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Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

The Technical Look: last week we saw some distribution. The insider selling with a record 50:1 selling to buying ratio SBR last month, the size of this run that equals the last 2 extended Northside moves.

The major market indices held, bounced, and moved laterally as they try to set up for a new Northside move.

Mr. Bernanke told us that QE was here to stay regardless of what others on the FOMC say. The economic data was just enough to keep thoughts of slow fired up.

Unlike Ys 2011 and 2012, there is no ending of one QE program and waiting for the start of another. This is now QE-Infinity IMO

Mr. Bernanke says the money is there and will be there, further he says the unemployment rate will not fall to 6% until Y 2015 at best. He inferred that the money is going to be there for a long time.

That being the case the market has money without a question.

Of course it has to test, and it is doing that now IMO. After this test, aka consolidation, it will want to put that money into the market continuing this Bull Run.

That being the case I am are looking for the test to finish, and before it does the leaders will set up. Shayne Heffernan has warned that there is significant downside to this market as the money printing and high debt in the USA, Europe and Japan will have a serious and very real impact on the market.

So focus on the leadership, they are in patterns preparing for the next move North. I keep tabs on them and report them daily on LTN, www.livetradingnews.com

It seems strange, that with so many negative issues facing the world and the US to look for the market to rise, but the market always climbs a wall of worries.

For now the markets are rising on printed (fiat) money just as they have when other powers became impoverished or disappeared by virtue of devaluation and debt.

The US government is focused on its citizen’s retirement money, and DC is talking about how it can be ‘used’ to hold up US finances and guarantee protected returns to the debt holders.

But, for the time being look for the new leader stocks setting up as they are the next leaders to join those which have be in front on the recent move.

Have a terrific week.

All the best,

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

PS: Plan your work and work your plan, do not let the Noise influence the plan. PAEJnr.

Red’s Bull and Bear Trade
Alerts

Trading Review: Talisman Energy NYSE:TLM

Profile: Talisman Energy Inc., an upstream oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It primarily operates in North America, the North Sea, and southeast Asia. The company was founded in Y 1925 and is HQ’d in Calgary, Canada.

Website: http://www.talisman-energy.com

Headlines: Largest option buying in equities so far

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/largest-option-buying-equities-far-162102693.html

Options Trading Review

Friday TLM options volume was higher than the average 10-day volume on both the Call and Put side, the volume of Puts was 21,822 and calls was 27,677 equating to a 0.79 Put/Call Ratio PCR.

The skewed PCR suggests that traders are re-balancing their portfolios in anticipation of a price shift.

Options can provide significant leverage if the stock moves in the right direction, but also end up worthless if it does not.

PCR statistics serve as useful indicators of investment sentiment, indicating what experienced investors are doing in preparation for a move of an underlying stock.

The PCR is regarded as an indicator of investor sentiment, indicating what experienced participants are doing in preparation for a move of an underlying equity.

A high PCR suggests that the investor sentiment is Bearish and that investors are expecting the underlying stock price to fall.

A low PCR implies that the investor sentiment is Bullish and that investors are expecting the underlying stock price to rise.

Also, unusual volume provides reliable signals that the stock is expected to make a move.

Shares of Talisman Energy were off 0.18, -1.44% at 12.36 in Friday’s trading session.

The price range Friday was: 12.29 – 12.46.

The 52 wk trading range is: 9.46 – 15.21.

Friday’s volume: 5.5-M/shrs is more than the 3 month average volume of 4.4-M/shrs.

TLM is trading above its 50 and 200-Day MAs.

Performance Metrics

Week Month Quarter Half Year Year

-0.40% +5.73% +8.67% -7.73% 8.67%

EPS: 9.13

P/E: 96.46

RSI: 50.76

DiviYield: 0.27 2.20%

Next Earnings Date: 28 April 2013

Analysts Recommendation: Hold

1 yr price target estimate: 14.50

Disclaimer: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or for results obtained from the use of this information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in Good Faith, are subject to change without notice. Before acting on any information contained on the website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.

For the complete list of the remaining reports please go to.http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-calendar.aspx

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This Week on the Economic Front in the USA

Monday, 4 March

None

Tuesday, 5 March

ISM Services, Feb (10:00a): 55.4 e, 55.2 p

Wednesday, 6 March

MBA Mortgage Index, 03/02 (7:00a): -3.8% p

DP Employment Change, February (8:15a): 150-K e, 192-K p

Factory Orders, Jan (10:00a): -2.2% e 1.8% p

Crude Oil Inventories, 03/02 (10:30a): 1.130-M p

Thursday, 7 March

Initial Claims, 03/02 (8:30a): 350-K e, 344-K p

Continuing Claims, 02/23 (8:30a): 3100-K e, 3074-K p

Trade Balance, Jan (8:30a): -$43.0-B e, -$38.5-B pr

Productivity-Rev., Q-4 (8:30a): -1.6% e, -2.0% p

Unit Labor Costs -Rev., Q-4 (8:30a): 4.2% e, 4.5% p

Nat Gas Inventories, 03/02 (10:30a): -171 bcf p

Consumer Credit, Jan (3:00p): $12.8-B e, $14.6-B p

Friday, 8 March

Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb (8:30a): 165-K e, 157-K p

Nonfarm Private Payrolls, Feb (8:30a): 178-K e, 166-K p

Unemployment Rate, Feb (8:30a): 7.9% e, 7.9% p

Hourly Earnings, Feb (8:30a): 0.2% e, 0.2% p

Average Workweek, Feb (8:30a): 34.4 e, 34.4 p

Wholesale Inventories, Jan (10:00a): 0.2% e, -0.1% p

e= expected, p= prior

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The Most Asked Question Last Week

The Big Q: Red, is the US Federal Reserve independent of the White House?

The Big A: The Bernanke Fed Is Not Politically Independent

The idea that the US Federal Reserve is politically independent is a Myth, and that is now seen by the relationship of Ben Bernanke’s Fed to the White House, says Gerald O’Driscoll, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute.

“It is difficult to portray the Fed under Chairman Ben Bernanke as operating independently in any meaningful sense,” he writes in the WS-J.

As an example, the US Fed is acting as the government’s creditor, snapping up 77% of new Treasuries in Y 2011, says Mr. O’Driscoll, a former Dallas Fed vice president.

“With his long-term commitment to ultra-low interest rates, Mr. Bernanke has tied monetary policy to the fiscal policy of the Obama administration in a bid to inflate asset prices,” he writes.

“That is just the opposite of what is supposed to be central bank independence, and places the Fed closer to a presidential administration than it has been since the days of Fed Chairman Arthur Burns and President Richard Nixon.”

The Fed supposedly became independent in a Y 1951 agreement with the US Treasury. But since then, “the bank has acted independently at times, but at other times its actions have been anything but independent of the other branches of government,” Mr. O’Driscoll writes.

“A central bank is necessary as long as an economy is wedded to a fiat currency,” he explains. “And it may at times behave independently, but not in the face of large-scale budget deficits, as we have today.”

Whatever the Fed’s relationship with the Obama administration, experts say it would be unwise to expect a quick finish to the central bank’s QE programs, even though some Fed officials indicate a desire for curtailing the programs.

“The reality is that the main voting members of the Fed are not willing to end quantitative easing QE until there are real signs of economic growth,” according to Elliott Gue, editor of 2 Wall Street newsletters.

“It’s unrealistic to think that the Fed is going to make major changes to its QE program until sometime in the middle of 2014.”

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

PS: We here at LTN are focused on natural resources, agriculture, the Singapore $, and quality stocks that offer steady returns and high dividends, we call them Aristocrat Stocks (and the events that shape the market prices) and profile them weekly on www.livetradingnews.com . They are not priced to make investors a fortune, but they are priced to give approximately 4 to 5% real return on capital, that beat the bank deposit rates soundly and risk is avoided. Pay attention and Cheer up.

Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!

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Red’s Edge and in the Trenches

Reflect and Resolve to Make Money

 The area that I believe to be of great importance to those of us who have a keen interest in trading markets is how to better Play the Game of trading and investing. 

The 1st thing to do, IMO, is to reflect on what was done last year and how well it was done. I believe it will be the common denominator that some stuff was done well and some not so well. That said it would be a good plan to work to be better at what was not done so well in this New Year.

Looking into the past may be helpful to put together Resolutions that will bring positive changes that bode well for future action in the markets, in order to set up for continuing success.

The common areas that most all traders/players work on to improve in order to continuously post good Percentage and Money records are:

1. Formulate a Trading Plan for their business; this is a business, though many of refer to it as a Game.

2. Follow and fine-tune the Trading Plan along the way. 

3. Learn to Cut Losses 

4. Stop Cutting Profits

5. Manage your money; remember Your Money and Your Responsibility.

6. Education, Education and more Education, Knowledge is Power.

7. Last but not least are; never enter a position without a Way Out (aka Exit Strategy)

Lumped into 1 Key Trader/Player Resolution and followed will likely lead to improved trading results.

That said, always strive to do your best, use the best tools, be patient with yourself and be happy.

Each new day comes with new opportunities, challenges, and changes.

All the best,

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

PS: if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you “tick”; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE

To succeed in trading, a Player needs Knowledge; Gain it and use it wisely

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The Key to Stock Market Understanding

We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades.

Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely.

So, that being said, and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business?

Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing.

Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success.

Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.

So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading.

You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless.

That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask.

So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward?

Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be.

Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game.

For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.

Safety

Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life.

In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so.

In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the “Plan” throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.

Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!

Again, the Reminder on Risk

Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.

When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the “Greed” factor; then come the Risk factors that give rise to the Fear factor in trading.

Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk.

Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them

One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even.

It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet.

When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero.

You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks?

Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders.

In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital.

Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires.

To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible.

You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance…

Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify.

The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction.

All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win.

Again, think Education First.

For news and information please go to www.livetradingnews.com, www.paulebeling.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com , www.aseanaffairs.com sign up for RSS feeds on the latest US Market News, ASEAN and World News, Twitter, and the Hot List, it’s Free, and now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Live-Trading-News/193639810672419

My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom

Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby

Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!

Red’s Favorite Quotes from last Week: “No more movies, no more out-to-dinners, no more fun.” Robin Roberts, a civilian employee of the Defense Department, describing the preparations she and her husband have made for the effects of budget cuts.

Somebody with a large capacity for happiness can be happy in testing circumstances; somebody not blessed with that trait can find life a burden regardless. Clive Crook, Columnist.

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Hot Topics

See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7

In View: China’s 8% growth is likely for the next 20 yrs

Former World Bank chief economist Justin Yifu Lin reaffirmed his assertion that China can maintain an annual growth for another 20 yrs.

Lin said he is not talking big, as China’s economy has great potentials in capitalizing on the late-mover advantages.

“Should such advantages as a late mover be fully capitalized on, China might continue to maintain an 8-percent annual growth for 20 more years,” Lin, a professor with Peking University, said in a speech on China’s economic outlook and challenges Friday.

Lin said a sound government financial status, a large number of programs with high return on investment, high civilian bank deposits and foreign exchange reserves are beneficial to the economic growth in short terms.

He did point out that China is still facing multiple challenges such as urban-rural gap, income gap, backwardness in social development, resource-environment conflicts, unbalanced foreign trade, overheated investment, education, technological and creative capability, corruption, as well as legal and political mechanisms.

“Whether China could maintain continuous economic growth relies on if these challenges could be addressed,” Lin said. Stay tuned…

EU Watch: Greece, new round of talks opened with EU-IMF auditors over next bailout tranche

Sunday, Greece opened a new round of talks with auditors of European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) lenders which will determine the release of the next bailout tranche to Athens due this month.

Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras held a first meeting with two of the heads of the “troika” representatives at his office in Athens, opening a series of deliberations until March 10 in the context of the regular review of Greece’s progress under the bailout program agreed with international creditors since Y 2010.

“The climate was very positive. They acknowledge the efforts made over the past few months,” Mr. Stournaras commented after Sunday’s meeting.

On top of the agenda this time, according to government sources, are thorny issues such as the reduction of the number of 150,000 public servants by Y 2015 and high unemployment, revenues collection, tax system reform to counter wide-spread tax evasion, privatizations and the ongoing bank recapitalization.

Creditors, who keep debt-laden Greece afloat with multi-billion EUR rescue loans to avert a chaotic default in the Eurozone in exchange of a tough austerity and reform program, push for swifter steps, as Athens lags on timetables and targets set.

Under the heavy burden of deep recession for a sixth year and record high unemployment rates of more than 27%, Greek officials request more breathing space to avoid social upheaval.

The average Greek citizen already suffers from cuts in salaries, pensions and tax hikes with incomes having been slashed by up to 40% in 3 yrs.

“There cannot be layoffs,” Mr. Stournaras told local media this weekend regarding the pressure on public sector job cuts. He said that over the past 2 yrs the sector has shrunk by some 75,000 through retirement, arguing that the rate of retirements and the ongoing new mobility scheme should meet the goals by Y 2015.

BRICS Watch: The Chinese Economy is Not a “Gray Swan”

As Chinese lawmakers and political advisors meet to discuss national affairs and elect a new state leadership, the Asian giant’s economic outlook is in focus once again.

Doom and Gloomers from the Western media and business circles have predicted a “hard landing” for the Chinese economy. Some dubbed it as a “Gray Swan” i.e., an event that can be anticipated to a certain degree and may have a sizable impact.

These gloomy projections are based on such arguments as “China’s development mode is rife with hidden risks” and “China is about to exhaust its demographic dividend.”

Against the backdrop of the ongoing global financial crisis, China’s Y 2012 growth rate, which fell below 8% for the 1st time in more than 10 yrs had seemingly added to Western pessimism.

But, these assertions are baseless, as abundant data and hard facts are available that demonstrate the world’s 2nd largest economy will enjoy sustained growth and prosperity at 8 or 8+ % for many years to come.

From a historical POV, and since China adopted the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1970s, apocalyptic predictions about the Chinese economy on the tongues of Western pundits, they have proved false without exception.

The health of the Chinese economy points out the mis-information of the Prophets of Gloom.

The German weekly Die Zeit said in an article Sunday that China’s economic prosperity is far from having ended.

The upbeat remarks are echoed by numerous economists. Justin Yifu Lin, former vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, believes that China has the potential to keep growing rapidly at 8% for the next 20 yrs.

This optimism has a solid basis, as China boasts strong exports, strong domestic demand and good potential for continuing reform. Financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, Nomura Securities NYSE:NMR and Barclays Capital NYSE:BCS agree that China is on track for continuing economic growth.

In terms of international trade, China’s performance is also strong. China overtook the United States as the largest world trader in Y 2012. The boom of China’s foreign trade is not in dispute.

Further, China ushered in the largest scale of urbanization in all of human history, unleashing a massive labor force and opening the door for additional domestic demand, which will help drive China’s economy forward.

The new leadership of the Communist Party of China is committed to high-quality, sustainable development, and has a strong will to advance China’s reform processes.

Thus the “Gray Swan” theory is fake in my POV, and has place in serious economic thinking.

The Chinese economy will gather momentum from the reforms, cut through such gloomy predictions and move forward in a sustainable manner IMO. Stay tuned…

ASEAN Watch Myanmar makes efforts to promote agricultural development

Myanmar is making efforts to promote the development of agricultural sector with long- and short-term plans being implemented for transformation of conventional farming into mechanized farming across the country.

Special emphasis is being placed to improve living standard of farmers and boost agricultural development.

On the occasion of Saturday’s Peasants Day, Myanmar President U Thein Sein, in his message, cited the private sector’s active participation in the production of high yield and marketable quality of all crops.

He called on the government to increase agricultural loan to address the peasants’ need of the injection of capital in the sector.

The president encouraged farm enterprises to shift from export of raw agricultural produce to quality product by establishing advanced rice mills, oil mills, refineries and packaging facilities.

He also emphasized the needs to catch up with neighboring agro-based economies through five ways, namely enthusiasm, mindset change, land reform, mechanization and using high-yield strains.

He also called on farmers to boost production for food sufficiency as Myanmar’s population is expected to reach about 100-M in next 30 yrs.

He further underlined the need of higher education for new generation of the farmers.

Meanwhile, Myanmar government and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have signed a five-year Country Program Framework Agreement (2012-16) in February to implement three of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

The program will be carried out by the FAO and 3 Myanmar ministries; Agriculture and Irrigation, Livestock Fisheries, and Forestry to assist the MDGs No. 1, 7 and 8.

Myanmar is also cooperating with the international organizations for the development of agriculture which includes building an agricultural research institution at the University of Agriculture in Yezin in Nay Pyi Taw with the assistance of India.

Upon completion of the institution, India is to send experts to conduct training on academic and research works and the institution will admit graduates from Yezin University of Agriculture for pursuing further studies.

To promote the agricultural development, India has also extended an aid of 10 million U.S. dollars’ farming equipment to Myanmar.

In addition, Myanmar is cooperating with 2 agricultural firms from Thailand and the Philippines in terms of production technique in a bid to produce quality paddy seeds and rice.

The Thai firm will export 1.8-M tons of Rice per year, while the Philippines, which is engaged in research, development and production of superior Hybrid Rice, will export 500,000 tons of Rice annually.

Myanmar is also bringing in Japanese technology from the Mizuho Financial Group Inc NYSE:MFG of Japan to push for agricultural development.

In an effort to boost trade with Myanmar, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) has launched a new business support center in Yangon. Companies from South Korea and Vietnam are also planning to make investment in Myanmar.

MITSUI & Co., Ltd. PINK:MITSY from Japan and Vina Capital LN:VOF from Vietnam have signed memorandums of understanding (MOU) with Myanmar Agribusiness Public Corporation Limited (MAPCO) for agricultural cooperation.

MAPCO will set up the Integrated Food and Energy Production factories in Yangon, Ayeyawady and Bago regions as well as Nay Phi Taw.

An Integrated Food and Energy Production Complex factory will be built in Yangon region, which would be jointly constructed by MITSUI & Co., Ltd and MAPCO.

The Japanese company is planning arrangements to establish advanced rice grinding and purifying mills.

As of the end of Y 2012, foreign investment in Myanmar’s agricultural sector totaled US$182.75-M in 9 projects, accounting for only 0.44% of the total since the country opened to such investment in late Y 1988.

Myanmar exported 610,500 tons of Rice, gaining nearly US$212.2-M in Y 2012, a drop from 789,100 tons and US$307-M in Y 2011, according to the government’s statistics.

US Watch: Dems signal they are ready to compromise on budget cuts

US President Obama is raising the cutting entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security as a way out of damaging budget cuts, a White House official said Sunday, as both sides in Washington tried to limit a fiscal crisis that may soon hit millions of Americans.

Signaling he could be ready to explore a compromise to end automatic spending cuts that began late Friday, Obama mentioned reforming these entitlement programs in calls with lawmakers from both parties Saturday afternoon.

“He’s reaching out to Democrats who understand we have to make serious progress on long-term entitlement reform and Republicans who realize that if we had that type of entitlement reform, they’d be willing to have tax reform that raises revenues to lower the deficit,” White House senior economic official Gene Sperling said on Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” TV program.

Republicans argue that the only way to tame budget deficits over the long haul is by slowing the cost of the huge social safety net programs.

These include the Social Security retirement program and Medicare and Medicaid healthcare programs for the elderly, disabled and poor that are becoming more expensive as a large segment of the US population hits retirement age.

While Obama also has proposed some savings on these programs, he has insisted that significant new tax revenues be part of the deficit-reduction formula, an idea Republicans reject out of hand.

Budget fights in Congress took their most serious turn in years on Friday when $85-B + in indiscriminate spending cuts known as “sequestration” began to kick in after both parties failed to agree on how to stop them.

Democrats predict the automatic cuts could soon cause air-traffic delays, meat shortages as food safety inspections slow down, and hundreds of thousands of furloughs for federal workers.

As the budget battles rage on in Washington, sources said Obama plans to nominate on Monday Sylvia Mathews Burwell to head to White House Office of Management and Budget. A veteran of the Clinton White House, Ms. Burwell is president of the Wal-Mart Foundation, it handles the corporation’s charitable efforts.

Neither Mr. Sperling nor White House spokesmen would provide further details on Obama’s conversations on Saturday with members of Congress, nor did they not identify the lawmakers to whom the president spoke.

Obama’s mention of entitlement reform may help bring Republicans to the table to halt the cuts. Republican leaders also made soothing noises on Sunday about the need to avoid a government shutdown on 27 March, when funding runs out for most federal programs.

US House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, interviewed on NBC’s “Meet the Press” said he “absolutely” would do whatever it takes to keep the government operating. Toward that end, he will seek House passage this week of a “continuing resolution” to fund the government through 30 September, when the F-Y ends.

Some rank-and-file Democrats and Republicans lately sent signals that they are willing to compromise to end a 2 yr-old deadlock over tax and entitlement reforms.

Last week, conservative Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said he was open to raising $600-B in new tax revenue if Democrats accepted significant changes to Medicare and Medicaid as part of a long-term budget deal. Stay tuned…

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At the Movies with Monica Petrucci

Oscar Box Office: ‘Life of Pi,’ ‘Silver Linings Playbook’ and ‘Argo’ Enjoy New Interest

“Django Unchained” makes gains following the 24 February Academy Awards ceremony.

A week after the Academy Awards ceremony Life of Pi along with some other films that picked up top awards saw renewed interest at the box office, even though they are all but finished with their theatrical runs.

Life of Pi, with 4 Oscars, including Ang Lee’s win for best director, was up 43% in its 15th weekend, grossing $2.3-M from 636 theaters for a domestic total of nearly $117-M. The fantasy-adventure saw a rise overseas, where it was up 39%, grossing $2.8-M for an international total of $477-M. Life of Pi has taken in $594-M worldwide for 20th Century Fox.

Oscar best picture winner Argo saw a 21% gain in its 21st week, grossing $2.2-M from 985 locations for a domestic take of $132.8-M, an impressive number considering the Warner Bros. movie came out on DVD on the eve of the Academy Awards.

The Weinstein Co.’s Silver Linings Playbook, the only Oscar pic remaining in the top 10 chart, was up 3% in its 16th weekend, grossing $5.9-M for a domestic total of $115-M and placing # 8. Jennifer Lawrence won the Oscar for best actress for her performance in the film.

Django Unchained was up 5%, grossing $1-M in its 10th weekend for a domestic total of $160.3-M. From the Weinstein Co. and Sony, Quentin Tarantino’s film has taken in $233.4-M internationally for a worldwide total of $393.7-M. Tarantino won the Oscar for best original screenplay, Christoph Waltz took home the best supporting actor prize.

Have some fun, see a movie this week.

All the best,

Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town

_________________________________________________________________________________

US Major Market: Support and Resistance

DJIA close: 14,089.66

Resistance

14,149 the Feb 2013 high

14,198 the Oct 2007 high

Support

14,022 from the Jul 2007 high

The 50-Day EMA: 13,728

13,692 from Jun 2007 high

13,668 from Dec 2007 high

13662 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

13,653 the Sept 2012 high

13,413 the late Sept 2012 low

13,331 the Aug 2012 high

13,297 the Apr 2012 high

The 200-Day SMA: 13,161

13,058 the May 2008 high

S&P 500 close: 1518.20

Resistance

1531 is the Feb 2013 high

1539 from Jun 2007

Support

1499 from Jan 2008

The Nov up trend line: 1491

The 50-Day EMA: 1486

1475 the Sept 2012 high

1471 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

1466 the Sept 2012 closing high

1440 the Nov 2007 closing lows

1434 from Nov 2012

1433 from the Aug 2007 closing lows

1427 the Aug 2012 high

1425 the Oct 2012 low

The 200-Day SMA: 1412

1408 from the Oct 2012 closing lows

NAS close: 3169.74

Resistance

3171 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

3197 the Sept 2012 high

3227 the Apr 2000 intra-day low

3401 the May 2000 closing low

Support

3134 the Mar 2012 high

3130 from the Jan 2013 lows

The 50-Day EMA: 3125

3112 from the mid-Oct 2012 highs.

3109 the Y 2011 up trend line

3101 the Aug 2012 high

3090 the mid-Mar 2012 interim high

3076 the Jan 2013 low after the gap open up

3062 the Dec 2012 high

3042 from May 2000 lows

The 200-Day SMA: 3013

3000 the Feb 2012 high

______________________________________________________________________

US Major Market Sentiment: the Bulls Vs the Bears

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures members who are Bullish, Bearish, and Neutral for the next 6 months.

For your reference: the Bulls marked 35%, the level for Bullishness, hitting 34% in early June, the market rallied. To be really Bearish it needs to get up to the 60 – 65% zone.

For your reference: 35% and over is the zone to be really be a good Northside indicator. Bearishness hit a 5 yr high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since Y 1995, extreme negative sentiment for sure.

NB: Watching the VIX. It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The VIX measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as “the options market’s gauge of investor fear.” Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there’s excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 19**The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money.

***The VXO is the ticker created to track the “original VIX” that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.

Focus on Fx, the EUR/USD pair Bearish, Testing Handle; 1.2875-1.2885 Zone Next ?

Bearish continuation: The EUR/USD continued its downward course after a couple sessions of consolidation. The 4H chart shows the breakdown during the 28 Feb US session, a pullback during the 1 Mar Asian session, and then a continuation through the EU session.

The moving averages in the 4H chart are in Bearish alignment, and the RSI reading has been holding under 60, reflecting maintenance of bearish momentum.

1.30, 1.2875-1.2885: At the start of the 1 Mar US session, EUR/USD is cracking the 1.30 handle.

In the daily chart, we see that below 1.30, there is room to fall until the 50% retracement fibo of the July-Feb rally 1.2041-1.3710 at 1.2875.

Note: 1.2885 is 78.% retracement of the Nov-Feb swing 1.2661-1.2710. So, the confluence of fibo retracement levels in the 1.2875-1.2885 area makes that a possible next support/target.

The latest near-term resistance pivot appears to be at 1.31. A charge back above 1.31 could signal some consolidation. Stay tuned…

Focus on Precious Metals and Energy

The Overall Fundamentals

Precious Metals

Despite a modest rebound earlier last week, the selloff resumed with the benchmark Comex Gold contract losing -0.03% on the week.

The decline in PGMs prices was deeper with Platinum and Palladium losing -2.11% and -2.03% respectively.

The South African government is proposing measures to allow more institutions to provide exposure to commodity ETFs, in particular Gold and Platinum

Crude Oil

Brent Crude dove last week with the front-month contract falling back to the 110 mark as geo-political tensions eased. The P5+1 negotiation about Iran’s nuclear development were held last week in Almaty. While the meeting, the first time since last June in Moscow, has not made any deal yet, it is deemed to be a more constructive one as all parties agreed to hold a new round of talks in Turkey on 17-18 March, and then more high-level talks in Kazakhstan on 5-6 April.

At the meeting, the Western allies agreed to offer Iran limited sanctions relief if it stops its output of 20% enriched uranium. Iran stated that it would consider the offer. Yet, Tehran’s Interim Friday Prayers Leader Hojjatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi stressed that “any proposal which denies the people their rights is dismissed by the nation and no official has the right to compromise in this regard”.

Natural Gas

The DOE/EIA reported a -171 drop of Nat Gas storage to 2 229 bcf in the week ended 22 February. Stocks were -307 bcf less than the same period last year and -308 bcf above the 5-year average of 1 921 bcf.

Baker Hughes reported that the number of Nat Gas rigs fell -8 units to 420 in the week ended 1 March. Crude Oil rigs increased +4 units to 1 333 and miscellaneous rigs remained unchanged and the total number of rigs fell -4 units to 1 757. Directionally oriented combined Oil, Nat Gas, and Miscellaneous rigs slipped -12 units to 185 units while horizontal rigs added +1 unit to 1 141 units and vertical rigs added +7 units to 431 during the week.

The Overall Technicals

Charts by, Omega Research

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold’s rebound attempt was limited by the resistance at 1618.8, and faded into the end of the week. Near term outlook is Bearish, the fall from 1798.1 is expected to continue. A break below 1544.3 targets the psych mark at 1500. It may not be the bottom, be cautious. A clear break of 1618.8 signals short term bottoming and should bring on rebound. A clear break of the psych mark at 1700 is needed for the reversal. Barring that the play is to the Southside.

The big picture; Gold/s price actions from the high at 1923.7 are seen as medium term consolidation. There is no indication that the consolidation is over, more range trading should be seen. The Southside of any falling leg should be contained by the support zone at 1478.3/1577.4, and bring on a rebound. A clear break of the resistance zone at 1792.7/1804.4 augurs that the long term up-trend is resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

The long term picture; with the support intact at 1478.3 there is no change in my long term Bullish outlook for Gold, but some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I see the eventual break of the psych mark at 2000 sooner or later. Stay tuned…

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Comex Silver (SI)

Silver’s fall resumed after recovery from 28.255 and was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA. It tapped a low at 27.925 so far. The near term outlook is Bearish as long as the resistance at 29.43 holds. The fall from should extend to retest the low at 26.105 next.

On the upside; a break above 29.43 say a short term bottom is made, and bring on a rebound.

The big picture; as long as the resistance at 37.58 holds, the price actions from 26.105 are seen as a consolidation pattern, meaning that the down trend from the high at 49.82 is not yet finished, and a new low below 26.105 favored. That being the case, Silver should look for the long term Fibonacci mark at 24.22. But, break of 37.58 dampens this Bearish scenario and could bring stronger rise back to the high at 49.82 and above.

The long term picture; the Big Q remains, is 49.82 is a medium term or long term Top? With 61.8% fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 intact, price actions from 49.82 may turn out to be a consolidation only. And a break of the resistance at 37.58 increases the odds for a new high above 49.82. Stay tuned…

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude Oil’s fall from 98.24 continued last week tapping 90.04 before recovering a bit. A deeper decline is expected and a clear break of the psych mark at 90 now targets support at 84.05 and lower.

On the Upside: break of the minor resistance at 93.37 is needed to signal bottoming. My outlook mildly Bearish for now.

The big picture: the price actions from 114.83 are seen as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this POV. The consolidation could still be in progress and so Crude Oil remains bound in the converging range. The pattern should be close to completion and a Northside breakout might come on soon. A move above 100.42 suggests that entire rebound from 33.29 is resumed for a move above 114.83. And in case of another fall, strong support at 77.28 to bring on a rebound.

The long term picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the 2nd wave of the pattern. While Crude Oil could make another high above 114.83, I see strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation. Stay tuned…

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart

LTNs Hot List

The LTN “Hot List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.

American Estates Management Company PINK: AEMC is an Oil and Gas exploration company that offers the following 3 Key attributes:

1. We have targeted a number a very large acreage position with 100% working interest and good net revenue interest and operations.
   

    

2. We are targeting very large conventional and unconventional resources.
   

    

3. AEMC has an experienced advisory team with a proven company building track record.
   

There is tremendous fuel switching going on from coal to natural gas and from diesel to natural gas. We think it is possible that we will see a 20% increase in demand for natural gas over the next few years, which should allow prices to rise to over $5/mcf.

That being said, we are striving to be the low cost producer in all of our plays. This is accomplished by drilling targets at reasonable depths and on acreage that has good metrics. In most of our plays we are the 1st mover, which affords us better entry costs, higher margins and access to the best lands.

While we are focused primarily on crude oil, our natural gas projects should allow us to be the low cost producer with lifting costs significantly below the large, deep, shale gas plays that are dominating the market today.

These three attributes provide a diversified mix of Oil and Gas exploration targets, with tremendous upside potential guided by an experienced and proven management team.

We expect to move forward with our first acquisition in March.

For a new and small company we have a set our aim on acreage positions in areas where we have 100% control over where we drill, how we drill and when we drill. We feel this is important to be able to effectively bring our resource base into production most efficiently.

1 yr Target Price Estimate: 1.50/shr

Trai Thien USA Inc (PINK: TRTH)

Trai Thien USA is a fast-growing Vietnam-based dry bulk shipping company operating a 21,990 DWT fleet comprised of six geared bulk vessels specializing in providing ocean transportation services for raw material input items such as coal, ore, grain, lumber, cement, steel and fertilizer throughout the Southeast Asia region.

After China, the primary sources of future bulk demand are India, Brazil and Vietnam. The region contains three of the four global BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), seen by economists as the future growth leaders in the world economy.

The Asia Pacific region accounts for 60% of the world’s population and almost 70% of world sea-borne trade in bulk commodities.

In order to meet anticipated continued growth in demand from an expanding base of overseas and domestic Vietnamese customers, as well as to expand the geographic regions that it can service to include potentially more profitable routes in East and South Asia.

The Company’s Vietnam-based operations are located in Ho Chi Minh City, which together with the surrounding areas, accounts for more than seventy percent of Vietnam’s total annual cargo traffic.

Pink Sheets: TRTH

Current Price: 0.14

Current PE: 4.0

Revenue Growth: 148%

1 yr Target Price: 1.00

Analysts Rating: Strong Buy

http://www.traithienusa.com

http://www.livetradingnews.com/hot-charts-mjna-pfno-trth-aemc-92961.htm#.UKB9bIcsmh0

Red’s Bull Trade Alerts and Option’s Alerts are suitable for Big Cap portfolios

Caesars Entertainment Corp NASDAQ:CZR

See them daily at www.liveradingnews.com

Red’s Rules to always play by…

Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”.

Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money)

Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing.

There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10′s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO).

The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge.

As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street’s buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting.

Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they
sell for USUS$5 or less a share. 

And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.

Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains.

Do not think get rich – think get rich slowly; it works.

Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress.

You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free.

Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled.

Again, think “get rich steady” and not “get rich quick” and think Education!

The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80′s.  It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives.