Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
Paul Ebeling on Wall Street
More focus on The Hill this week.
The US Fed spoke, QE is here to stay until the Fed sees 6.5% unemployment as its signal to tighten, for now stimulus is with us in Spades.
The Fed’s focus is on employment, that is above and beyond its mandated focus on price stability and maximized growth. It has added a 3rd leg, unemployment.
The stage is set: open-ended QE aka QE-Infinity, coupled with a huge deficit and no economic growth worth noting.
The Key factors are that the Fiscal Cliff, new regulations from the Administration, and how all of that impacts growth prospects. Now the US market faces the same challenges of the past few months, just closer in now.
We have to now go back and look at the technical picture to see how the market is interpreting the events.
At this time the indices are testing the 2nd run off the November low, standing at a crucial mark of support where they either decide to bounce on into Christmas and make this a true Holiday rally spanning both Thanksgiving and Christmas or head lower in a move like what happened post-QE-3, rollover.
The market leaders are mostly holding on, and are in position to bounce.
I see no alarming technical indicators issues that are cause for alarm in here.
Having said that, the post QE-3 test was nominal, and then after a week the bottom dropped. So, I the like the action set up now, but vigilance is the “word” and if the leaders cannot bounce off the coming pullback, prudence says lighten up the upside as the Holiday rally slows its momentum.
Oh, and I forgot to say that although there is lots of economic date out this week, the focus will be on Capitol Hill and the Fiscal Cliff negotiations, and the mourning of the 28 who fell in the Newtown, CN school massacre, our prayer are with the families and friends of the fallen.
Red’s Bull and Bear Trade Alerts
Options Trading Alert: Silver Wheaton NYSE:SLW
Profile: Silver Wheaton Corp., a mining company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a silver streaming company worldwide. The company has 14 long-term silver purchase agreements and 2 long-term precious metal purchase agreements whereby it acquires silver and gold production from the counterparties located in Mexico, the United States, Greece, Sweden, Perú, Chile, Argentina, and Portugal. Silver Wheaton Corp. is HQ’d in Vancouver, BC, Canada.
During Wednesday’s trading session we saw SLW post a 90-day Call contracts record, as 4.4 Calls traded for each Put contract yielding a 0.23 Put/Call Ratio PCR.
Options are useful tools for predicting the movement of the underlying stock.
PCR statistics serve as useful indicators of investment sentiment, telling us what experienced investors are doing in preparation for a move of an underlying stock. And unusual volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move.
A high PCR suggests that the investor sentiment is Bearish and that investors are expecting the underlying stock price to decrease.
A low PCR implies that the investor sentiment is Bullish and that investors are expecting the underlying stock price to increase. Thus, unusual volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move.
Shares of Silver Wheaton finished Wednesday at 38.00, up $1.18 +3.20%.
The shares of SLW had an intra-day low of 37.08 and high of 38.42.
The stock’s 52 wk trading range is 22.94–41.30
SLW is trading above its 20-Day MA, below its 50-D MA and above its 200-D MA
Next Earnings Date: 3 March 2013
Analyst Recommendation: Buy
1 Yr Price Earnings Estimate: 48.29
Week Month Quarter Half Year Year
+ 1.77 % -8.66 % +2.73 % +37.59 % +13.26 %
|Neutral (-0.03)||Neutral (-0.14)||Neutral (0.15)||Neutral (-0.08)|
Recent CandleStick Analysis Neutral
|up||12 Dec 2012||36.98 to 37.08|
|up||10 Dec 2012||35.86 to 36.05|
|up||8 Aug 2012||28.8 to 28.89|
|Support and Resistance|
|VBu=Very Bullish, Bu=Bullish
Be=Bearish, VBe=Very Bearish
Disclaimer: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or for results obtained from the use of this information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in Good Faith, are subject to change without notice. Before acting on any information contained on the website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.
Re-cap of the US Markets for the Week ended 14 December 2012
US Stocks: Wall St Declines, Apple, F-Cliff Talks Weigh
US stocks fell, extending Thursday’s fall, as a slump in Apple NASDAQ:AAPL Inc. and the federal budget stalemate offset an increase in industrial production and data showing China’s manufacturing may expand at a faster pace.
9 of the 10 industries in the S&P 500 retreated as technology, the largest group, led the losses. US President Barack and Republican House Speaker John Boehner remained deadlocked Thursday during their 3rd White House meeting on next year’s budget.
In China, the December preliminary reading was 50.9 for a purchasing managers’ index released by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics, beating estimates.
Industrial production in the US rose in November by the most in 2 yrs.
For the NAS, Friday’s action marked the 2nd losing week running.
On the Week: the DJIA slipped 0.2%, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the NAS declined 0.2%.
On the Day: DJIA 13135.01-35.71 (-0.27%) NAS 2971.33-20.83 (-0.70%) S&P 500 1413.58-5.87 (-0.41%)
Volume and Breadth: Volume was roughly 5.8-B shares traded on the NYSE, the NAS and the NYSEArca, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.52-B. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a ratio of about 8 to 7. On the NAS, decliners over advancers, with 1,241 stocks falling and 1,196 shares rising.
Strong: Materials, Industrials, Consumer Staples
Weak: Technology, Energy
The technology sector was the biggest laggard due to under performance from Apple and its suppliers. Earlier, UBS NYSE:UBS lowered its price target for AAPL to 700 from 780 due to an expected decline in iPhone and iPad shipments. AAPL shares finished – 3.8% on the day the iPhone 5 began selling in China.
Implied volatility used to gauge option prices for 3-month contracts closest to Apple’s shares was 2.18 times more than the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund last week, the highest level since September 2008, according to data compiled. Apple shares have fallen 25% to 529.69 since a record high in September.
The options trading is a reflection of market participants being a little bit more skeptical of Apple’s story going forward. The market is questioning what is next on the innovation side and how it is going to protect the margins.
Best Buy fell 15% to 12.05. Mr. Schulze can now make a proposal to buy the company from 1 February through 28 February, Best Buy said today in a statement. The company agreed that it was in the best interest of shareholders to let Schulze and his partners include results from the holiday season in their due diligence review, the retailer said.
Smith & Wesson NASDAQ:SWHC fell 4.3% to 9.13, and Sturm Ruger & Co. NYSE:RGR fell 4.5% to 45.57. President Obama said the Connecticut shooting, the most deadly in a string of mass killings this year, shows the nation must take “meaningful action” to stem such violence, 26 people, including 20 children, died when a gunman walked into a Newtown, Connecticut, elementary school and opened fire this morning.
Schlumberger Ltd. declined 5% to 68.91. The world’s largest oilfield-services provider said it expects earnings per share to fall because of delays and slowing activity in its 2 largest regional units.
Raw-material producers were the only group among 10 in the S&P 500 to gain as the S&P GSCI gauge of 24 commodities added 0.9% on bets that demand will increase in China.
US Steel NYSE:X rose 6.8% to 23.85. Alcoa NYSE:AA increased 1.8% to $8.74.
Adobe Systems Inc. NASDAQ:ADBE rose 5.7% to 37.56 after the software company reported F-Q-4 sales and profit that topped analysts’ estimates as customers embraced its flagship Creative Suite.
Boston Scientific Corp. NYSE:BSX gained 0.7% to 5.67. The seller of drug-coated stents was raised to overweight from underweight at Barclays Plc NYSE:BCS. The share-price target estimate is 7.00.
US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis
|14 Dec 2012||QQQ||64.69||Neutral (-0.19)||64.15||64.69|
|14 Dec 2012||DIA||131.46||Neutral (0.01)||130.71||132.09|
|14 Dec 2012||SPY||142.11||Neutral (0.15)||141.55||142.85|
Monday, December Empire Manufacturing Index will be reported at 8:30 EST and October net long-term TIC flows will be released at 9:00 EDT.
This Week on the Economic Front in the USA
Monday, 17 December
Empire Manufacturing, December (8:30a): 2.0 expected, -5.2 past
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, October (9:00a): $3.3-B past
Tuesday, 18 December
Current Account Imbalance, Q-3 (8:30a): -$103.6-B expected, -$117.4-B past
NAHB Housing Market, December (10:00a): 47 expected, 46 past
Wednesday, 19 December
MBA Mortgage Index, 12/15 (7:00a): 6.2% past
Housing Starts, November (8:30a): 873-K expected, 894-K past
Building Permits, November (8:30a): 876-K expected, 866-K past
Crude Oil Inventories, 12/15 (10:30a): 0.843-M past
Thursday, 20 December
Initial Claims, 12/15 (8:30a): 345-K expected, 343-K past
Continuing Claims, 12/08 (8:30a): 3192-K expected, 3198-K past
GDP – 3rd Estimate, Q-3 (8:30a): 2.7% expected, 2.7% past
GDP Deflator – 3rd Est., Q-3 (8:30a): 2.7% expected, 2.7% past
Existing Home Sales, November (10:00a): 4.90-M expected, 4.79-M past
Philadelphia Fed, December (10:00a): 1.0 expected, -10.7 past
Leading Indicators, November (10:00a): -0.2% expected, 0.2% past
FHFA Housing Price Index, October (10:00a): 0.2% past
Nat Gas Inventories, 12/15 (10:30a): 2 past
Friday, 21 December
Personal Income, November (8:30a): 0.3% expected, 0.0% past
Personal Spending, November (8:30a): 0.3% expected, -0.2% past
PCE Prices – Core, November (8:30a): 0.1% expected, 0.1% past
Durable Orders, November (8:30a): 0.2% expected, 0.5% past, revised from 0.0%
Durable Orders -ex Transports, November (8:30a): -0.4% expected, 1.8% past, revised from 1.5%
Michigan Sentiment – Final, December (9:55a): 74.0 expected, 74.5 past
This Week on the Earnings Front in the USA
Earnings Season has wound down
The notable companies covered by LTN are scheduled to report their earnings this week.
FedEx NYSE:FDX 90.28, +0.58, General Mills NYSE:GIS 41.36, -0.12, Micron NYSE:MU 6.83, +0.17, Nike NYSE:NKE 97.15, -0.18, and Oracle NASDAQ:ORCL 31.91, +0.30 are names that will be in focus this week.
After Tuesday’s close: Oracle is expected to announce EPS of 0.61 on $9.02-B in revenue.
Wednesday afternoon, bellwether FedEx will report, and the consensus is EPS of 1.41 on revenue of $10.82-B.
For the complete list go to: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20121217.html
The Most Asked Question last Week
The Big Q: Red, is Uranium still a key energy component?
The Big A: Some facts about Uranium requirements going forward
We read and hear a lot of misinformation in the mainstream media about nuclear energy and its use worldwide.
Many countries expect to be forced to use more nuclear power in their systems, that no matter what you may read or hear.
It is basic economics, and inevitable.
Japan is now pursuing new sources of Uranium, and it is Uranium that is the fuel for nuclear plants.
Analysts in the sector are saying Uranium supplies are looking tight in the face of potentially large new demand.
They are forecasting strong growth in nuclear power centers on China, India, and Russia. The populations of these nations are huge, and are among the lowest consumers of electric power in the world.
According to British Petroleum’s “Energy Outlook 2030″ NYSE:BP study, the countries will increase their use of nuclear power 7.8% per year through Y 2030.
That means the nuclear power demand from those countries will more than double by Y 2020 and will grow 4 times that by Y 2030.
Putting that into a global perspective; the world has 436 active nuclear reactors today with a total capacity of 374 gigawatts (GW). Another 62 reactors are under construction and will add 63 GW of capacity.
Each gigawatt of increased capacity requires about 200 metric tons of Uranium per year. And the 1st fueling for new reactors require between 400 to 600 metric tons of Uranium, according to the World Nuclear Organization.
So, the 62 new plants will need a minimum of 25,000 metric tons of Uranium in their 1st yr of production and 12,400 metric tons per year after and ongoing.
According to the World Nuclear Organization, total demand for uranium will hit 67,990 metric tons in Y 2012. The 62 plants under construction will raise that 18%.
Food for thought, there are another 484 reactors on order, planned, or proposed.
China alone accounts for 171 of those planned reactors, India for 57 and Russia for 44.
These potential reactors represent 542 GW of electric power. When those reactors are built, they will more than double the world’s existing nuclear facilities.
On the Uranium supply side the supply is likely not to easily meet demand, what with the economic uncertainty, the huge capital costs, and negative public sentiment toward nuclear power.
The highest-profile supply problem was BHP Billiton’s NYSE:BHP decision to delay its Olympic Dam mine expansion, taking 14,545 metric tons of Uranium per year out of the supply chain. Plus, the Kazakhstan government shelved about 4,500 metric tons of new projects recently.
Some other notable delayed/shelved projects…
1. Areva’s Trekkopje, 3,600 metric tons per year put on hold
2. Areva’s Imouaren, 5,000 metric tons per year put on hold
3 Cameco’s Double U, reduced by 1,800 metric tons per year
That is about 29,550 metric tons of Uranium per year of expected supply has been curtailed. This could create a substantial supply squeeze over the next few years.
This is now basic economics 101, when supplies are low and demand is high, prices will rise.
And that most often means gains can be had when Uranium prices enter the next Boom. Stay tuned…
PS: We here at LTN are focused on natural resources, agriculture, the Singapore $, and quality stocks that offer steady returns and high dividends, we call them Aristocrat Stocks (and the events that shape the market prices) and profile them weekly on www.livetradingnews.com . They are not priced to make investors a fortune, but they are priced to give approximately 4 to 5% real return on capital, that beat the bank deposit rates soundly and risk is avoided. Pay attention and Cheer up.
Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!
Red’s Edge and in the Trenches
Reflect and Resolve to Make Money
The area that I believe to be of great importance to those of us who have a keen interest in trading markets is how to better Play the Game of trading and investing.
The 1st thing to do, IMO, is to reflect on what was done last year and how well it was done. I believe it will be the common denominator that some stuff was done well and some not so well. That said it would be a good plan to work to be better at what was not done so well in this New Year.
Looking into the past may be helpful to put together Resolutions that will bring positive changes that bode well for future action in the markets, in order to set up for continuing success.
The common areas that most all traders/players work on to improve in order to continuously post good Percentage and Money records are:
1. Formulate a Trading Plan for their business; this is a business, though many of refer to it as a Game.
2. Follow and fine-tune the Trading Plan along the way.
3. Learn to Cut Losses
4. Stop Cutting Profits
5. Manage your money; remember Your Money and Your Responsibility.
6. Education, Education and more Education, Knowledge is Power.
7. Last but not least are; never enter a position without a Way Out (aka Exit Strategy)
Lumped into 1 Key Trader/Player Resolution and followed will likely lead to improved trading results.
That said, always strive to do your best, use the best tools, be patient with yourself and be happy.
Each new day comes with new opportunities, challenges, and changes.
All the best,
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
PS: if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you “tick”; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE
To succeed in trading, a Player needs Knowledge; Gain it and use it wisely
The Key to Stock Market Understanding
We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades.
Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely.
So, that being said, and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business?
Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing.
Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success.
Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.
So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading.
You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless.
That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask.
So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward?
Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be.
Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game.
For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.
Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life.
In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so.
In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the “Plan” throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.
Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!
Again, the Reminder on Risk
Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.
When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the “Greed” factor; then come the Risk factors that give rise to the Fear factor in trading.
Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk.
Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them
One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even.
It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet.
When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero.
You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks?
Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders.
In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital.
Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires.
To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible.
You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance…
Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify.
The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction.
All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win.
Again, think Education First.
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My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom
Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby
Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!
Red’s Favorite Quote for this Week. “Am I living in a country where roughly 50% of the population is just plain dumb?” — US Senator Jim DeMint (Rep. SC)
See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7
In View: Chance of a US Recession in Y 2013
I do not think there is a 100% chance of a recession in the new year, but I do believe it will be close.
Japan is in a recession, the EU is in recession, it is hard to believe that the USA will come through this in the Green.
Germany’s economy is slowing; it has been the economy that has kept other nations afloat. Its central bank predicts a just .4% growth for Y 2013.
The nation now thought to pick up the slack in demand for American exports, as a result of the recessions in the EU and Japan is China.
Last Monday, China’s Customs Bureau reported that the nation’s imports rose just 2% in November, declining from a 2.4% increase in October.
US Fed Chairman Bernanke thinks that US unemployment will remain high until mid-Y 2015. Even then, it may still be at 6.5%.
The talk of continued recovery in the USA may just be wishful thinking; most forecasters think the USA will be in a growth mode, albeit a low growth mode. Japan and Europe have nothing to do with us is the implication.
I do not see a boom coming in the US, and I see no consensus for the reduction of the US federal deficit. Stay tuned…
EU Watch: Tax evasion costs Greece 5% of GDP
Greece could generate budget revenues amounting to 5% of its national output annually if it reforms tax collection and clamps down on tax cheats, the EU tax chief told a Greek newspaper.
Athens plans reforms next year to combat tax evasion as it works to shore up public finances and achieve a primary budget surplus, both necessary to continue receiving bailout aid from international lenders.
The EuroZone agreed Thursday to provide nearly EUR 50-B (US$64-B) in long-delayed aid to Greece, averting a major default and securing its survival in the EuroZone after months of doubt and political wrangling.
Experts estimate that a shadow economy existing outside Greece’s tax system amounted to more than 25% of annual output in Y 2011, the highest level in the European Union.
It is common in the country for small business owners to under-report sales and pay lower value-added tax. The self-employed such as plumbers and electricians often get paid in cash, avoiding receipts.
“According to estimates at the Commission, out of the EUR 53-B in overdue) taxes owed to the Greek state, just 15 to 20% could be collected,” EU tax commissioner Algirdas Semeta told newspaper Kathimerini in an interview.
He said the country’s tax system needed an overhaul with simple and easily applicable rules.
A bill introduced to boost state revenues is due to scrap many tax exemptions and raise tax rates on property, companies and households with above-average income. The government also plans a tax on capital gains on stocks traded on the Athens stock exchange.
The measures are expected to increase tax revenues by about EUR 2.5-B in Ys 2013-2014.
.ASEAN Watch: EU, Singapore agree on Free-Trade pact
The EU to pursue similar agreements with other Southeast Asian nations
The European Union and Singapore completed talks on a free-trade pact, in a deal to make it easier for European auto makers and financial institutions to do business with and in the Asian City-state.
Countries around the world are increasingly seeking to lower barriers with their trade partners, in an attempt to boost their economies amid subdued global demand.
Earlier this year, China, Japan and South Korea agreed to formally launch trade negotiations, and a free-trade agreement between the EU and Korea came into effect in July last year.
A draft agreement between the EU and Singapore is expected to be signed in the Spring, once both sides have sought approval for the deal from their respective parliaments, the EU said Sunday. It added that investment talks, which started later than the main discussions will continue, and hopefully conclude by the Summer.
Singapore’s trade ministry described the agreement as “broad-based” and “comprehensive,” encompassing tariff-free access for goods, greater access to services markets, intellectual property, competition policy, technical barriers to trade, government procurement and sustainable development.
EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht, who held discussions Sunday with Minister of Trade and Industry Lim Hng Kiang in the Asian City-state, said he hoped that the pact would open the way to similar agreements with other countries in the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations the EU’s 3rd largest trading partner outside of Europe.
“Singapore is a dynamic market for EU companies and is a vital hub for doing business across Southeast Asia. This agreement is Key to unlocking the gateway to the region and can be a catalyst for growth for EU exporters,” Mr. De Gucht said in a statement.
The EU said that Singapore had agreed to tackle technical barriers in sectors including cars, electronics and renewable-energy equipment, which would make it easier for European goods to be sold in Singapore.
Under the agreement, the EU will remove tariffs on all imports from Singapore over 5 yrs; Singapore will immediately allow duty-free access for all imports from the EU, Singapore’s trade ministry said Sunday. The EU is the top destination for Singapore’s exports.
The EU and Singapore will extensively guarantee access to each others’ services markets, including in the fields of environmental services, computer and related services, professional and business services, financial services and maritime-transport services, it added
In the area of financial services, the EU said it obtained commitments which were “at least on a par” with the US’ free trade agreement with Singapore.
“Singapore is confident that the trade pact will further enhance our bilateral economic relations, and pave the way for a region-to-region trade deal between the EU and Asean,” Mr. Lim said in a statement.
the Singaporean market, such as Bordeaux wine or Parma ham,” the EU said. The pact will also result in the elimination of several nontariff measures, improving access for exporters of pharmaceuticals and electronics, and increase access to government procurement opportunities, Singapore’s trade ministry said.
Singaporean exporters of electronics, pharmaceuticals, chemicals and processed food products will particularly benefit from the removal of EU import tariffs, it added.
BRICS Watch: China targets quality, efficient growth in Y 2013
Chinese authorities said Sunday that its focus is on quality and efficiency of economic growth for Y 2013, demonstrating their determination to ensure sustainable and healthy economic development after the previous pursuit of fast-track growth.
A statement issued after the closure of central economic work conference, which set the tone for economic policymaking next year, said “enhancing quality and efficiency of economic growth” will be a “central task.”
The two-day conference offered a first glimpse into economic policies eyed by the new top leaders of the Communist Party of China, who decided to maintain a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy in Y 2013 as they expect global economy to maintain a low growth.
“The global economy has entered a period of profound transition and correction from a period of fast growth in the pre-crisis years,” the statement said, warning of rising protectionism and increasing pressure from potential inflation and asset bubbles.
Easing measures, included the latest round of quantitative easing in the Unites States and monetary easing in other economies, have again pushed up global inflationary pressure.
Yao Jingyuan, a researcher from the Councilor’s Office of the State Council, or China’s cabinet, said the most prominent problem with the Chinese economy is no longer growth rate but its quality and efficiency, which will stay unsteady and unsustainable if these issues are not solved.
Due to flagging exports and domestic efforts to contain runaway property prices, China’s annual economic growth slipped to 7.4% in Q-3 this year, slowing for 7 Quarters running.
To boost quality growth, the statement said expanding domestic demand will be a strategic basis for China’s development next year.
New growth points should be created in domestic consumption, which will serve as both a strong pulling power and foundation for the economy’s sustained and healthy development, it said.
The country has been trying to restructure national economy to wean off its reliance on exports for growth, as its main trade partners like the EU and the United States are embroiled in debt crisis.
The meeting especially attached significant importance to urbanization, which has been considered as a main driver for domestic demand and will be actively and steadily pushed forward in Y 2013, said the statement.
The country will center its efforts on improving the quality of urbanization, incorporating the concept of ecological civilization in the urbanization process to build intelligent, green and low-carbon cities, it said.
“Advancing urbanization will boost both investment and consumption, which plays a significant role in promoting China’s sustained and steady growth,” said Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communication.
The country’s urban population, which outnumbered that of rural areas for the 1st time at the end of last year, is expected to account for 70% of the total population by Y 2030, according to a World Bank forecast.
To improve people’s well-being, the statement said the country will work to boost employment, reinforce social security networks, and step up construction of low-income housing and renovation of run-down areas.
Official data showed China created 10.24-M new jobs in urban areas in the 1st 9 months of the year, exceeding the annual target of 9-M for this year.
China will continue its property market control policies next year, the statement said.
The high real estate prices have been a significant source of public complaint in recent years, forcing the government to implement a string of policies like bans on third-home purchases and property tax trials to keep prices down.
The property market has shown warming signs in recent months, after the central bank earlier this year twice cut interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio to buoy the economy.
While seeking growth impetus from consumption, China will also look to boosting investment. The statement said the country will encourage both private and public investment on infrastructure projects that will not cause repetitive construction to set foundations for long-term growth.
China has earlier this year opened a number of state-run sectors such as transport and finance to private investors in a bid to increase the economy’s efficiency.
Aware of industry overcapacity, the statement called for industrial restructuring through means like innovations and branding to maintain high-quality development.
The statement said the nation will stabilize and increase its share of world markets while boosting imports to support the country’s economic restructuring and make its international payment more balanced.
Official data showed exports slowed more than expected in November. In the 1st 11 months, foreign trade grew 5.8% Y-Y, well below the government target of 10% for this year.
The meeting has also agreed that China will “properly expand the amount of social financing to maintain a moderate increase in loan issuances” and keep the Yuan’s exchange rate “basically stable” next year, according to the statement.
While vowing to fully deepen economic reforms and opening-up, the meeting called for “greater political courage and wisdom” to carry out reforms.
In-depth research and studies should be done to improve the top-level design and general plan for the reforms, and a clear overall scheme, road map and timetable should be made, the statement said.
Most economists have been putting their forecasts for China’s Y 2012 growth under 8% but slightly above the 7.5% government target set in March.
Latest figures showed that the country’s industrial output has continued to pick up, and retail sales and fixed-asset investment have maintained strong growth.
India vows to put its economy back on the tracks
Saturday India reiterated its commitment to putting the country’s slowing economy back on track “to its trend growth rate of 8 to 9%”.
“The steps we have taken recently are only the beginning of the process to revive our economy and take it back to its trend growth rate of 8 to 9%,” Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said at a function in the national capital.
According to Indian government figures, the country’s economic growth has tanked to a 9-yr low at 6.5% in the financial Ys 2011-2012.
Though the global economy is witnessing a slowdown, Singh said: “I stand before you to reassure you that our government is committed to doing everything that is possible to alter the policy environment, accelerate economic growth and make the growth process socially and regionally more inclusive.”
The Prime Minister added: “We will speed up the disinvestment process which will also revive our equity markets.”
The Indian government recently introduced a series of economic reforms, like foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail sector, which it claims are aimed at reviving the economy.
Brazilian government popular despite slowing economy
Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s administration saw its approval rate remain at 62% in an opinion poll released Friday.
The rate, calculated by Ibope pollsters commissioned by the National Industry Confederation CNI, is the highest since the President took office in January 2011.
Also like the previous poll of its kind, conducted in September, the latest survey showed that 29% of Brazilians considered the Rousseff administration regular and 7% considered it bad or very bad.
The new poll also found that expectations for 2-H of the Rousseff administration remained positive, with 62% of interviewees believing the rest of Rousseff’s term would be good or very good.
According to the poll, Rousseff’s approval rating rose to 78 from 77% in September, and the public’s trust in her remained stable at 73%.
In Q-3 this year, Brazil’s GDP registered just 0.6% of growth. Yet Ibope noted that the impact of the low growth rate was mostly felt in the industry sector and had yet to fully affect the population.
The Brazilian population’s confidence in some government policies decreased compared to September. For example, the approval rate of the government’s inflation policies fell from 50 to 45%, and support for interest rate policies fell from 49 to 41%.
The poll surveyed 2,002 people from 142 municipalities throughout the country between 6 and 9 December
US Watch: Boehner Agrees to Tax Hikes for Entitlement Cuts
There is chatter on the Hill Sunday that signals movement in “Fiscal Cliff” talks.
The scuttlebutt is that House Speaker John Boehner proposed raising the top rate for earners making more than $1-M.
President Obama wants higher top rates for households earning more than $250,000 has not accepted the offer.
The proposal does indicate progress in talks that look like they are stalemated.
As part of a broad budget deal, Mr. Boehner seeks more spending cuts than Mr. Obama proposed, particularly in mandatory health care spending. Mr. Boehner asked for a long-term increase in eligibility age for Medicare and for lower costs-of-living adjustments for Social Security.
A Boehner aide would not comment on the report.
At the Movies with Monica Petrucci
Box Office Report: Peter Jackson’s ‘The Hobbit’ posts record $84.8-M weekend
The 3-D Fantasy-adventure opens to $138.2-M overseas for a worldwide total of $223-M; “Lincoln” and “Silver Linings Playbook” got a boost from Golden Globe nominations.
New Line and MGM’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey kicked off the Holiday Season, opening to $84.8-M, the Top 3-day opening of all time in North America for the month of December.
The 1st in Peter Jackson’s planned Trilogy, Hobbit opened to $138.2-M overseas for a worldwide total of $223-M. The movie came in ahead The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003, $125.9-M.
In North America, Will Smith’s I Am Legend previously held the record for best December opening with $77.2-M on the same weekend in Y 2007.
The Hobbit received an A CinemaScore from moviegoers.
Warner Bros. the owner of New Line is distributing the 3-D Fantasy-adventure, which could earn as much as 4 times its opening weekend gross through New Year’s Day, Christmas films can have especially strong multiples.
The Hobbit, based on JRR Tolkien’s Y 1937 novel and set 60 yrs before the events chronicled in The Lord of the Rings played older, with 58% of the audience over 25 yrs. Males made up 57% of those buying tickets, while younger moviegoers gave the epic an A+ CinemaScore.
Imax theaters made up the Top 10 locations for The Hobbit, with the 326 Giant-screen sites generating $10.1-M in ticket for a location average of $31,000. Imax theaters playing the film in the 48 frames-per-second format drew particularly strong numbers, averaging $44,000 per location.
Imax also saw big business overseas, where 126 locations turned in $5-M for a per screen average of $40,000 and setting a December record.
Overall, 49% of the opening-weekend domestic gross came from 3-D screens, including from all theaters that played the film in the higher frame rate.
Starring Martin Freeman as Bilbo Baggins and returning Ian McKellen in the role of the wizard Gandalf form Jackson’s Lord of the Rings films, Hobbit is the 1st in a planned Trilogy.
Elsewhere, awards contenders Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook both got a boost from their Golden Globe nominations.
In its 6th weekend, Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln dropped less than 19% to come in # 3 with weekend earnings of $7.2-M and putting its domestic total at $107.9-M. DreamWorks produced the film, while Disney has domestic distribution duties.
David O. Russell’s, Silver Linings dropped only 4% to come in at # 10 with $2.1-M from 371 theaters. The Weinstein Co. dramedy saw the lowest decline of any film in the Top 10 and will add more theaters on Christmas Day.
French film Rust and Bone, starring Marion Cotillard, also received a boost from its Golden Globe nom. From Sony Pictures Classics, the film grossed $56,040 as it upped its theater count to 6 for a location average of $9,340.
Fox Searchlight’s Hitchcock expanded its theater count to 561 but continues to struggle, despite a Globe acting nom for Helen Mirren. The film grossed just $1.1-M for a location average of $1,935.
The Metropolitan Opera’s The Met: Live in HD saw strong sales for Saturday’s live transmission of Verdi’s Aida, which grossed $2.6-M from 800 theaters domestically. Overseas, it was seen by 116,000 people 850 screens in 30 countries in Europe, 11 countries in Latin America, Russia, the Bahamas, Egypt, Israel, Jamaica, Morocco and Qatar. The series, now in its 7th season, is enjoying its best season to date.
The complete results for the weekend of 14-16 December at the North American Box Office:
Title, Weeks in Release/Theater Count, Studio, Three Day Weekend Total, Take
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, 1/4,045, New Line/MGM, $84.8-M.
2. Rise of the Guardians, 4/3,387, Paramount/DreamWorks Animation, $7.4-M, $71.4-M.
3. Lincoln, 6/2,285, DreamWorks/Disney, $7.2-M, $107.9-M.
4. Skyfall, 6/2,924, Sony/MGM, $7-M, $272.4-M.
5. Life of Pi, 4/2,548, Fox, $5.4-M, $69.6-M.
6. Twilight: Breaking Dawn — Part 2, 5/3, 02, Summit, $5.2-M, $276.9-M.
7. Wreck-It Ralph, 7/2,549, Disney, $3.3-M, $168.8-M.
8. Playing for Keeps, 2/2,840, FilmDistrict, $3.2-M, $10.8-M.
9. Red Dawn, 4/2,250, FilmDistrict/MGM, $2.4-M, $40.9-M.
10. Silver Linings Playbook, 5/371, The Weinstein Co., $2.1-M, $17-M.
Have some fun, see a movie this week.
All the best,
Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town
S&P 500 Support and Resistance
DJIA close: 13,135.01
13,297 the Apr 2012 high
13,331 the Aug 2012 high
13,653 the Sept 2012 high
13662 the Oct 2012 intra-day high
13,668 from the Dec 2007 high
13,692 from the Jun 2007 high
14,022 from the July 2007 high
The 50-Day EMA: 13,085
13,058 the May 2008 high
13,056 the Feb 2012 high
The 200-Day SMA 13,004
12,716 the Apr 2012 closing low
12,524 is support from the Summer of Y 2012
12,391 the Feb 2011 high
12,369 a low from May 2012
12,284 the Oct 2011 high
12,258 the Dec 2011 high
12,110 the Mar 2007 closing low
S&P 500 close: 1413.58
1425 from the Oct 2012 low
1427 the Aug 2012 high
1433 from the Aug 2007 closing lows
1440 from the Nov 2007 closing lows
1446 from the Sept 2012 high
1466 the Sept 2012 closing high
1471 the Oct 2012 intra-day high
1475 the Sept 2012 high
1499 from Jan 2008
1539 from Jun 2007
The 50-Day EMA: 1411
1408 from the Oct 2012 closing lows
1406 the early May 2012 high
1400 the Aug 2012 closing low
The 200-Day SMA: 1387
1378 the Feb 2012 high
1375 the early Jul 2012 high
1371 the May 2011 high
1363 the Jun 2012 high
1359 the Apr 2012 low
1357 the Jul 2011 high
NAS close: 2971.33
2988 the Jul 2012 high
The 200-Day SMA: 2989
The 50-Day EMA: 2989
2999 the bottom of the Aug 2012 consolidation range
3000 the Feb 2012 high
3019 the uptrend line from Y 2011
3024 a gap open point from May 2012
3026 from the Oct 2000 low
3042 from the May 2000 low
3076 the late Apr 2012 high
3090 the mid-Mar 2012 interim high
3037 is the Oct 2012 low
3101 the Aug 2012 high
3134 the Mar 2012 high
3171 the Oct 2012 intra-day high
3197 the Sept 2012 high
3227 the Apr 2000 intra-day low
3401 the May 2000 closing low
2962 the Apr 2012 low
2950 the mid-Apr 2012 closing low
2942 the mid-Jun 2012 high
2900 the Mar 2012 intra-day low
2858 the late Jul 2011 high
2847 the mid-May 2012 low
2838 from the July 2012 lows
US Major Market Sentiment, the Bulls Vs the Bears
VIX: 17; +0.44
VXN: 20.19; +0.72
VXO: 17.46; +0.75
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; +0.05
Bulls Vs Bears
The Bulls are at 45.7% Vs 43.6%. The Bulls are back to where they were 2 months, after the September high. They got close to 35% on the last decline, 35% is the mark that signals Bullishness, they hit 34% in early June and the rally began.
For your reference: again 35% is the mark suggesting Bullishness, and to be really Bearish it needs to get up to the 60-65% mark.
The Bears are at 23.4% Vs 25.5%. The Bears are fading faster than the Bulls are rising, strange given the Fiscal Cliff issues. The Bears, like the Bulls at the mark hit about 2 months ago, like the Bulls. On the last move the Bears did not tap 35% that might have been bullish.
For your reference: 35% and above is the mark that is a good Northside signal. Bearishness hit a 5 y high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 sent Bearish sentiment to its highest level since Y 1995, extreme negative sentiment for sure.
NB: Watching the VIX. It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The VIX measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as “the options market’s gauge of investor fear.” Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there’s excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 19**The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money.
***The VXO is the ticker created to track the “original VIX” that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.
Focus on Fx: the EUR/USD Pair; Breaking above Inverted Head & Shoulders Neckline
After testing briefly below the 1.29 handle, EUR/USD rallied impressively +2.11% since last Sundays open.
After breaking back above the longer-term trend line cited 2 wks ago it has become apparent the EUR was headed higher.
After taking out the Neckline of an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern around 1.3125 early Friday, the EUR rallied to close at its highest level since early May. A daily close above the inverted H&S neckline signifies another push higher; it may be prudent to wait for daily RSI to confirm this neckline break.
The EUR/USD is faced with a few Key technical resistance marks between 1.3150/80:
1. October 2011 low
2. 38.2% retracement using Y 2011 high and Y 2012 low
3. September Y 2012 high
4. 78.6% retracement, using the Y 2012 high and low
We should see a break above the Key resistance mark, at 1.3400-3520 could be close in here
1.100 and 200-wk SMAs
2. 50% Fibo retracement
3. Top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud
4. the Y 2012 high
If this Bullish technical setup continues into early this week, it would trigger the Inverted Head & Shoulder measured move objective of 1.3575/95.
Focus on Precious Metals and Energy
Charts by: Omega Research
The Overall Fundamentals
The precious metals complex rose just after the US Fed announced expansion of QE-3 last Wednesday, the rise was short-lived, Gold and Silver reversed the gain Thursday. The Fed’s move of expanding the size of asset purchases by US$45-B as Operation Twist expires by the end of the month was anticipated and was likely priced to the market.
Participants are concerned about the deadlock over the Fiscal Cliff deal. If a resolution is found, any tax hike affects economic growth. So, the market may be expecting a low-growth US economy in the years to come.
Gold traded at the lower end of its recent trading range 1700-1750 last week. The above noted concerns should continue into 2013, and that means that the precious Yellow metal will likely continue come under pressure near-term.
The EIA, IEA and OPEC released their latest forecasts on the global Crude Oil demand outlook for Y 2013.
The IEA’s forecasts continued to be the highest among the 3.
The Paris-based agency raised global Crude Oil demand forecasts to 90-M bpd and 90.5-M bpd for Y 2012 and Y 2013, +70-K bpd and +110-K bpd from November’s estimates respectively. The IEA’s Y 2013 forecasts were made based on IMF’s GDP projection of +3.6%. Should global economic outlook deteriorate markedly, it would affect the oil demand/supply balance and in turns weaken Crude Oil prices.
The IEA also revised its non-OPEC forecast, by +75-K bpd, to 54.2-M bpd for Y 2013. This represents a 0.9-M bpd gain from Y 2012. The increase in non-OPEC supply was driven by return of Crude Oil production form South Sudan, new supply in Brazil and rising supply in the US.
Another issue is the US Crude Oil supply. The IEA raised both its forecast for Ys 2012 and 2013 byu +80-K bpd, making the annual change from Y 2012 unchanged at 570-K bpd.
For the EIA, the annual change was revised to +670-K bpd from 520-K bpd projected in November.
OPEC maintained its annual change estimate at 400-K bpd.
The DOE/EIA reported that US Nat Gas storage added +2 bcf to 3806 bcf in the week ended 7 December.
Stocks were +48 bcf higher than the same period last year and +283 bcf above the 5-yr average of 3 523 bcf.
Baker Hughes NYSE:BHI reported that the number of Nat Gas rigs fell -1 unit to 416 in the week ended 14 December.
Oil rigs decreased -1 unit to 1 381 and Miscellaneous rigs added +1 unit and the total number of rigs fell -1 unit to 1 799.
Directionally oriented combined oil, gas, and miscellaneous rigs dropped -1 unit to 190 units while horizontal rigs added +2 units to 1 105 and vertical rigs slid -2 units to 504 during the week
The Overall Technicals
Comex Gold (GC)
My outlook for Gold is unchanged; the rebound from 1672.5 is corrective and should have finished at 1755.0.
Near term outlook is mildly Bearish as long as 1725 resistance holds and deeper fall should go toward support at 1672.5.
A clear break there will extend the fall fro, 1798.1 for 61.8% Fibo retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1630.4.
A break above resistance at 1725 will bring on another rise but I will be looking for reversal signal as it approaches the Key resistance at 1798.1.
The Big Picture: the price action from the high at 1923.7 is seen as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that this consolidation is finished, and more range trading is likely. Any Southside form any falling leg should be contained by the support zone at 1478.3/1577.4, and bring on a rebound. But, a break of the resistance zone at 1792.7/1804.4 augurs that the long term up trend is resuming for a new high above 1923.70.
The Long Term Picture: the support at 1478.3 is intact, so there is no change in my long term Bullish outlook for Gold. Some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I look for a break above the 2000 psych mark sooner or later. Stay tuned…
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Silver (SI)
There is no change in my outlook for Silver. A short term top is formed at 34.42 IMO. So, the near term outlook is Bearish as long as the resistance at 33.875 holds, this current decline targets a test of the support at 30.65 first. A clear break there augurs a deeper fall to 61.8% Fibo retracement of 26.105 to 34.42 at 29.673 and lower.
The Big Picture: as long as the resistance at 37.58 holds, the price action from 26.105 is seen as a consolidation pattern. Meaning that the down trend from 49.82 high is not over, and an new low below 26.105 is favored. But, a clear break of the resistance at 37.58 dampens this Bearish POV, and could bring on a strong rise back to the high at 49.82 and above.
The Long Term Picture: the big Q remains, is 49.82 is a medium term or long term Top? With 61.8% Fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 intact, price actions from 49.82 could eventually turn out to be a consolidation. And, a break of the resistance at 37.58 will increase odds for a new high above 49.82. Stay tuned…
Comex Silver Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude Oil’s consolidative trading from 84.05 extended last week. More sideway trading is seen in near term and another recovery cannot be ruled out. I expect the Northside to be limited by 50% Fibo retracement of 100.42 to 84.05 at 92.24.
On the downside: a break of 84.05 will resume the decline from 100.42 and target the support at 77.28 IMO.
The Big Picture, this development suggests that price actions from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. The fall from 100.42 is likely the 5th and the last leg of such consolidation. That said any Southside should be contained above 77.28 and bring on a breakout to the Northside eventually. A break of 110.55 will suggest that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for a move above 114.83.
The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with the 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it is the 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern. Crude Oil could make another high above 114.83; I still see strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned…
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
LTN Hot List
The LTN “Hot List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.
American Estates Management Company (PK: AEMC) provides mining and mineral processing engineering services; geological and environmental services; marketing, project development, project management, and mineral resource management services. American Estates Management Company markets mineral and metal products and equity in mineral and metal projects, and partners in the development of mineral assets and metal production facilities. American Estates Management Company has developed business activity in North America, South America and Asia.
Marketing Mineral Real Estate & Mineral Resources
Mineral Lease & Mineral Resource Sale Negotiation
Mineral Lease Management
Monitor Exploration & Mining Activity
Verify Royalty Payments
Develop Real Estate & Mineral Resource Databases, Estimates & Maps
Valuation of Mineral Real Estate & Mineral Resources
Target Price: 0.50
Trai Thien USA Inc (PINK: TRTH)
Trai Thien USA is a fast-growing Vietnam-based dry bulk shipping company operating a 21,990 DWT fleet comprised of six geared bulk vessels specializing in providing ocean transportation services for raw material input items such as coal, ore, grain, lumber, cement, steel and fertilizer throughout the Southeast Asia region.
After China, the primary sources of future bulk demand are India, Brazil and Vietnam. The region contains three of the four global BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), seen by economists as the future growth leaders in the world economy.
The Asia Pacific region accounts for 60% of the world’s population and almost 70% of world sea-borne trade in bulk commodities.
In order to meet anticipated continued growth in demand from an expanding base of overseas and domestic Vietnamese customers, as well as to expand the geographic regions that it can service to include potentially more profitable routes in East and South Asia.
The Company’s Vietnam-based operations are located in Ho Chi Minh City, which together with the surrounding areas, accounts for more than seventy percent of Vietnam’s total annual cargo traffic.
Pink Sheets: TRTH
Current Price: 0.10
Current PE: 4.0
Revenue Growth: 148%
1 yr Target Price: 1.00
Analysts Rating: Strong Buy
Red’s Bull Trade Alerts and Option’s Alerts are suitable for Big Cap portfolios
Silver Wheaton NYSE:SLW
See them daily at www.liveradingnews.com
Red’s Rules to always play by…
Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”.
Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money)
Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing.
There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10’s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO).
The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge.
As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street’s buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting.
Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they sell for USUS$5 or less a share.
And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.
Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains.
Do not think get rich – think get rich slowly; it works.
Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress.
You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free.
Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled.
Again, think “get rich steady” and not “get rich quick” and think Education!
The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80′s. It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives.
Heffernan Capital Management
Business Development Director – Private Client Group,
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408
Fax: +65 6329 9699
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.
Portfolio Management Services
Protect against inflation and currency shifts.
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Managing investments in equities requires time,
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Portfolio Management Services
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The Hot List
Enviro-Serv Inc (OTCMKTS:EVSV), Medical Marijuana Inc (OTCMKTS:MJNA)
Enviro-Serv Inc (OTCMKTS:EVSV)
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