Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
The pundits are out and loud as the US major markets are tapping 5 yr highs. The chatter is, will they crack the resistance from the past and extend the rally, pause and pull back, correct or tank into the Gloom and Doom Abyss?
The fact is, markets can run higher than anyone believes they can. And should the money that is invested on bonds start to exit them, the only place for the money is stocks for returns. That is the conventional wisdom and it is true IMO.
The question then arises what happens when all of that money is in the market?
It is not in yet, so use this action to your advantage, build up a healthy stash, so you have Greenback to invest some hard assets when inflation gets more traction, and things begin to shine like Gold.
Remember, there is a lot of liquidity being pumped into the system by the central banks and that money is helping the markets tap the old highs and move higher. Just because the markets are at the old highs does not mean the sell switch get turned on.
I do not believe the market will sell off this week, it is the beginning of the month and new money will be coming in, we saw it begin Friday as the DJIA is just about 1000 pts higher that is was last year at this time.
On that move we should see some backing and filling, and that mean opportunity. If there is a test it will be even better opportunity. There are good stocks setting up for movers higher. There is money to be made.
I cannot emphasize this enough, if the retail investors start to coming back the run higher could be impressive for months to come, this is the 5th yr of this Bull market that began on 9 March 2009 and for the most part the retail participate are still on the side lines.
You have to be alert and nimble in here to recognize the buying opportunities, they will come, if there is a test the risk/reward will be better. If not play the run till the test comes, and then play the Southside of the action.
When stocks flash buy, buy, when they flash sell, sell. Pay attention is Key. You have to keep all emotion out of the decisions,
Plan your work and work your plan, do not let the Noise influence the plan.
Have a great week.
All the best,
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Red’s Bull and Bear Trade
Options and Block Trading Alert: Sprint Nextel NYSE:S
Profile: Sprint Nextel Corporation offers wireless and wireline communications products and services to consumers, businesses, and government users in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Its Wireless segment provides wireless mobile voice and data transmission services on networks that utilize CDMA and iDEN technologies, as well as offers fourth generation wireless services. Its wireless data communications services comprise Internet access and messaging, email services, wireless photo and video offerings, and mobile entertainment applications, as well as asset and fleet management, dispatch services, and navigation tools; and wireless voice communications services include basic local and long distance wireless voice services, voicemail, call waiting, three way calling, caller identification, directory assistance, call forwarding, speakerphone, and push-to-talk services, as well as roaming services. This segment sells accessories, such as carrying cases, hands-free devices, batteries, and battery chargers, as well as devices and accessories to agents and other third-party distributors for resale. In addition, it markets its post-paid services under the Sprint and Nextel names; prepaid services under the Boost Mobile, Virgin Mobile, and Assurance Wireless names. The company’s Wireline segment provides wireline voice and data communications services, including domestic and international data communications using various protocols, such as multiprotocol label switching technologies, Internet protocol (IP), asynchronous transfer mode, IP-based frame relay, managed network services, voice over IP, and traditional voice services. It also offers wide-area network and long distance services, as well as operates an all-digital long distance and Tier 1 IP network. Sprint Nextel was founded in Y 1899 and is HQ’d in Overland Park, Kansas.
Headlines: Which Telecom Stocks Have the Strongest Earnings Trends: Verizon, AT&T, MetroPCS, or Sprint?
Institutional trading of Sprint Nextel shares yielded a Bought/Sold volume ratio of 0.92 Friday, A total of 587 block trades crossed the tape, with 11,426,535/shares on the Buy side Vs. 12,485,408/shares on the Sell side. From a cash flow perspective, this implies that there was a cash inflow of $65,124,297 and a cash outflow of $71,094,148. The net cash flow for S is $5,969,850, signaling that institutions may have negative outlook on the stock.
Options trading action showed that traders hedged their positions with options where 6,191 Put and 21,818 Call contracts exchanged hands leading to a 0.28 Put/Call Ratio PCR.
A low PCR is often is a signal of movement by the underlying stock. In such instances, the PCR can be used as an investor sentiment indicator, where a high ratio implies that the overall investor sentiment is Bearish and a low PCR implies that the sentiment is Bullish.
S is trading below its 20-D MA, and above the 50 and 200 MA.
Sprint Nextel opened at 5.64 and the stock price rose $0.06 (+1.07%) to $5.69 Fridays’ session, trading between the range of 5.63 – 5.73.
52 wk Trading Range: 2.20 – 6.04
Friday’s Volume: 59-M/shrs is more than the 90 day average of 37-M/shrs.
Divi Yield: 0.0
Next Earnings Date: 7 February 2013
Analysts Recommendation: Hold
1 yr Price Target Estimate: 6.85
Week Month Quarter Half Year Year
- 0.71% -0.71% +2.55% +24.83% +160.65%
|LTNs Analysis for S:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Neutral (0.21)||Neutral (-0.07)||Bullish (0.40)||Bullish (0.29)|
|Recent CandleStick Analysis
|31 Jan 2013||Bearish Harami|
|29 Jan 2013||Bullish Engulfing|
|up||11 Oct 2012||5.13 to 5.5|
|down||14 Jan 2013||5.86 to 5.84|
|Support and Resistance|
|VBu=Very Bullish, Bu=Bullish
Be=Bearish, VBe=Very Bearish
Disclaimer: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or for results obtained from the use of this information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in Good Faith, are subject to change without notice. Before acting on any information contained on the website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.
US Major Markets Preview
Preview: This Week: Disney’s NYSE: DIS on Tap, Media Companies Report
The Q-4, FY earnings roll out continues, with Walt Disney Co., and several media companies and Web firms scheduled to release results. Plus, there is data on productivity in the latest Quarter and an IPO from QGOG Constellation SA are on tap for the coming week.
Quarterly Earnings due from Disney and some other Media firms
Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters project that Disney will post weaker EPS but slightly stronger revenue when the entertainment giant releases its F-Q-1 results.
Disney has completed several multibillion-dollar acquisitions in recent years, including a $4.05-B deal for Lucasfilm Ltd. that closed in December, and CEO Robert Iger said the company is transitioning into a “more compelling growth mode.”
Disney posted a 14% increase in Q-4 earnings, driven largely by growth from its media networks, particularly ESPN.
LTNs Analysis for DIS: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Very Bullish (0.59)
Other media companies due to report next week include; Gannett Co. NYSE:GCI , Time Warner Inc. NYSE:TWX and News Corp. NASDAQ:NWS, NWSA, the owner of Dow Jones & Co.
Among the companies in the social media and web space reporting next week are Expedia Inc. NASDAQ:EXPE, Zynga Inc. NASDAQ:ZNGA, Linkedin Corp. NYSE:LNKD and Yelp Inc. NASDAQ:YELP.
A wave of web companies have gone public over the past two years, though some well-known Web stocks, such as social-gaming firm Zynga NASDAQ:ZNGA and daily- deals site Groupon Inc. NASDAQ:GRPN, have plummeted after missteps and week Quarterly results.
Economic Reports to Gauge Productivity
This week will offer news on productivity during a Quarter in which growth basically stalled. Productivity is an important building block for rising profits and living standards. The stall in output growth last Quarter sets productivity up for a fall, say economists surveyed.
The median forecast of economists surveyed is that output per hour worked declined at a 1.6% annual rate last Quarter, after growing 2.9% in Q-3.
With productivity declining, unit labor costs are projected to have increased 3.2%, more than reversing the 1.9% drop in the third quarter. The US Labor Department will release the report Thursday.
QGOG Constellation to Debut
QGOG Constellation SA, a Brazilian energy-services company, is scheduled to begin trading on the NYSE Friday, in a debut that could rise as much as $577.5-M.
The company, which said it intends to use proceeds from its IPO to pay for two ultra-deepwater drillships and other capital expenses, expects its 27.5-M/share IPO to price between 19 and 21 a share.
Apple’s 128GB iPad Goes on Sale Next Week
Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL recently unveiled a 128-gigabyte version of its iPad with retina display, looking to attract corporate users by doubling the storage capacity of the fourth-generation iPad versions currently available. The new 128GB iPad will be available Tuesday and is priced well above Apple’s other iPad models. The wi-fi model will cost $799 and the wi-fi + cellular version is priced at $929.
K-V Pharmaceutical Looks to Remain in Control of Restructuring
K-V Pharmaceutical Co. PINK:KVPBQ, KVPHQ wants to remain in control of its restructuring, but it may face a challenge.
A Manhattan bankruptcy judge Tuesday is slated to consider extending the time that the drug manufacturer is shielded from the risk of its creditors taking the company’s fate into their hands, a request it was originally slated to take up the prior week.
The threat is real: K-V’s unsecured creditors recently said various investors are circling and have suggested they’d pay the unsecured creditors more than K-V is currently proposing to do.
K-V is proposing to restructure around its flagship drug, Makena, and exit bankruptcy under the control of its senior- secured note holders.
To ensure its ability to press forward with that plan, K-V is seeking an approximately 4-month extension of a ban on rival plans, through 17 June.
Among the significant conferences next week are the Credit Suisse Energy Summit Monday through Thursday in Vail, CO.; the Stifel, Nicolaus & Company Technology Conference Tuesday through Thursday in San Francisco, Calif., and the Cowen Aerospace/Defense Conference on Wednesday and Thursday in New York.
US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis
|1 Feb 2013||QQQ||67.66||Bullish (0.39)||66.95||68.20|
|1 Feb 2013||DIA||139.69||Bullish (0.30)||125.25|
|1 Feb 2013||SPY||151.24||Bullish (0.37)||135.70|
Wrapping Up Last Week
US stocks saw broad gains during Friday’s session and the S&P 500 Finished higher by 1.0%, the DJIA climbed 1.1% and settled above 14,000 for the 1st time since October 2007.
The day was busy with economic data, most of which surprised to the upside. Overseas, China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI signaled continued expansion while readings in Europe were better-than-thought.
Domestically, investors received a full slate of data with the headline report coming in the form of January nonfarm payrolls. During the first month of Y 2013, the economy added 157,000 nonfarm jobs, which fell short of the 180,000 expected by consensus.
In addition, the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9%. The immediate reaction sent equity futures higher as the rise in unemployment signals the US Federal Reserve will not be removing its support from the markets any time soon
The morning sentiment was aided by a strong January ISM index, upbeat December construction spending, as well as the positive revision to the final January Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
All 10 S&P 500 sectors ended in the Black and 5 added at least 1.0%.
DJIA +141.26 at 14001.84, NAS +35.84 at 3177.97, S&P 500 +14.10 at 1512.21
Friday’s volume was strong with more than 750 million shares changing hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Watching the VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index VIX 12.92, -1.36 fell almost 10.0%, and finished near its 52-wk low at 12.29.
Month in Review: US Equities Climb, ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Averted
Responding favorably to the Congressional compromise on tax rates, the S&P 500 jumped 2.8% in the 1st week of Y 2013 and rarely looked back.
Despite some mixed economic and earnings news along the way, the S&P 500 closed with a gain in 13 out of 21 sessions and ended January at 1498.27 its best level since December 2007. The DJIA rose 5.8% and recorded its best January since Y 1989.
Economic Data Painted Bleak January Picture
The bulk of economic data reported during the month beat the consensus. However, data reported for the month of January often came up short.
Of the 7 January reports, 5 fell short of expectations, The Empire Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Index, Philadelphia Fed Survey, Michigan Sentiment, and Consumer Confidence reports all missed expectations, the ADP Employment Change and Chicago PMI surprised to the upside.
The advance Q-4 GDP reading was a headline disappointment, as a 0.1% contraction was recorded for the final Q of Y 2012, that report was not as weak as it appeared.
The biggest drag on quarterly growth came in the form of a 6.6% decrease in government spending. This was largely due to a 22.2% decline in defense spending which followed a 12.9% increase during Q-3
The change in private inventories also subtracted 1.27 percentage points from the change in real GDP.
Personal consumption expenditures, which constitute more than 70% of GDP, rose 2.2%, which was the largest increase since Q-1 of Y 2012.
Business investment rose 12.4%, which was the largest uptick since the third quarter of 2011.
Mixed Earnings could not dampen rally
In 2-H of the month saw the start of the Q-4 earnings season.
Most companies have beaten on the bottom line per usual, hurdling estimates that had been lowered in many cases by analysts ahead of the reports. Revenue growth is still weak, but similar to earnings, most companies have exceeded depressed top line growth estimates.
Cautious guidance has been a common theme as many companies see headwinds in 1-H of the year, although the default opinion is that 2-H of the year should look better.
Transports, Energy, Health Care, and Discretionary Stocks Paced the Gains
The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained 9.4% as truckers and railroads joined the rally enjoyed by airlines since mid-November.
Energy stocks also displayed relative strength and the SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF NYSEArca:XLE advanced 8.3%. This was supported by a 6.2% rise in the price of Crude Oil. The energy component ended the month just under 98.
The Health Care sector has been a standout, trailing behind only energy in the sector rankings on a year-to-date basis +7.4%.
The discretionary sector has also been among the top performers in the S&P 500.
Homebuilders continued their strength from Y 2012. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF NYSEArca:XHB ended January with a gain of 8.3%. Many builders reported strong fourth quarter earnings, replete with reports of strong backlogs and order trends.
Technology Lagged as Apple Weighed
The tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed the remaining major indices as Apple NASDAQ:AAPL, which is the single largest index component, continued displaying weakness.
Shares of Apple sold off through the first half of the month before pausing near the $500 level.
A disappointing 23 January earnings report caused the stock to lose more than 10%. The company fell short of revenue expectations and issued downside guidance.
The largest tech stock ended the month down 14.4%, at levels last seen in February 2002.
Excluding Apple, the technology sector fared relatively well. Semiconductors outperformed despite a rash of disappointing earnings reports and outlooks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index climbed 7.7%.
Defensive Stocks Bid into 2-H.
During 2-H of the month, defensive-oriented sectors started to attract increased buying interest.
Telecoms +1.8% and utilities +4.5% registered the bulk of their gains during 2-H of the month after the broader market had already seen the majority of its rise.
Health care stocks enjoyed strength throughout the month as upbeat earnings supported the space.
Headwinds Remain as S&P 500 Nears Uncharted Territory
As the S&P 500 hovers just 4.3% below its all-time high, challenges remain visible.
A notable drop in consumer confidence occurred as the initial impact of the payroll tax cut expiration was felt by income earners.
Sequester cuts are scheduled to go into effect in March, with the brunt of the impact to be absorbed by the defense sector.
The debt ceiling issue has only been deferred rather than fixed.
Japan’s bold bid to weaken its currency and to inflate its economy is raising the risk of currency wars as other countries aim to support their exporters.
Geopolitical issues are simmering, with conflicts in the Middle East starting to make headline waves e g.
Egypt, Israel/Syria/Iran and North Korea toying with nuclear tests.
Rising interest rates threaten to slow the housing recovery.
Bullish sentiment, which is a contrarian indicator, is picking up noticeably.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. _________________________________________________________________
This Week on the Earnings Front in the USA
Earnings season is in full swing, this week will have many big earnings announcements.
After markets closed Friday and before the open Monday morning the market gets reports from;
Changyou.com Ltd. NASDAQ: CYOU, Gannett Co. Inc. NYSE: GCI, Humana Inc. NYSE: HUM, Randgold Resources Ltd. NASDAQ: GOLD, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. NYSE: RCL, Simon Property Group Inc. NYSE: SPG, and The Clorox Co. NYSE: CLX.
For the complete list go to: http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-calendar.aspx
This Week on the Economic Front in the USA
Monday, 4 February 4
Factory Orders, December (10:00a ): 2.4% expected, 0.0% past
Tuesday, 5 February
ISM Services, January (10:00a): 55.6 expected, 56.1 past
Wednesday, 6 February
MBA Mortgage Index, 02/02 (7:00a): -8.1% past
Crude Oil Inventories, 02/02 (10:30a): 5.947-M past
Thursday, 7 February 7
Initial Claims, 02/02 (8:30a): 360-K expected, 368-K past
Continuing Claims, 01/26 (8:30a): 320-0K expected, 3198-K past
Productivity-Preliminary, Q-4 (8:30a): -1.2% expected, 2.9% past
Unit Labor Costs, Q-4 (8:30a): 2.4% expected, -1.9% past
Nat Gas Inventories, 02/02 (10:30a): -194 BCF past
Consumer Credit, December (15:00a): $11.9-B expected, $16.0B past
Friday, 8 February
Trade Balance, December (8:30a): -$45.4B expected, -$48.7-B past
Wholesale Inventories, December (10:00a): 0.3% expected, 0.6% past
The Most Asked Question Last Week
The Big Q: Red when are individual investors come to this Bull Market?
The Big A: US Investors are flocking to Mutual Funds, making deposits at record rated.
Individual investors rushed into stocks and bonds in January, the biggest month on record for deposits into US mutual funds.
Long-term funds attracted $64.8-B in the 1st 3 wks of the month, according to the Investment Company Institute. The prior record was $52.6-M for all of May 2009, according to the ICI, the data goes back to Y 1984.
Signs of improvement in the US economy and a rising stock market that pushed the DJIA above 14,000 Friday for the 1st time since Y 2007 have prompted Americans to step up their investments.
Equity mutual funds gathered $29.9-B in January’s 1st 3 wks, more than for any full month since Y 2006.
When the US lawmakers moved beyond the fiscal cliff it unlocked a lot of money according to the chief global strategist for JPMorgan Funds, said in an interview. The unit of JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM manages $367-M.
The US Congress at the start of the year reached a compromise to avoid more than $600-B in scheduled tax increases and spending cuts that could have damaged the US economy severely
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 6.1 on the year this year after advancing 13% in Y 2012.
The 20-member S&P index of custody banks and asset managers is up 11% in Y 2013.
Other asset-management firms have noticed the change in investor behavior.
In January people have moved back into equities,” the CEO T. Rowe Price Group Inc. NASDAQ:TROW, said in a 29 January, It is true for the industry and it is true for us, he said.
At Invesco Ltd. NYSE:IVZ, the owner of Invesco, Van Kampen and PowerShares funds, and sales of equity products in January were running 50% higher than in Q-4, its CFO said in an interview Thursday. January has been an extraordinary month in terms of flows coming back into a whole range of products according to Invesco, the firm has $688-B under management.
Money flowed into both international and domestic stock funds in the 1st 3 weeks of January, according to the ICI, whose data for the fourth week will be released 6 February. Domestic equity funds suffered redemptions for the past six yrs as clients fled into fixed income, ICI data show.
Stock funds last attracted more money in March 2006, when they drew $33.1-B. In February 2000, just ahead of the collapse of technology stocks, equity funds won a record $56.3-B, according to ICI data.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
PS: We here at LTN are focused on natural resources, agriculture, the Singapore $, and quality stocks that offer steady returns and high dividends, we call them Aristocrat Stocks (and the events that shape the market prices) and profile them weekly on www.livetradingnews.com . They are not priced to make investors a fortune, but they are priced to give approximately 4 to 5% real return on capital, that beat the bank deposit rates soundly and risk is avoided. Pay attention and Cheer up.
Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!
Red’s Edge and in the Trenches
Reflect and Resolve to Make Money
The area that I believe to be of great importance to those of us who have a keen interest in trading markets is how to better Play the Game of trading and investing.
The 1st thing to do, IMO, is to reflect on what was done last year and how well it was done. I believe it will be the common denominator that some stuff was done well and some not so well. That said it would be a good plan to work to be better at what was not done so well in this New Year.
Looking into the past may be helpful to put together Resolutions that will bring positive changes that bode well for future action in the markets, in order to set up for continuing success.
The common areas that most all traders/players work on to improve in order to continuously post good Percentage and Money records are:
1. Formulate a Trading Plan for their business; this is a business, though many of refer to it as a Game.
2. Follow and fine-tune the Trading Plan along the way.
3. Learn to Cut Losses
4. Stop Cutting Profits
5. Manage your money; remember Your Money and Your Responsibility.
6. Education, Education and more Education, Knowledge is Power.
7. Last but not least are; never enter a position without a Way Out (aka Exit Strategy)
Lumped into 1 Key Trader/Player Resolution and followed will likely lead to improved trading results.
That said, always strive to do your best, use the best tools, be patient with yourself and be happy.
Each new day comes with new opportunities, challenges, and changes.
All the best,
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
PS: if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you “tick”; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE
To succeed in trading, a Player needs Knowledge; Gain it and use it wisely
The Key to Stock Market Understanding
We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades.
Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely.
So, that being said, and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business?
Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing.
Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success.
Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.
So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading.
You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless.
That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask.
So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward?
Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be.
Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game.
For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.
Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life.
In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so.
In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the “Plan” throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.
Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!
Again, the Reminder on Risk
Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.
When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the “Greed” factor; then come the Risk factors that give rise to the Fear factor in trading.
Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk.
Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them
One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even.
It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet.
When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero.
You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks?
Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders.
In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital.
Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires.
To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible.
You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance…
Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify.
The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction.
All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win.
Again, think Education First.
For news and information please go to www.livetradingnews.com, www.paulebeling.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com , www.aseanaffairs.com sign up for RSS feeds on the latest US Market News, ASEAN and World News, Twitter, and the Hot List, it’s Free, and now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Live-Trading-News/193639810672419
My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom
Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby
Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!
Red’s Favorite Quote from last Week: “The turn in interest rates, it will nor necessarily happen when the Fed changes interest rate policy. It’ll be when the market decides the Fed will have to change interest rate policy.” – Goldman Sachs Chairman/CEO Lloyd Blankfein
See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7AT&T NYSE:T Overvalued
A in all aspects of investing there are risks he when investing in dividend-paying stocks.
In order for find good income producing investments there are many things to consider to be successful, there is no such thing as a risk free rate of return T is an example of what not to buy.
When building a dividend-oriented portfolio it is Key to buy the highest-yielding stocks you can find. In this low interest rate scenario the strategy is appealing because it potentially can maximize income, but you have to be careful, as it ignores the Wall Street fact, there is no free lunch. Value must come first.
Investors demand higher yields when they perceive higher risk, and the investors willingly take on the extra risk want more income now because they figure the stock’s price and its dividend could be lowered sometime in the future.
The preference is to limit unnecessary risks, and at the same time pursue strong total returns.
What to do first, find stocks that are fundamentally sound, generate positive cash flow and offer the win-win combination of potentially higher prices and higher dividends in the future.
This does not mean being risk-averse, but find stocks that offer the maximum reward potential relative to the underlying risks. This is the POV that make investors successful and has done throughout the ages.
AT&T Inc. NYSE:T yield 5.3%, one of the highest in the DJIA. AT&T has a history of returning cash to its stakeholders, paying and raising its dividend every year since it was spun-off as regional Bell Operating Company SBC Communications, formerly know as Southwestern Bell Telephone Company, in Y 1984
The telecom giant reported that it had 19-M consumer access lines and 16-M business access lines at the end of Y 2011, plus, its wireless division is growing accounts for approximately 47% of total revenues and its U-verse, TV, Internet-Voice subscriber base is growing. Add these factors and it is reasonable to that AT&T could give stakeholders the Win-Win combination of a higher stock price and strong dividend yield to boot.
Do your homework, and ignore pundits, most miss their marks.
Friday’ PCR (Put/Call Ratio) 0.77
Friday’s Trading Range: 35.04 – 35.63
52 wk Trading Range: 29.69 – 38.58
T is trading above its 20, 50 and 200-D Moving Averages and should retreat.
Divi Yield: 5.17%
Next Earnings Date: 24 April 2013
Analyst Recommendation: Sell
1 yr price target estimate: 31.00
Week Month Quarter Half Year Year
+3.08% +4.54% +1.75% -4.76% +24.74%
Recent CandleStick Analysis Bearish
30 Jan 2013 Bearish Harami
28 Jan 2013 Bullish Engulfing
Direction Date Range
up 1 Feb 2013 34.95 to 35.04
Support and Resistance
Type Value Conf.
resist. 38.34 4
resist. 38.15 2
resist. 37.63 2
resist. 37.49 2
resist. 37.14 2
resist. 36.52 4
supp 35.39 2
supp 35.06 10
supp 34.38 14
supp 34.08 4
supp 33.80 2
supp 33.65 2
supp 33.47 2
supp 33.08 4
supp 32.82 2
Ind. Short Inter Long
EMA VBu VBu N
MACD VBu VBu VBu
Fibs Bu Bu Be
Highs VBu Be Bu
Lows N Be Bu
Trends N N N
BRICS Watch: China’s Steady Economic Growth Continues
China’s non-manufacturing businesses strengthened for a 4th month in January, fueled by the accelerated consumption of retail goods and a growing number of construction projects.
The non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index last month climbed to 56.2 from 56.1 in December, reaching its highest level since September, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported Sunday.
“Stable growth of the non-manufacturing sector is strengthening,” said Cai Jin, vice-chairman of the CFLP.
The index surveys 1,200 randomly selected enterprises in 27 industries. A PMI of above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 indicates contraction.
The civil engineering construction industry saw its fastest growth in January since March, the data showed.
The push for urbanization will increase demand for rail lines, roads and housing, he added.
According to the NBS, the retail industry developed at the fastest rate among the 19 consumer service industries, with a PMI reading that rose to 71.1, up from 66.6.
Friday, the NBS and the CFLP revealed the manufacturing PMI in January was 50.4, compared with 50.6 in December, and suggested the external market still remained a risk factor while domestic demand is holding up.
“China’s growth recovery remains on track, but it is not yet on a solid footing,” said Chang Jian, an economist with Barclays Capital NYSE:BCS.
A moderate recovery, rather than any sharp rebound, will drive up the GDP growth at a pace of 7.9% compared with the 13-yr low of 7.8% last year, a research note from the investment bank said.
Along with the expected growth in development, Chang also predicted that inflation risk and property prices are likely to rise under a neutral monetary stance.
Wang Tao, the chief China economist with UBS AG NYSE:UBS said infrastructure spending and industrial profit may show “very strong” year-on-year growth in Q-1. Stay tuned…
EuroZone Watch: There is no EU budget agreement yet
French President Francois Hollande said Sunday, France is keen to agree the European Union’s 2014-2020 budget at a summit in Brussels this week, but there was still much work to be done.
The 27-nation bloc failed to agree on its EUR 1-T ($1.37-T) budget at a meeting in November.
“We will do everything to find an agreement at the next summit, but conditions are not there yet,” Mr. Hollande told reporters Sunday.
Mr. Hollande said there was still time to reach a deal before the summit starts Thursday.
Mr. Monti said he hoped a deal could be found on the basis of a package that European governments discussed late last year.
“I hope that the system that will follow will be fairer,” Mr. Monti said.
Monti wants a reform of the EU system of rebates, arguing that Italy’s contribution to the budget is out of proportion to its real wealth. Some net contributors, such as Britain, have demanded deep reductions in EU spending plans.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has urged her EU partners on to work together to get a deal.
Mr. Hollande also voiced concern about recent strengthening of the EUR against the currencies of major trading partners.
“The markets have welcomed with magnitude, with excess, via the level of the euro, the confidence they place in the countries that make up the Eurozone,” he said.
The EUR last week reached its highest level in 14 months Vs the USD and in 33 months against the JPY
A strengthening EUR weighs on exports from Eurozone countries, as well as reducing the cost of imports.
1 USD = 0.7301 EUR
ASEAN Watch: Myanmar’s “opening up” draws Best Western Hotels
Best Western International Inc., the world’s 2nd largest closely held hotel chain, will open its 1st Myanmar property in Y 2013, taking advantage of friendlier investment rules and a shortage of rooms in the country.
The Phoenix-based group is considering locations including Yangon and Mandalay, the nation’s 2 largest cities, for the hotel, Glenn de Souza, Bangkok-based vice president of international operations for Asia and the Middle East, said on 31 January.
There are huge opportunities in the country, following new investment regulations,” Mr. de Souza said. “The hotel sector is severely under-supplied, especially in the mid-scale segment, so there will be big opportunities for first movers.”
International visitor arrivals to Myanmar, excluding border crossings, more than tripled to 593,381 in Y 2012 from 2008, figures from the nation’s ministry of hotels and tourism show. The total number of hotels in the country rose 27% to 787 in the same time, the data show.
Yangon will see a “major shortage” of hotel rooms for the next 5 to 10 yrs, as visitor arrivals outpace the supply of hotels, Andrew Langdon, Bangkok-based senior vice president at Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels NYSE:JLL, said in an interview.
The average daily room rate surged more than 350% to $130 for Four and Five Star hotels in Y 2012 from Y 2008, and will climb as much as 25% this year, he said.
The government is planning a new 200-acre hotel zone in Yangon to boost the supply of hotels as the nation prepares to host the 27th Southeast Asian Games in December, Xinhua news agency reported last month.
“Myanmar’s becoming the next Hot Place for the adventurous international guest,” Mr. Langdon said. “International hotel groups are just now going through the learning phase, learning about the market, its opportunities and risks.”
US Watch: US VP Joe Biden says, the US economy is better than expected
The current economic situation in the United States “is in good shape”, US Vice President Joe Biden said in Berlin Friday.
During a talk with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Mr. Biden deliberated the current global economic situation, methods to cope with the chronic issues of mounting deficits, debts, and the prospects of recovery and growth.
“And it was less of a crisis than people think,” Mr. Biden said, referring to the fiscal negotiations in Washington.
Mr. Biden called Germany “an absolutely essential partner”, while “the transatlantic alliance continues to be the basis upon which our entire relations in the world rest.”
“Without a strong Europe and close ties to Europe, it is not conceivable how America’s interest can be met around the world,” Mr. Biden added.
Ms. Merkel said that Germany sends “a positive message” to Biden on the efforts to defuse the sovereign debts crisis, according to a statement after the meeting.
Ms. Merkel also praised “the positive signals” about a planned transatlantic US.-Europe free trade pact, which is widely expected to shore up the economies of both sides.
There are “positive signs” in US President Obama’s agenda for his 2nd term in office, according to Ms. Merkel.
After the talks with Chancellor Merkel, Vice President Biden is scheduled to attend the annual Munich security conference on the weekend.
At the Movies with Monica Petrucci
Box Office Report: ‘Warm Bodies’ # 1 takes $20-M; Sylvester Stallone’s ‘Bullet to the Head’ DOA
Stallone’s action pic debuts to a weak $4.5-M, coming in # 6 and helping to drive down Super Bowl weekend grosses; “Silver Linings Playbook” and other best picture Oscar contenders continue attract film buffs.
Summit Entertainment’s Warm Bodies, a new spin on the zombie genre topped the weekend box office with a solid $20-M debut thanks to younger females, while Sylvester Stallone’s new action pic Bullet to the Head to in just $4.5-M.
Despite Warm Bodies, overall box office grosses were down 26% from last year’s Super Bowl weekend, when Chronicle debuted to $22-M and The Woman in Black bowed to $20.9-M.
Warm Bodies stars Nicholas Hoult as a zombie who rescues a girl, Teresa Palmer, from imminent death at the hands of his fellow undead. An unlikely romance develops, setting off an unforeseen chain of events.
The film hit its target demo of younger females, the group least interested in the Super Bowl. Women and girls made up 60% of the audience, while 65% of those buying tickets were younger than 25. The movie received a B+ CinemaScore.
Jonathan Levine directed Warm Bodies, based on the popular young-adult book by Isaac Marion. Summit, of course, is the studio that adapted Stephenie Meyer’s blockbuster YA Twilight series.
Paramount’s Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters came in # 2 in its 2nd weekend, falling 44% to $9.2-M and putting its domestic total at $34.5-M.
Oscar best picture contender Silver Linings Playbook continue to attract coming in # 3 in its 12th week of release with $8.1-M, down only 14% from the previous weekend. The Weinstein Co. film has earned $80.4-M domestically and is now virtually assured of hitting $100-M in North America.
Zero Dark Thirty grossed $5.2-M for the weekend to place # 5 and push its domestic total to $77.8-M. Django Unchained, Lincoln and Les Miserables remain in the top 10 too, with Lincoln besting the $170-M mark.
Bullet to the Head skewed notably older, with 81% of the audience over 25. It is the 3rd R-rated action movie in a row fall over, after The Last Stand and Parker, and the pic is certain to suffer Sunday because of the Super Bowl.
Produced and financed by Joel Silver’s Dark Castle Entertainment and IM Global/Reliance, Bullet to the Head is based on the French graphic novel Du plomb dans la tete. It stars Stallone as a hitman who teams up with a young Washington, DC, detective, Sung Kang, to track down a team of ruthless criminals behind 2 murders that brought them together. Warner Bros. is releasing the movie domestically per its deal with Dark Castle.
Soft in its limited debut was the crime comedy Stand Up Guys, starring Al Pacino, Christopher Walken and Alan Arkin. The movie, from Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions, grossed $1.5-M from 659 theaters for a location average of $2,276. In the film, Pacino’s character is reunited with his old partner in crime after serving 28 yrs in prison, only to find that his partner has his own ax to grind.
Sony Pictures Classics’ The Gatekeepers, about Israel’s secretive internal security service, posted the top location average of the weekend, opening to $66,777 from 3 theaters for a theater average of $22,226
Have some fun, see a movie this week.
All the best,
Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town
US Major Market: Support and Resistance
DJIA Close: 14,009.79
14,022 from the July 2007 high
The 10-Day EMA: 13,836
13,692 from the Jun 2007 high
The 20-Day EMA: 13,687
13,668 from the Dec 2007 high
13662 the Oct 2012 intra-day high
13,653 the Sept 2012 high
The 50-Day EMA: 13,447
13,413 from a Sept 2012 low
13,331 the Aug 2012 high
13,297 the Apr 2012 high
The 200-D ay SMA: 13,074
13,058 the May 2008 high
13,056 the Feb 2012 high
S&P 500 close: 1513.17
1539 from Jun 2007
1499 from Jan 2008
The 10-Day EMA: 1497
The 20-Day EMA: 1484
1475 the Sept 2012 high
1471 the Oct 2012 intra-day high
1466 the Sept 2012 closing high
The 50-Day EMA: 1457
1440 from Nov 2007 closing lows
1434 from Nov 2012
1433 from the Aug 2007 closing lows
1427 the Aug 2012 high
1425 from the Oct 2012 low
1408 the late Oct 2012 range closing low
1406 the early May 2012 peak
1400 the closing low from the Aug 2012 consolidation
The 200-Day SMA: 1399
1378 the Feb 2012 high
NAS closed: 3179.10
3197 the Sept 2012 high
3227 the Apr 2000 intra-day low
3401 the May 2000 closing low
3171 the Oct 2012 intra-day high
The 10-Day EMA: 3146
3134 the Mar 2012 high
The 20-Day EMA: 3124
3112 from the Oct 2012 high.
3101 the Aug 2012 high
3090 the mid-March 2012 interim high
3076 the Jan 2013 low
3079 from the Y 2011 up trend line
The 50-Day EMA: 3078
3062 the Dec 2012 high
3042 from the May 2000 low
3024 the gap open from early May 2012
3000 the Feb 2012 high
2999 the bottom of the Aug 2012 consolidation
The 200-Day SMA: 2997
2988 the Jul 2012 high
US Major Market Sentiment: the Bulls Vs the Bears
VIX: 12.9; -1.38
VXN: 13.89; -0.94
VXO: 12.44; -1.55
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.9; -0.01
Bulls Vs. Bears
The Bulls are at 54.3% Vs. 53.2% last, and at tapping at the September 2012 mark. Last time the market hit that level SP500 corrected 9% over the next 2 months. The Bulls came in under 35%, the threshold for Bullishness, in early June, hitting 34%. The rally began. They hit 55+ in late February. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high.
For your reference: 35% is the threshold mark suggesting Bullishness. To be really Bearish the Bulls have to get to the 60- 65% mark.
The Bears are at 22.3% Vs 22.3% the Bears are at their limit of their optimism for now.
For your reference: over 35% is the threshold is a good Northside indicator. Bearishness hit a 5 yr high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since Y 1995. Extreme negative sentiment for sure.
NB: Watching the VIX. It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The VIX measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as “the options market’s gauge of investor fear.” Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there’s excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 19**The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money.
***The VXO is the ticker created to track the “original VIX” that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.
Focus on FX, the EUR/USD Pair
Pair Notches a new High, GBP/USD falls
The Non-Farm Payroll numbers for January, came out at 157-K, missing the forecast of 161-K.
There was some volatility following the Non Farm Payroll NFP numbers, and some shakes in the USD and JPY crosses as well as USD/JPY, which eventually broke to the upside to new highs on the day-week-year.
The EUR/USD shook and rose, but Sterling did not join the party as GBP/USD fell sharply.
There was consolidation ahead of the jobs report. The EUR/USD initially rallied after the NFP, but failed to break above the session high at 1.3675. Then if fell below intra-session, pre-NFP consolidation, and dipped below 1.36 to 1.3590, hitting the 200-15-min SMA, the shakeout.
Then a sharp rally followed bringing the pair to new highs, thus resuming the Bullish up-trend it has been in, since July 2012.
At the moment, it is up above the 1.37 handle. The possible target is 1.3830, the 61.8% fibo retracement of the Ys 2011-2012 decline from 1.4939 to 1.2041.
Take good care in trying to pick a Top in this rally. Look for breakouts of the Bullish continuation, or buy dips or Key into the retracements.
GBP/USD breaks down trend line
Other currencies are gaining against the USD and JPY as well, going back to its prevailing Bull trends.
GBP/USD slipped sharply. Looking at the 1H chart, we see the Cable sliding below a rising trend line from 28 January falling below 1.58, and establishing some Bearish momentum as the RSI tags 30.
Overall, it shows lack of direction as the RSI goes from 30 to 70 to 30, and price whips up and down the 200-hr SMA. In the short-term, there is pressure toward the 1.5676 low and if that breaks, there could be some Bearish continuation since falling from the 1.63 area at the beginning of this year.
Focus on Precious Metals and Energy
Charts by: Omega Research
The Overall Fundamentals
Precious Metals: Silver performed best in the precious metal complex last week with a +2.44% gainer, Gold/Silver ratio has moved steadily above 50 since 2-H of Y 2011. Physical demand in terms of coins and ETFs has remained firm over the past year although safe-haven demand has not been as strong as previous years immediately after the global financial crisis and during the peak of the European sovereign debt crisis. Industrial demand for the precious White metal is sluggish. The resilience in physical demand might be an indication that investors remained concerned over the longer-term economic outlook as fiscal issues in the US and stagnation in peripheral European economies would keep the world economy in a dampened mode.
Crude Oil: Crude Oil prices gained last week. The Brent Crude Oil rose to 117.07, the highest level since 13 September 2012, at 1 point Friday before settling 116.76. The +3.07% increase on weekly basis was driven by positive macro-economic factors, and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with reports of Israeli strikes on the Syrian-Lebanese border. Brent Crude outperformed the WTI contract which added +1.97% during the week. The relatively stronger Brent Crude widened the WTI-Brent spread to around -19 last week.
Gasoline: Gasoline prices rose more than +6% last week on closure a refinery supplying gasoline to New York. Oil producer Hess announced that it would close its refinery in Port Reading by the end of the month. That refinery accounts for about 7.5% of Oil production on the East Coast at about 70-K BPD. Philadelphia Energy Solutions would also begin maintenance of its refinery in Philadelphia later. While February is almost the end of the Heating Oil season, it’s the time that refiners begin to restocking for support during Summer. Closure of refinery affects inventory, and concerns over supply issues during Summer have pushed prices higher.
Nat Gas: The Nymex Nat Gas contract dropped -4.21% last week amid more benign weather in the near term and the smaller than expected drop inventory. The US weather forecast showed that this Winter would be around 5% warmer than normal, although it remains colder than last year. Normal weather would be seen in half of February and March. The weakness was also driven by the less-than-expect decline in storage. The DOE/EIA reported that natural gas storage fell -194 bcf, compared with consensus of -198-B, to 2802 bcf in the week ended 25 January. Stocks were -202 bcf lower than the same period last year and +304 bcf above the 5-yr average of 2 498 bcf.
Baker Hughes reported that the number of Nat Gas rigs slipped -6 units to 428 in the week ended 1 February. Crude Oil rigs increased +17 units to 1 316 and miscellaneous rigs remained unchanged and the total number of rigs added -11 units to 1 764. Directionally oriented combined Oil, Gas, and Miscellaneous rigs gained +2 units to 183 units while horizontal rigs added +9 units to 1 136 units and vertical rigs stayed unchanged at 445 units.
The Overall Technicals
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold dropped to 1651.0 but there was no following through selling, and it turned sideways. But, with resistance at 1697.8 intact, the fall from 1798.1 is favored to continue. A move below 1651.0 targets 1626.0 low. A break above 1697.8 suggests that the choppy decline from 1798.1 is finished, and should turn near term outlook Bullish for a retest of 1800, the psych mark.
The Big Picture: Gold’s price actions from the high at 1923.7 are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that this consolidation has completed, and more range trading could be seen. The Southside of any falling leg should be contained by the support zone at 1478.3/1577.4 and bring on a rebound. A clear break of the resistance zone at 1792.7/1804.4 argues that the long term up-trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
The Long Term Picture: with the support at 1478.3 intact, there is no change in my long term Bullish outlook for Gold. Some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, but I see an eventual break of the psych mart at 2000 sooner or later. Stay tuned…
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver fell to 30.745 last week but there was no follow through selling, instead, it turned sideways turning the outlook Neutral f.
On the downside: a break below 30.745 will extend the fall from 32.485 back to support at 29.24, and this argues that fall from 35.445 is not finished and break of 29.24 targets the low at 26.105. A move above 32.845 brings on another rise to the resistance at 34.42.
The Big Picture: as long as the resistance at 37.58 holds, price actions from 26.105 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, meaning that the down trend from the high at 49.82 is not over yet and an new low below 26.105 is favored. A clear break of 37.58 will dampen this Bearish POV and could bring on a stronger rise back to the high at 49.82.
The Long Term Picture: the Big Q remains, is 49.82 is a medium term or long term top? With 61.8% Fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 intact, price actions from 49.82 could turn out to be a consolidation pattern and. a break of the resistance at 37.58 increases the odds of a new high above 49.82. Stay tuned…
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude Oil’s rally continued last week even though upside momentum is unconvincing. Near term outlook stays Bullish as long as the support at 95.47 holds and the rally would then target the Key resistance at 100.42 next. A break of 95.47 will signal that a short term top formed and should bring on a pull back to 55-Days EMA, now at 90.75, and below.
The Big Picture: the price actions from 114.83 are seen as a triangle consolidation pattern, no change in this POV. The consolidation may still be in progress and Crude Oil remains bound in the converging range. The pattern should be close to completion and an upside breakout will likely be seen soon. A move above 100.42 suggests that rebound from 33.29 has resumed for a move above 114.83. And in case of another fall, strong support should be seen above the support at 77.28 and bring on a rebound.
The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the 2nd wave of the pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, I anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned…
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
LTN Hot List
The LTN “Hot List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.
American Estates Management Company (PK: AEMC) provides mining and mineral processing engineering services; geological and environmental services; marketing, project development, project management, and mineral resource management services. American Estates Management Company markets mineral and metal products and equity in mineral and metal projects, and partners in the development of mineral assets and metal production facilities. American Estates Management Company has developed business activity in North America, South America and Asia.
Marketing Mineral Real Estate & Mineral Resources
Mineral Lease & Mineral Resource Sale Negotiation
Mineral Lease Management
Monitor Exploration & Mining Activity
Verify Royalty Payments
Develop Real Estate & Mineral Resource Databases, Estimates & Maps
Valuation of Mineral Real Estate & Mineral Resources
Target Price: 0.50
Trai Thien USA Inc (PINK: TRTH)
Trai Thien USA is a fast-growing Vietnam-based dry bulk shipping company operating a 21,990 DWT fleet comprised of six geared bulk vessels specializing in providing ocean transportation services for raw material input items such as coal, ore, grain, lumber, cement, steel and fertilizer throughout the Southeast Asia region.
After China, the primary sources of future bulk demand are India, Brazil and Vietnam. The region contains three of the four global BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), seen by economists as the future growth leaders in the world economy.
The Asia Pacific region accounts for 60% of the world’s population and almost 70% of world sea-borne trade in bulk commodities.
In order to meet anticipated continued growth in demand from an expanding base of overseas and domestic Vietnamese customers, as well as to expand the geographic regions that it can service to include potentially more profitable routes in East and South Asia.
The Company’s Vietnam-based operations are located in Ho Chi Minh City, which together with the surrounding areas, accounts for more than seventy percent of Vietnam’s total annual cargo traffic.
Pink Sheets: TRTH
Current Price: 0.10
Current PE: 4.0
Revenue Growth: 148%
1 yr Target Price: 1.00
Analysts Rating: Strong Buy
Red’s Bull Trade Alerts and Option’s Alerts are suitable for Big Cap portfolios
Goldcorp NYSE: GG
See them daily at www.liveradingnews.com
Red’s Rules to always play by…
Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”.
Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money)
Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing.
There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10′s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO).
The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge.
As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street’s buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting.
Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they
sell for USUS$5 or less a share.
And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.
Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains.
Do not think get rich – think get rich slowly; it works.
Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress.
You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free.
Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled.
Again, think “get rich steady” and not “get rich quick” and think Education!
The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80′s. It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives.
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Managing investments in equities requires time, knowledge, experience and constant monitoring of stock markets. Those who need an expert to help manage their investments, portfolio management services (PMS) comes as an answer.
The business of portfolio management has never been an easy one. Juggling the limited choices at hand with the twin requirements of adequate safety and sizable returns is a task fraught with complexities.
Given the unpredictable nature of the share market, it requires solid experience and strong research to make the right decision. In the end it boils down to making the right move in the right direction at the right time. That's where the expert comes in.
HCM has decades of experience in providing portfolio Management services, where we help you understand the way into the market
When you invest your hard earned money, it is imperative to know all about your investments. We help you to take those steps forward towards Informed Investments - a consultative and transparent method of investing. With our portfolio management services you are always consulted and informed of all investment decisions, thus giving you total control of your portfolio.
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
Heffernan Capital Management
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699
Heffernan Capital Management
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.
Portfolio Management Services
Protect against inflation and currency shifts.
What is Portfolio Management?
Managing investments in equities requires time,
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