Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
The US indexes are headed towards the old highs, this brings out those that weep and complain that the equity market is a bubble and that there is no more money to invest so the market is set up for another crash off of the coming new highs, and instead of things getting better they will get worse for sure.
What me worry…folks do not make money paying attention to the talking heads and pundits that want to keep them frightened and out of the markets as they have done since March 2009.
There is plenty of money around and sidelined in low yielding savings accounts and bond funds, and people have have money, the big banks have access to the Fed Window and have free Fed money, that money is being put to work in the stock and commodities. So for now I see this road ahead as positive for stocks and raw commodities.
Do not fight the tape, the point is this when the big money is buying, find what they are buying and buy with it. Look for the leaders as they are in position to move higher, and there will be new leaders emerging, they are setting up good patterns daily.
Watch out for the stocks that are extended, the fund managers are not in love with stocks that have PE ratios well over 22 or so,
We are full into earnings season, so far the market likes what it has seen, it is hard to play individual stocks on earnings, it gets dicey and the individual participant cannot act fast enough on a reversal. Best to play the technical patterns carefully.
If the market continues the run to new highs this week, it is time to take some profits, have dry power for the dips and buy back in, there will be a pull back, the sentiment indicators tell us it is coming.
Red’s Bull and Bear Trade
Bull Trade Alert: US Treasury Selling the Balance of its GM NYSE:GM Stake
When General Motors Co. announced that GM had repurchased 200-M/shrs of Treasury-owned stock, the Treasury said it would sell the remaining 300-M/shrs Treasury owns in the next 12 to 15 months.
Friday the US government took the 1st step on the undertaking, announcing that it has begun “a pre-arranged written trading plan” to dispose of its GM shares.
At Friday’s GM share price of 29ish, 300-M/shrs are worth about $8.7-B. The Treasury received $5.5-B from its December sale to GM. The federal government loaned $49.5-B into GM in Y 2008-2009, but will not recover most of that unless GM stock should bounce about 300% in price.
Friday’s announcement from the Treasury claims that the government has so far recovered $387-B of the $418-B, say 93%, of it distributed under the Troubled Asset Relief Program TARP.
Latest News: The 2014 Corvette Stingray Is a `Monster of a Car’
GM’s 52-wk range is 18.72 to 30.86.
GM: 29.28 0.21(0.71%) 18 Jan, 4:02 p EST|After Hours : 29.33 0.05 (0.17%) 18 Jan., 7:48p EST
General Motors shares are trading above their 20, 50 and 200-Day MAs
Divi Yield: 0.0
Next Earnings Date: 14 February 2013
Analysts Recommendations: Buy
1 Yr Price Target Estimate: 35.99
Week Month Quarter Half Year Year
-3.12% +18.67% +20.47% +50.46% +21.86%
Overall Short Intermediate Long
Very Bullish (0.50)
|Recent CandleStick Analysis Very Bullish|
|17 Jan 2013||Bullish Harami|
|14 Jan 2013||DOJI|
|up||19 Dec 2012||25.54 to 26.86|
|up||19 Nov 2012||23.98 to 24.13|
|Support and Resistance|
|VBu=Very Bullish, Bu=Bullish
Be=Bearish, VBe=Very Bearish
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Re-cap of the US Markets for the Week ended 18 January 2013
Wall Street Posts Gains On the Week, Tech Lagged, as the DJIA, S&P 500 close at 5-yr highs
The DJIA and S&P 500 registered gains, the NAS finished lower due to pressure from 2 Key components, Apple and Intel.
Watching the VIX: the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX 12.33, -1.24 fell 9.1% and finished at its lowest level since April 2007
DJIA +53.68 at 13649.70, NAS -1.29 at 3134.71, S&P 500 +5.04 at 1485.98
Volume: trade at the NYSE was aided by the January options expiration, and totaled 1.07-B/shares well above daily average.
Friday, US stocks started slow and off a bit, and moved into the Green at the close, they got off to a slow start despite China reporting its 2012 GDP growth at 7.9%.
The China reading beat all expectations, investor optimism was contained to the Asian session.
In the USA, the only economic data point came from the University Michigan, which reported its preliminary January consumer confidence measure at 71.3, a big disappointment that contributed to early weakness in the major averages.
The S&P 500 and DJIA recovered after headlines out of Washington indicated Republican lawmakers are open to a 3 month debt ceiling extension, such reports were met with some resistance from top Democrats, the White House was said to be encouraged by the proposal.
Strong: Industrials, Materials
Weak: Technology, Financials
Sector leadership came from industrials (+1.0%) and the utilities (+0.9%) space.
On the downside, technology shares were the biggest laggard (-0.3%), followed by financials (+0.2%).
The DJIA was the top performing index, and positive earnings from General Electric NYSE: GE 22.04, +0.74) contributed to the relative strength. The conglomerate reported earnings growth in 5 of its 7 segments, and its stock gained 3.5% on the back of the strong results.
Intel NASDAQ:INTC 21.25, -1.43 reported a Q-4 earnings beat, but its top line results as well as forward guidance disappointed. The stock slid 6.3% and other semiconductor manufacturers underperformed as well.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index slipped 0.5%.
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL 500.00, -2.68 weighed on techs. The stock fell 0.5% after supply concerns were revisited after reports out of Reuters indicated that Sharp PINK:SHCAY, which supplies screens for the iPad, has slowed its production rate.
Such demand concerns spilled over to other Apple supplier as Qualcomm NASDAQ:QCOM 64.48, -0.45) and Skyworks NASDAQ:SKWS 20.88, -0.78 lost 0.7% and 3.6% respectively.
The market saw earnings from 2 major financials. American Express NYSE:AXP 59.78, -0.96 finished lower by 1.6% after reporting earnings in-line with its 10 January 10 pre-announcement.
On the upside, Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS 22.38, +1.63 rose 7.9% after reporting a bottom line beat.
Crude Oil declined 0.1% finishing at 95.38 after trading in a narrow range on the day.
US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis
|18 Jan 2013||QQQ||67.07||Bullish (0.39)||67.04||67.71|
|18 Jan 2013||DIA||135.69||Bullish (0.30)||135.23||136.15|
|18 Jan 2013||SPY||148.36||Bullish (0.39)||135.70|
Next week’s notable earnings: Google NASDAQ:GOOG 704.51, -6.81, and Verizon Communications NYSE:VZ 42.54, +0.41 report Tuesday. Verizon will announce its quarterly results ahead of the opening bell while Google is scheduled for an after-hours release.
US markets will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday.
This Week on the Economic Front in the USA
Monday, 21 January
Tuesday, 22 January
Existing Home Sales, December (10:00a): 5.10-M expected, 5.04-M past
Wednesday, 23 January
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/19 (7:00a): 15.2% past
MBA Mortgage Purchases, 01/19 (7:00a)
FHFA Housing Price I, November (9:00a): 0.5% past
Thursday, 24 January
Initial Claims, 01/19 (8:30a): 355-K expected, 335-K past
Continuing Claims, 01/12 (8:30a): 3200-K expected, 3214-K past
Leading Indicators, December (10:00a): 0.5% expected, -0.2% past
Nat Gas Inventor, 01/19 (10:30a): -148 bcf past
Crude Oil Inventories, 01/19 (11:00a): -0.951-M Past
Friday, 25 January
New Home Sales, December (10:00a): 387-K expected, 377-K past
This Week on the Earnings Front in the USA
This week we have many of the S&P 500 Index reporting Q-4 earnings, plus many DJIA stocks reporting too.
LTN has compiled an earnings calendar for some notables using Thomson Reuters estimates.
The US stock and bond markets will be closed Monday to observe Martin Luther King Day.
Monday, 21 January
Tuesday, 22 January
EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. NYSE: DD 0.07 earnings per share: This marks the chemical giant’s debut on the DJIA stock to watch, with that high 3.7% dividend yield. At 46.60, the 52-wk range is 41.67 to 53.98; the consensus price target is 50.17.
Google Inc. NASDAQ: GOOG 10.62 EPS: The 1st Internet giant to report, the stock is about 10% off of its highs. Look for this to be the benchmark for online ad marketing dollars for Facebook, Yahoo!, AOL and others. With shares trading at 709, the consensus target is 800 for GOOG.
International Business Machines Corp. NYSE: IBM 5.25 EPS: IBM has lagged as a DJIA stock; this should start to abate in Y 2013. The stock is about 10% off its highs, and the 195 price of today compares to a consensus target of 222 on IBM.
Johnson & Johnson NYSE: JNJ 1.17 EPS: This DJIA stock is tapping its 52-wk highs around 73, the consensus target of 76.18 does not imply much upside here, unless analysts begin to lift the target price.
Verizon Communications Inc. NYSE: VZ $0.52 EPS at 442.35, VZ is down from its 52-wk high at 48.77 and has up side to 46.40, the consensus price target. That 5% divi yield is attractive.
Wednesday, 23 January
Amgen Inc. NASDAQ: AMGN 1.44 EPS: This is the 1st major biotech to report, note it is fully valued going into Y 2013, its shares have pulled back substantially from the high above 90. At 82, its consensus price target is 94.35
Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL13.45: Eyes are on Apple in light of the breakdown and sentiment change. Analysts have cut targets, and some have downgraded it. We will wait and watch too.
McDonald’s Corp. NYSE: MCD $1.33 EPS: MCD is back above 92 after damp Y 2012. The price target is 97.40 and the 52-wk high is 102.22.
Netflix Inc. NASDAQ: NFLX -0.12 EPS: Netflix about doubled off its lows. Bearish analyst has been Janney Capital just raised it to Buy with a 129 fair value.
SanDisk Corp. NASDAQ: SNDK 0.72 EPS: The King of Flash Memory is tapping a 52-wk high again, up more than 50% from the worry days in Y 2012 when the stock looked like 30. At 48.41, the 52-wk high is 53.08; the consensus target price is $51.33.
Thursday, 24 January
3M Co. NYSE: MMM 1.41 EPS: After strong GE earnings, the expectations good for this DJIA stock too. It is trading at 98.20, the 52-wk high is $8.50, and the consensus price target is at 103 or so.
AT&T Inc. NYSE: T 0.47 EPS: Smartphone sales from this DJIA stock are out, and we have seen the disclosed charges too. It is at 33.28, the 52-wk range is 29.02 to 38.58 and the consensus price target is 36.52. That 5.4% yield makes “T” the King of DJIA stock divi payers.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. NYSE: BMY 0.42 EPS: The 34.25 price compares to a 52-wk range of $0.64 to 36.34, and the 1-yr target is 34.33.
Celgene Corp. NASDAQ: CELG 1.31 EPS: This is the 2nd big biotech to report results, and at 99 it is just under the 52-wk high of 99.75. The consensus target price of 97.75 is now under the share price.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. NASDAQ: JBHT 0.70 EPS: This is the 1st of the truckers to report, and the 62.55 price is close to the 52-wk high at 63.22 and just over the consensus price target of 62.27.
Juniper Networks Inc. NYSE: JNPR 0.22 EPS: It is at 21.21, its 52-wk high is 25.04 and the consensus price target is only 19.00.
Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ: MSFT 0.75 EPS: This is perhaps the DJIA stock with the most upside according to analysts. Its divi yield at 3.4% is helpful. Trading at 27.20, it has a 52-wk range of 26.26 to 32.95; the consensus price target is 33.79.
Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE: LUV 0.07 EPS: Friday LUV tapped it’s a 52-wk high at 11.45, and the value is favorable for airlines.
Starbucks Corp. NASDAQ: SBUX 0.57 EPS: The stock is trading at 48.40, the 52-wk range is 30.99 to 53.08 and the consensus target is just 51.33. Starbucks has performed very well, the valuation is high IMO.
Friday, 25 January
Honeywell International Inc. NYSE: HON 1.10 EPS: Expectations for this DJIA stock is up after GE’s strong numbers. It is at 67.40, and the 52-wk high was hit Friday at 67.78. The consensus price target is 71.30.
Kimberly Clark Corp. NYSE: KMB 1.36 EPS: Trading at 86.32, the 52-wk trading range is 70.50 to 88.25, and the consensus target price is 87.27. It feels priced right in here, and the 3.5% divi yield is attractive.
Procter & Gamble Co. NYSE: PG 1.11 EPS: There was activist pressure on this DJIA stock, but P&G is back up to about 70ish, and the 52-wk range is 59.07 to 70.99. The consensus price target is 74.79 for the consumer products giant.
All estimates and price targets are from Thomson Reuters, some of these estimates may change before the reports. LTN will be publishing more detailed preview on some of these Key stocks ahead of the official reports. Stay tuned…
For the complete list go to: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20130121.html
The Most Asked Question and again last Week
The Big Q: Red, do I need Gold, do I need it now?
The Big A: the German central bank is bringing Gold stored in the US and France Home
The German central bank is bringing Gold stored in the US and France Home
Germany announced last Tuesday that it is recalling 300 tons of Gold currently held at the US Federal Reserve and all 374 tons held at the Banque de France.
Why does Germany want all of its Gold out of France?
Bill Gross asked on Twitter, could it be that “central banks don’t trust each other”.
Perhaps not, the Germans now want to be certain their Gold is there all of it.
Trader Dennis Gartman wrote in his Gartman Letter, “This is stunning news, and the scramble shall be on,” “Suddenly there is concern… for if the Bundesbank is uncertain that its Gold is there, then should we not also be concerned?”
The best way to be certain your Gold is there is to actually have it in your possession. The Big Q is: what’s the best way for you to hold your Gold?
The Big A: experts recommend you hold at least a portion of your Gold in physical Gold as opposed to in bits and bytes through a brokerage account.
The simplest way for most Americans to hold physical gold is by buying “Bullion” coins, they are Gold coins that sell for roughly the Gold content in the coin, including; US Gold Eagles or South African Krugerrands. They are easy to store, buy and sell.
“Bullion” coins will always sell for their gold content no more, no less.
Then there are the numismatic Gold coins, some hold upside potential, with a bit more downside risk than Bullion coins, and now the premium over melt value on rare Gold coins is near record lows.
For example: the pre-1933 Saint-Gaudens coin, in MS64 condition, bottomed out in early Y 2008 at a premium of 31% over its melt value. After the premium bottomed, coin prices climbed. The Saint-Gaudens rose by more than $1,000 a coin in just over a year.
But, now this coin is at a 31% premium to its melt value.
Over the last 10 yrs, the average premium is about twice what it is now; it has climbed as high as 118%.
The current Risk Vs Reward; Strong upside potential, as these rarer coins can spike in value in Gold Bull Markets, and the Southside risk is limited by the value of Gold in the coin.
Note: pre-1933 MS64 Saint-Gaudens coins are currently selling near a record-low premium to melt value, so there is 2 ways to make money; gold can go up in price and/or the premium over melt value can expand.
Germany is bringing its Gold holdings back home, Gold investors should take note of the central bank’s action, and Gold coins are a way to keep Gold close to home.
PS: We here at LTN are focused on natural resources, agriculture, the Singapore $, and quality stocks that offer steady returns and high dividends, we call them Aristocrat Stocks (and the events that shape the market prices) and profile them weekly on www.livetradingnews.com . They are not priced to make investors a fortune, but they are priced to give approximately 4 to 5% real return on capital, that beat the bank deposit rates soundly and risk is avoided. Pay attention and Cheer up.
Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!
Red’s Edge and in the Trenches
Reflect and Resolve to Make Money
The area that I believe to be of great importance to those of us who have a keen interest in trading markets is how to better Play the Game of trading and investing.
The 1st thing to do, IMO, is to reflect on what was done last year and how well it was done. I believe it will be the common denominator that some stuff was done well and some not so well. That said it would be a good plan to work to be better at what was not done so well in this New Year.
Looking into the past may be helpful to put together Resolutions that will bring positive changes that bode well for future action in the markets, in order to set up for continuing success.
The common areas that most all traders/players work on to improve in order to continuously post good Percentage and Money records are:
1. Formulate a Trading Plan for their business; this is a business, though many of refer to it as a Game.
2. Follow and fine-tune the Trading Plan along the way.
3. Learn to Cut Losses
4. Stop Cutting Profits
5. Manage your money; remember Your Money and Your Responsibility.
6. Education, Education and more Education, Knowledge is Power.
7. Last but not least are; never enter a position without a Way Out (aka Exit Strategy)
Lumped into 1 Key Trader/Player Resolution and followed will likely lead to improved trading results.
That said, always strive to do your best, use the best tools, be patient with yourself and be happy.
Each new day comes with new opportunities, challenges, and changes.
All the best,
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
PS: if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you “tick”; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE
To succeed in trading, a Player needs Knowledge; Gain it and use it wisely
The Key to Stock Market Understanding
We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades.
Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely.
So, that being said, and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business?
Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing.
Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success.
Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.
So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading.
You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless.
That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask.
So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward?
Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be.
Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game.
For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.
Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life.
In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so.
In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the “Plan” throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.
Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!
Again, the Reminder on Risk
Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.
When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the “Greed” factor; then come the Risk factors that give rise to the Fear factor in trading.
Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk.
Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them
One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even.
It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet.
When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero.
You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks?
Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders.
In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital.
Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires.
To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible.
You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance…
Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify.
The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction.
All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win.
Again, think Education First.
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My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom
Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby
Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!
Red’s Favorite Quote from last Week; “The president’s actions are not just an attack on the Constitution and a violation of his sworn oath of office — they are a direct attack on Americans that place all of us in danger,” Stockman said. “If the president is allowed to suspend constitutional rights on his own personal whims, our free republic has effectively ceased to exist.” —Rep. Steve Stockman (R-Texas)
See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7
China’s growing middle class will benefit the World
The growing Chinese middle class is not only good for China, but for the World, Dalton McGuinty, Premier of Canada’s Ontario province, said in an interview Saturday.
It is Mr. McGuity’s 4th trade mission to China and his 5th China trip.
Asked about the most impressive changes he had seen in China since his 1st traveled there, he said every time he came, there were more highways, more subways, more airports, and the cities were getting larger.
“There is a mass migration of people from the countryside and into the cities. This creates challenges for leaders who are trying to manage this migration to ensure there is an economic opportunity, and to ensure there is a distribution of wealth,” he said.
“So I see growth and I see challenges of growth, but I also see more Chinese becoming part of the middle class, making a bit more money and enjoying a better quality of life,” he said.
Mr. McGuinty and his team came to China to seek more business opportunities for companies from his province.
According to a press release from his office, Canadian companies from Ontario have signed new business agreements worth US$800-M with Chinese partners.
Yet, the premier also said the two sides could tap even more potential in the agriculture/food business.
“Canada has very high quality standards for our food. They are highly trusted internationally,” the Premier said, adding they wanted to bring to the Chinese market “safe, trusted and nutritious” infant formula, as well as chicken and beef products.
Speaking of the problems facing two-way trade, the Canadian official said China was excluding poultry products from Ontario, adding the two sides had been in communication over the issue.
“I hope that within the next several months China will open the door to Ontario poultry products,” he said.
When asked about his administration’s efforts to promote the development of clean energy resources, Mr. McGuinty said 25% electricity generation in his province was Coal-based 9 yrs ago when he became premier; it is less than 1% now.
“We have secured US$27-B of new investment in clean energy industry that creates tens of thousands of new jobs in the clean sector,” he said.
He also said people in Ontario had accepted nuclear power as an important part of their energy plan, adding that harnessing the power of wind and the sun was good but it was not enough, and Ontario’s 50 yrs experience could prove that nuclear power was safe and stable.
On bi-lateral energy cooperation, Mr. McGuinty said the 2 sides signed a memorandum of understanding for science and technology Friday, and hopefully that would lead to joint investment in clean energy research.
“There are all kinds of opportunities for us to participate in clean energy cooperation because, ultimately, there is just one air shed … one water basin … we all have an interest in it, to do what we can to protect the environment,” he said.
EU Watch: Paris Fashion Week: Richly dyed Crocodile and Suede T-Shirts from Hermes
The global pull of Hermes’ Birkin Bag must crease the crook of Hermès’ arm just a little bit: for there is so much more to Paris’s pure luxury house than that handbag.
Its women’s wear designer Christophe Lemaire deployed every ounce of Hermès savoir faire in this new collection.
Its lush carre ACUTE ON E prints; grids, geometrics, florals, a tree of life were used in Summer-perfect separates.
Hermes’ leather-working expertise shone through in baggy jackets in a chessboard weave and richly dyed Crocodile and Suede T-shirts and shorts that moved against the models with silky fluidity.
Elegant suiting, a textbook trench coat, and some horsy, harness-like attachments galloped too.
For the legion of hand bag fans, there were some rhombus-print totes, a long-zippered clutch, and a house-leather rucksack: the ideal Birkin substitute for the backpack generation.
The Verdict: Mon. Lemaire’s future is Hermès Orange.
ASEAN Watch: Cambodia’s inflation stands at 3% last year
Cambodia’s inflation rate decelerated to 3% last year, down from 4.9% in the prior year, Governor of the National Bank of Cambodia NBC Chea Chanto said Saturday.
“This is a remarkable drop and the 3% rate last year is low and controllable,” he said in a speech during the annual NBC conference.
In Y 2012 the Cambodian Riel currency appreciated about 1.7% against the USD.
The country’s gross official reserves have continued their steady rise to US$3.7-B by December last year, said the Governor.
Last year’s lower inflation rate was thanks to stable prices of food. However, gasoline price remains high.
On Saturday, a liter of gasoline was US$1.36 at the pump.
The Asian Development Bank ADB and the International Monetary Fund IMF predicted in October that the country’s inflation was 3 and 3.5% respectively in Y 2012 due to moderate price increases for food and fuel
BRICS Watch: Over-regulation in the US, UK and EU driving investment to Asia
HCM sees the proposed US, UK and EU regulatory change as anti-Globalization and sees Singapore and Hong Kong step into fill the space.
The E V-P of China Investment Corporation said that the pending Western rules, some scheduled to become law in Y 2015 and implemented by Y 2019, amounted to over-regulation impairing banks’ competiveness and will drive global banks to switch HQ’s and investments to Asia.
And that such new standards planned for foreign banking organizations FBOs in the US under the Dodd-Frank Act are counter-productive to Chinese institutional expansion.
Under the proposals, FBOs, defined as global institutions with consolidated assets of $50-N or more would be required to set up a separately capitalized intermediate holding company for all their US subsidiaries.
This FBO regulation is counter-intuitive; the competition among China’s Big 4 state-owned commercial banks is already as intense as a Tug of War. Imagine the US government expecting CIC to consolidate these under one intermediate holding company, it will not happen IMO. Stay tuned…
US Watch: US Fed’s Lacker Wants End to Bond Purchases, Warns Inflation Will Rise Quickly
US Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker warned in comments to the German daily Handelsblatt for publication Monday that the Fed should end its bond buys as soon as possible.
He said risks from bond purchases are bigger than the advantages, according to Handelsblatt.
Mr. Lacker repeated his recent warnings that an inflation surge could result. He said he is worried that if the Fed fails to act quickly enough, a fast rise in inflation in the US could surprise the Fed in Y 2014, according to the newspaper.
At the Movies with Monica Petrucci
Domestic Box Office Report: Arnold shot down by ‘Mama,’ ‘Zero Dark Thirty’
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s “The Last Stand” DOA, Mark Wahlberg-Russell Crowe thriller “Broken City” struggling; “Silver Linings Playbook” climbs up the chart expanding nationwide.
The Horror pic Mama starring Zero Dark Thirty’s Jessica Chastain is easily winning the long Martin Luther King weekend at the North American box office, beating 2 R-rated films packing plenty of male heat: the Mark Wahlberg-Russell Crowe action-thriller Broken City and Arnold Schwarzenegger’s The Last Stand.
Mama, from Universal, is projected to Top the 4 day holiday weekend with a better-than-expected $33.2-M after taking in $28.1-M in the 1st 3-days. The movie clearly is benefiting from its teen-friendly PG-13 rating.
Broken City is expected to gross $10-M for the 4-day weekend after a disappointing 3 day take of $9-M. The movie, from Emmett/Furla Films and New Regency, earned a B CinemaScore though it received terrible reviews. Broken City tied with holdover Gangster Squad for # 4.
From Lionsgate, Last Stand came in at # 10 after earning $6.3-M for the 3-day weekend. The gun-laden action pic, which is expected to gross $7.4-M for the 4 days, marks Schwarzenegger’s 1st leading role since Y 2003 and does not look good for the Govenator’s return to Stardom. Nearly 80% of the audience was older than 25.
Ms. Chastain has good reason to celebrate: Sony and Annapurna’s Zero Dark Thirty is holding at # 2 with a 3-day gross of $17.6-M, and a projected 4-day take of $21.4-M, moving its take right along to nearly $60-M. That gives her the Top 2 spots at the domestic box office.
Zero Dark Thirty is among a handful of Best Picture Oscar noms seeing a rise from the awards attention. David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook is the weekend’s most noticeable example as it expanded nationwide, grossing $11.4-M to come in # 3. The film’s total is nearing $60-M to date.
Silver Linings is expected to take in $14.2-M for the 4 day holiday weekend in a win for The Weinstein Co. Many box-office observers thought Harvey Weinstein made a fatal mistake in deciding not to open the film nationwide in November, opting instead for a limited rollout.
Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, another Best Picture nom, is seeing an awards rise as it opened in 54 markets overseas, scoring $48.1-M even though much of Europe being buried in snow.
In North America, Mama prospered thanks to young females; women and teenage girls made up 61% of the audience, while an impressive 63% of the audience was under 25. The horror pic was made for a about $15-M.
Universal won the MLK weekend last year when Contraband, starring Mark Wahlberg, opened to $28-M.
Broken City and Last Stand had to compete for older males, 78% of Broken City’s audience also was over 25.
At the specialty box office, best picture contender Amour continued to over perform, grossing $413,261 from 9 theaters for a location average of $11,479.
Final numbers for the 4-day holiday weekend will be released Monday.
Have some fun, see a movie this week.
All the best,
Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town
US Major Market: Support and Resistance
DJIA Close: 13,649.70
13,653 the Sept 2012 high
13,662 the Oct 2012 intra-day high
13,668 from Dec 2007 high
13,692 from June 2007 high
14,022 from the July 2007 high
13,497 the 10-Day EMA
13,413 the late Sept 2012 low
13,331 the Aug 2012 high
13,297 the Apr 2012 high
13.260 the 50-Day EMA
13,058 the May 2008 high
13,056 the Feb 2012 high
13,033 the 200-Day SMA
12,716 the Apr 2012 closing low
12,524 support from Summer Y 2012
S&P 500 close: 1485.98
1499 from Jan 2008
1539 from Jun 2007
1475 the Sept 2012 high
1471 the Oct 2012 intra-day high
1470 the 10-Day EMA
1466 the Sept 2012 closing high
1441 a down trend line from the Sept 2012 high
1440 from the Nov 2007 closing lows
1438 the 50-Day EMA
1434 from Nov 2012
1433 from the Aug 2007 closing lows
1427 the Aug 2012 high
1425 from the Oct 2012 low
1408 the late Oct 2012 losing low
1406 the early May 2012 high
1400 the closing low from Aug 2012
1394 the 200-Day SMA
1378 the Feb 2012 high
NAS close: 3134.71
3171 the Oct intra-day high
3197 the Sept 2012 high
3227 the Apr 2000 intra-day low
3401 the May 2000 closing low
3134 the March 2012 high
3112 the 10-Day EMA
3112 the mid-Oct 2012 high.
3101 the Aug 2012 high
3090 the mid-Mar 2012 interim high
3076 the late Apr 2012 high
3062 the Dec 2012 high
3057 from the 2011 up trend line
3042 from the May 2000 low
3046 the 50-Day EMA
3024 from the Gap point in early May 2012
3000 from the Feb 2012 high
2999 the bottom of the Au 2012 consolidation
2992 the 200 Day SMA
2988 the Jul 2012 high
US Major Market Sentiment: the Bulls Vs the Bears
VIX: 12.46; -1.11
VXN: 14.17; -0.9
VXO: 12.14; -1.28
Put/Call Ratio CBOE: 0.75; -0.04
Bulls Vs Bears
The Bulls are at 51.1% Vs 47.8%. They are charging toward the September high that preceded the pullback, the pattern is similar, Bears are watching;
For your reference: 35%, the mark for Bullishness, in early June it hit 34% in early June, and the market rally began. To be really Bearish it needs to get up to the 60 – 65% mark.
The Bears are a 23.4% Vs 24.5%. Fading to match the low set 4 wks ago. Bulls are watching.
For your reference: 35% is a good upside indicator. Bearishness hit a 5 yr high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took Bearish sentiment to its highest level since Y 1995, extreme negative sentiment for sure.
NB: Watching the VIX. It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The VIX measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as “the options market’s gauge of investor fear.” Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there’s excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 19**The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money.
***The VXO is the ticker created to track the “original VIX” that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.
Focus on FX, the EUR/USD Pair
Forex Trade Idea: EUR/USD pair 1.3307 Stand Aside
The Trend: Up
Original strategy: Exit Long entered at 1.3315
Position: Long at 1.3315
New strategy: Stand aside
Tenkan-Sen level: 1.3347
Kijun-Sen level :1.3347
Ichimoku cloud top :1.3322
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.3322
After its intra-day rise to 1.3398, as the EUR fell sharply after fading below prior resistance at 1.3404, current breach of the lower Kumo augurs that near term downside risk remains for weakness towards Thursday’s low at 1.3270, but support at 1.3258, last week’s low, would limit any Southside at 1.3220-25, the 50% Fibo retracement of 1.3038-1.3404 would hold, bringing on another rise after.
A clear break above 1.3370-75 will again signal Bullishness, bring another test of 1.3398, but a clear break of the recent high at 1.3404 is needed to confirm that the up-move is resumed and extend its gain to 1.3440-45, the 50% Fibo projection of 1.3038-1.3404 measuring from 1.3258, then a move to 1.3484, 61.8% Fibo projection, but if the move fades below the psych resistance mark at 1.3500-10, 61.8% Fibo projection of 1.2998-1.3404 measuring from 1.3258, I look for another fall.
That said, prudent demands standing aside for now. Stay tuned…
Focus on Precious Metals and Energy
Charts by: Omega Research
The Overall Fundamentals
Silvers price gained more than +5% last week. Industrial demand is expected to be the driver for the metal’s firmness in coming months.
It was PGM metals that had led the rally in the precious metal complex last week. Anglo American Platinum LN:AAL proposed to close 2 of its mines in South Africa. While the impacts on supply are expected to be less severe than suggested by the news headlines, the closure would eliminate 14000 jobs. This has triggered strikes by labor unions.
By rising to 1700, Platinum has regained its premium over Gold which it has lost since 2-H of Y 2012.
The WTI-Brent spread narrowed last week as WTI Crude rallied while Brent Crude moved sideways.
Bullishness in WTI Crude Oil was driven by start-up of the expanded Seaway pipeline.
Enterprise Products Partners LP NYSE:EPD completed expansion of the Seaway pipeline by 250-K BPD to 400-K BPD on 11 January.
The expansion will help alleviate the bottleneck at Cushing OK, reducing its surplus Crude Oil inventory.
Sunoco Logistics Partners LP and Magellan Midstream Partners LP NYSE:MMP are expanding pipelines running from West Texas to Houston by a total of +145-K BPD as soon as the end of Q-1 of Y 2013. Cushing stock was on the rise over the past 6 wks, gaining 6.23-M BPD in total.
WTI-Brent spread narrowed to -15.6 last wk. The narrowing may continue in the near-term until the pace of reduction surplus inventory eases and when refinery turnarounds peak expectedly in Q=2 of Y 2013.
Nymex Nat Gas rose more than +7% last week, driven by colder weather forecasts and the sharp drop in Nat Gas inventory.
The DOE/EIA reported that Nat Gas storage fell -148 bcf to 3618 bcf in the week ended 11 January. Stocks were -147 bcf lower than the same period last year and +316 bcf above the 5-yr average of 2 852 bcf.
The reports of militants seizing control of the Amenas Nat Gas field in southern Algeria also lifted Nat Gas’ price.
Algeria is a Key Nat Gas exporter to Europe, mainly to Spain and Italy of about 30 bcm/y. Loss of the field would cause Nat Gas flow to Europe to drop, with reports suggesting that flows to Italy dropped 17% on the 1st day.
Baker Hughes NYSE:BHI reported that the number of Nat Gas rigs slipped -5 units to 429 in the week ended 18 January. Oil rigs decreased -7 units to 1 316 and miscellaneous rigs remained unchanged and the total number of rigs fell -12 unit to 1 749.
Directionally oriented combined Oil, Gas, and Miscellaneous rigs slipped -2 units to 180 units while horizontal rigs gained +8 units to 1 127 units and vertical rigs slid -18 units to 442 during the week.
The Overall Technicals
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold’s recovery from 1626 extended last week struggling to stay above resistance at 1695.4. My near term outlook is turned Neutral focusing on 1695.4.
A clear break there suggests that the corrective fall from 1695.4 has finished, and will turn near term outlook Bullish again for a move toward the 1st resistance at 1755.0. But, a break of support at 1626.0 will augur for a fall back to the support zone at 1478.3/1577.4.
The Big Picture: Gold’s price actions from the high at 1923.7 are seen as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that this consolidation is finished, and more range trading will likely be seen. And any Southside falling leg should be contained at 1478.3/1577.4 the support zone, and bring on a rebound. A, clear break of the resistance zone at 1792.7/1804.4 augurs that the long term up trend is resuming for a move new high above 1923.7.
The Long Term Picture: Support is intact at 1478.3 so there is no change in my long term Bullish outlook for Gold, though some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I still see an eventual break of the psych resistance at 2000 sooner or later. Stay tuned…
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver’s rebound from 29.24 extended last week too, and the break of the resistance at 31.535 says that the fall from 34.42 is finished.
Note: the corrective fall from 35.445 may also have finished with 3 waves down to 29.24.
Now at rise is favored to the resistance at 34.42 first. A clear break there will resume the rally from 26.105.
On the Downside: A break below 31.05 turns the focus back to the support at 29.24.
The Big Picture: as long as resistance at 37.58 holds, price actions from 26.105 are viewed as a consolidation pattern only. Meaning that the down trend from 49.82 high is not over, and an new low below 26.105 is favored. However, a clear break of 37.58 dampens this Bearish POV, and could bring on a stronger rise back to the high at 49.82.
The Long Term Picture: the Big Q is still with us, that is this, is 49.82 is a medium term or long term top? With the 61.8% Fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 intact, price actions from 49.82 could eventually turn out to be just consolidation. And a clear break of resistance at 37.58 will ever increase the odds of a Silver making a new high above 49.82. Stay tuned…
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude Oil rose to 96.04 last week, closing firmly above the 61.8% Fibo retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 94.17.
I expect this rally to continue this week for a retest of the Key resistance at 100.42. But, a clear break of the support at 93.11 is needed to signal short term topping. Barring that my outlook is mildly Bullish for Crude Oil even in case of pull back.
The Big Picture: Crude Oil’s price actions from 114.83 are seen as a triangle consolidation pattern, and there is no change in this POV. Such consolidation could still be in progress and Crude Oil remains bounded in the converging range. The pattern should be close to completion and a Northside breakout should come on soon. A move above 100.42 will suggest that rebound from 33.29 has resumed for a move to and above 114.83. But, if there is another fall, strong support should be seen above 77.28 and bring on a rebound.
The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, I still see strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned…
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
LTN Hot List
The LTN “Hot List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.
American Estates Management Company (PK: AEMC) provides mining and mineral processing engineering services; geological and environmental services; marketing, project development, project management, and mineral resource management services. American Estates Management Company markets mineral and metal products and equity in mineral and metal projects, and partners in the development of mineral assets and metal production facilities. American Estates Management Company has developed business activity in North America, South America and Asia.
Marketing Mineral Real Estate & Mineral Resources
Mineral Lease & Mineral Resource Sale Negotiation
Mineral Lease Management
Monitor Exploration & Mining Activity
Verify Royalty Payments
Develop Real Estate & Mineral Resource Databases, Estimates & Maps
Valuation of Mineral Real Estate & Mineral Resources
Target Price: 0.50
Trai Thien USA Inc (PINK: TRTH)
Trai Thien USA is a fast-growing Vietnam-based dry bulk shipping company operating a 21,990 DWT fleet comprised of six geared bulk vessels specializing in providing ocean transportation services for raw material input items such as coal, ore, grain, lumber, cement, steel and fertilizer throughout the Southeast Asia region.
After China, the primary sources of future bulk demand are India, Brazil and Vietnam. The region contains three of the four global BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), seen by economists as the future growth leaders in the world economy.
The Asia Pacific region accounts for 60% of the world’s population and almost 70% of world sea-borne trade in bulk commodities.
In order to meet anticipated continued growth in demand from an expanding base of overseas and domestic Vietnamese customers, as well as to expand the geographic regions that it can service to include potentially more profitable routes in East and South Asia.
The Company’s Vietnam-based operations are located in Ho Chi Minh City, which together with the surrounding areas, accounts for more than seventy percent of Vietnam’s total annual cargo traffic.
Pink Sheets: TRTH
Current Price: 0.10
Current PE: 4.0
Revenue Growth: 148%
1 yr Target Price: 1.00
Analysts Rating: Strong Buy
Red’s Bull Trade Alerts and Option’s Alerts are suitable for Big Cap portfolios
Goldcorp NYSE: GG
See them daily at www.liveradingnews.com
Red’s Rules to always play by…
Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”.
Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money)
Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing.
There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10′s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO).
The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge.
As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street’s buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting.
Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they
sell for USUS$5 or less a share.
And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.
Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains.
Do not think get rich – think get rich slowly; it works.
Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress.
You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free.
Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled.
Again, think “get rich steady” and not “get rich quick” and think Education!
The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80′s. It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives.
- General Motors NASDAQ:GM Returns to $33 IPO Price After 2 yrs
May 18, 2013
- The Bounce List: VDSC, EVSV, AEMC
May 17, 2013
- James Cameron: Brother’s SafeCig and VaporBrands International Inc (PINK:VAPR) Collapse
- Wall Street Preview
- Schwab NYSE:SCHW Eliminates Class-Action Waiver Requirement for Clients
Heffernan Capital Management
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.
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The Hot List
Enviro-Serv Inc (OTCMKTS:EVSV), Medical Marijuana Inc (OTCMKTS:MJNA)
Enviro-Serv Inc (OTCMKTS:EVSV)
EVSV had a stellar dy yesterday, ut it looks like it is just the begining of big things, good …