romney. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race, Rasmussen reported.

The polling firm noted that “incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second. Ronald Reagan may be the greatest example of this.”

Forty-five percent of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their mind before voting. Forty-three percent are certain they will vote for Obama.

Post-debate state polls show Romney up one in Virginia, the president up one in Ohio and Romney up two in Florida. All three remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection, the polling firm noted in its daily report. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 50 percent of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president’s job performance. Forty-nine percent at least somewhat disapprove.

Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 29 percent of the nation’s voters strongly approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-two percent strongly disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13.

During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout, the polling firm noted. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies.

However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout.

During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52 percent to 46 percent margin. Obama was 53 percent to 46 percent.

In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point.