It seem that every week there is no lack of economic data, and this week is not different, and lately it has been just lukewarm at best. But it is interesting to note that the major multinationals in the S&P 500 lineup have just over US$1-T in their collective bank accounts, a record amount…

What I am looking for this week is a catalyst for this market to extend the rally off of the relief bounce we saw last week, and then a run to the November 2010 low or to the neck line of the S&P 500 head and shoulder pattern in the 1,260 Zone. I believe the market it set up for that kind of action in here aka, the rally continues off of the relief bounce, and at the same time be prepared for some Southside action if the technicals give a signal that the markets wants to test last week’s lows again.

And the Winners, they look like they want to continue to run North in here, but be nimble just in case the bounce is just a bounce and the Winners run out of momentum. More money is made faster on Southside moves than on the Northside action. Watch for the action at the 10-Day MA, the November 2010 and the S&P 500 neckline at 1,260ish. Watch Monday for the moves to the Key resistance marks below.

DJIA: The 10-Day EMA: 11,38911,452 (the November 2010 high)

S&P 500: The 10-Day EMA:1196

NAS: The 10-Day EMA: 2540

Vol. 08152011 # 1 Copyright   15 August 2011                           Date Line: Singapore  

The Red Roadmaster™

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Editor/Compiler/Analyst/Commentator

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Summer Vacation Edition # 9

15 August 2011 6.00 am US EDT

Dear Reader,

You can read my Market Reports, and Up to Date International News daily and weekly on www.livetradingnews.com , www.paulebeling.com , and www.pinnacledigest.com as I round up relevant global market news and technical analysis up-dated daily. + You can see many of my articles and commentary on:

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Red’s Bull and Bear Trade Alerts

Red’s Bull Trade Alert Up-date: CF, HK and TNH make 52 wk highs on Friday

See them daily at www.livetradingnews.com

Re-cap of the US Markets for the Week ended 12 August 2011

Red’s Bull Trader Alert: Sharp losses over the last few weeks sent the S&P 500 South causing it to close below its 200-Day Moving Average, forming a Death Cross pattern, but since Y 1970 the stock market has usually stabilized, and trended higher following the formation of the Death Cross.

Many players are now wondering if the DC is a point of stabilization now formed now, and that stocks have finally booked back-to-back gains for the 1st time in 3 wks, 3 wks that resulted in sequential weekly losses of 3.9%, 7.2%, and 1.7% each.

US retail sales posted the biggest gains in 4 months in July, which helped boost the buying

Analysts at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said in a note the US equities market is fairly priced for a recession. This suggests any indication to even sluggish growth could boost stocks.

US stocks posted gains again Friday giving the market its 1st 2 day advance in 3 wks.

On the Week: the DJIA fell 1.5% and the NAS declined 1%,,and the S&P 500 fell 11 of the past 15 days, dropping 12.4% in 3 wks.

On the Day:

DJIA	11,269.00	125.71	1.13%	08/12
S&P 500	1,178.81	6.17	0.53%	08/12
NAS	2,507.98	15.30	0.61%	08/12

After Thursday’s session rise, the market’s 2nd best 1-session rise since March of Y 2009, broad market traded in triple digits for most of the day.

Big gains by Europe’s exchanges provided positive sentiment. Strength there came on news that France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium, and likely Germany too, announced Short Selling bans intended to dampen volatility in the EU.

Word also came out that leaders of France and Germany will meet next week to discuss the EuroZone’s tight fiscal and financial conditions.

Early players were influenced by news that total retail sales and sales less autos increased by 0.5% during July. The consensus among economists polled had called for increases of 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. June numbers were revised upward to reflect respective increases of 0.3% and 0.2%.

The US stock market’s early advance was paused a bit by the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Survey for August from the University of Michigan. On average, economists polled expected the Survey to come in at 62.5, but instead it dropped to 54.9, which is its worst level since Y 1980.

Disappointment over the Survey faded the market’s early gains, at + 1%, but the broad market then began to work its way North.

The effort came without help from the financial sector, which had been a steady broad market driver during each of the past 4 sessions, lingering uncertainty about the fundamental health of financials and their exposure to potentially problematic markets left the sector to mark a 1.2% loss on the day, making it the worst performing sector on the day. Utilities and telecom, both defensive in nature, were the only other 2 sectors that suffered losses; both fell 0.6%.

The other sectors settled with gains; Industrials were the best performers. As a group, industrials advanced 1.8%. Their relative strength helped the DJIA out perform its counterparts.

Although they out performed, industrials were not the leaders, given their lack of broad market weight. So, even though the tone of trade was mostly positive on the day, the movement was deemed choppy.

There was still a strong appetite for Treasuries. In turn, the benchmark 10-yr T-Note rose nearly 1 full pt, which took its yield just below 2.25%.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials +1.8%, Consumer Discretionary +1.2%, Consumer Staples +1.0%, Health Care +0.8%, Energy +0.7%, Tech +0.6%, Materials +0.6%

Declining Sectors: Utilities -0.6%, Telecom -0.6%, Financials -1.2%

Volume and Breadth: trade was much lighter Friday than on any other day of the week and intra-day swings were far less violent than in prior days, suggesting a fall in investor anxiety. The market was down on the week and posted its worst 3-wk decline since March 2009 when it hit 12-yr lows. About 9B/shrs traded on the NYSE AMEX and NAS, much lower than the daily average of nearly 16B/shrs traded earlier during the week. It was the busiest week in terms of volume since October 2008. Advancers beat decliners on the New York Stock Exchange by about 9 to 5, and on the NAS 1,320 issues advanced and 1,239 fell on the day.

The US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis

Date	Symbol	Price	Technical Analysis	Support	Resistance
12 Aug 2011	QQQ	53.57	Neutral (-0.18)	NIL	53.66
12 Aug 2011	DIA	112.8	Neutral (-0.13)	108.98	116.16
12 Aug 2011	SPY	118.12	Neutral (-0.22)	NIL	121.12

The World Markets Weekly Wrap-up

Americas

INDEX	VALUE	CHANGE	% CHANGE	TIME
DJIA	11,269.00	125.71	1.13%	08/12
S&P 500	1,178.81	6.17	0.53%	08/12
NAS	2,507.98	15.30	0.61%	08/12
S&P/TSX	12,542.20	2.40	0.02%	08/12
MEXICO IPC	33,361.50	-228.83	-0.68%	08/12
BRAZIL BOVESPA	53,473.40	130.24	0.24%	08/12

Europe, Africa and Middle East

INDEX	VALUE	CHANGE	% CHANGE	TIME
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr	2,307.33	91.88	4.15%	08/12
FTSE 100	5,320.03	157.20	3.04%	08/12
CAC 40	3,213.88	124.22	4.02%	08/12
DAX	5,997.74	200.08	3.45%	08/12
IBEX 35	8,647.30	397.90	4.82%	08/12
FTSE MIB	15,888.60	611.42	4.00%	11:30
AEX-Index	291.90	9.11	3.22%	08/12
OMX STOCKHOLM 30	957.59	19.88	2.12%	08/12
SWISS MARKET	5,252.81	220.06	4.37%	08/12

Asia-Pacific

INDEX	VALUE	CHANGE	% CHANGE	TIME
NIKKEI 225	8,963.72	-18.22	-0.20%	08/12
HANG SENG INDEX	19,620.00	24.87	0.13%	08/12
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX	4,172.60	31.80	0.77%	08/12

Red’s Bull Trade Alerts Up-date: CF, HK and TNH make 52 wk highs on Friday

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Co (NYSE:CF)

Profile: CF Industries Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiary, CF Industries, Inc., manufactures and distributes nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products, serving agricultural and industrial customers worldwide.

Website: http://www.cfindustries.com

52wk range	82.48 – 168.84
New 1yr Target Est:		184.35

Petrohawk Energy Corporation Co (NYSE:HK)

Profile: Petrohawk Energy Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas properties located in the United States. The company has interests in various properties located in North Louisiana, East Texas, and South Texas. As of December 31, 2010, its estimated total proved oil and natural gas reserves were approximately 3,392 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalent consisting of 3,110 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 20 million barrels of oil, and 27 million barrels of natural gas liquids.

Website: http://www.petrohawk.com

52wk range:

14.32 – 38.51

New 1yr Target Estimate: 42.87

Terra Nitrogen Company, LP Co. (NYSE:TNH)

Profile: Terra Nitrogen Company, LP Co. produces and distributes nitrogen fertilizer products to agricultural and industrial customers. The company’s principal products include urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN), a liquid fertilizer; and anhydrous ammonia, a form of nitrogen fertilizer and the feedstock for the production of other nitrogen fertilizers, including urea, liquid ammonium nitrate, and UAN. Its customers for fertilizer products include dealers, national farm retail chains, distributors, and other fertilizer producers and traders

Website: http://www.terraindustries.com

52 wk range: 66.38 – 172.00

New 1 yr Target Estimate: N/A

Disclaimer: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or for results obtained from the use of this information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in Good Faith, are subject to change without notice. Before acting on any information contained on the website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.

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This Week on the Economic Front in the USA

August 15^th Monday

NY Empire Manufacturing, August (8:30): -0.4 expected, -3.76 past

Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (9:00): $23.6-B past

NAHB Housing Market Index, August (10:00): 15 expected, 15 past

August 16^th Tuesday

Housing Starts, July (8:30): 608K expected, 629K past

Building Permits, July (8:30): 606K expected, 624K past

Export Prices ex-agri., July (8:30): 0.0% past

Import Prices ex-Crude Oil, July (8:30): -0.1% past

Industrial Production, July (9:15): 0.4% expected, 0.2% past

Capacity Utilization, July (9:15): 77.0% expected, 76.7% past

August 17^th Wednesday

MBA Mortgage Index, 08/13 (7:00): +21.7% past

PPI, July (8:30): 0.0% expected, -0.4% past

Core PPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% past

Crude Oil Inventories, 08/13 (10:30): -5.225M past

August 18^th Thursday

Initial Claims, 08/13 (8:30): 400K expected, 395K past

Continuing Claims, 08/6 (8:30): 3698K expected, 3688K past

CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, -0.2% past

Core CPI, July (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% past

Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 4.87M expected, 4.77M past

Philadelphia Fed, August (10:00): 1.0 expected, 3.20 past

Leading Economic Indicators, July (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.3% past

This Week on the Earnings Front in the USA

Earnings season is still on, and this week we preview some tech and retail components, sector and market movers.

Players will be watching earnings reports from: Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE:DDS); LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE:LDK); Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE:LOW); Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL); Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD); TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE:TJX); Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT); Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE); DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS); JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ:JDSU); Staples Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLS); Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT); Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:BRCD); GameStop Corporation (NYSE:GME); Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS); Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ); Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE: CRM); and Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:SHLD).

I have not included the consensus analyst price target data, as it looks like it has not been fully updated to reflect the new estimates.

Monday, August 15th

Dillard’s Inc. (NYSE:DDS) estimates of 0.25 EPS and $1.42-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are$0.31 EPS and $1.36-B in revenues. Shares trade around 42.50 and the 52-wk trading range is 19.26 to 61.08.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE:LDK) estimates of 0.44 EPS and $716.37-M in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.33 EPS and $740.77-M in revenues. Shares are trading around 6.36 and the 52-wk trading range is 4.97 to 15.10. With the problems in solar, and with the Q’s of Chinese accounting, LDK could be up or down big.

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (NYSE:LOW) estimates of 0.67 EPS and $14.78-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.35 EPS and $11.97-B in revenues. Shares trade around 19.26 and the 52-k trading range is 18.97 to 27.45, its 52-wk low was tapped Friday.

Tuesday, August 16th

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL) estimates of 0.49 EPS and $15.76-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.45 EPS and $16.22-B in revenues. Shares trade around 14.88 and the 52-wk trading range is 11.34 to 17.60. Dell performed better on earnings last Quarter.

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) estimates of 0.83 EPS and $19.96-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.58 EPS and $17.17-B in revenues. Shares trade around 30.40 and the 52-wk trading range is 27.10 to 39.38.

TJX Companies Inc. (NYSE:TJX) estimates of 0.87 EPS and $5.43-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 1.06 EPS and $5.86B in revenues. Shares trade around 53.77 and the 52-wk trading range is 39.56 to 56.78.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) reports Tuesday am and analysts estimates are 1.08 EPS and $108.26-Bin sales; next Quarter targets are 0.97 EPS and $106.4-B in revenues. Shares trade around 49.85 and the 52-wk range is 48.31 to 57.90. The Company is likely to update its buyback progress, and went ex-dividend on August 10th.

Wednesday, August 17th

Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE) estimates of 1.67 EPS and $7.5-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 1.41 EPS and $7.5-B in revenues. Shares trade around 75.50 and the 52-wk trading range is 60.45 to 99.80.

DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ:DRYS) estimates 0.18 EPS and $263.55-M in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.22 EPS and $322.18-M in revenues. Shares trade around 2.75 and the 52-wk trading range is 2.19 to 6.44. DRYS is not a market mover or a sector mover, but it is a volatile stock when news comes out, and that low price may up the ante in here.

JDS Uniphase Corporation (NASDAQ:JDSU) estimates of 0.23 EPS and $466.35-M in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.23 EPS and $470.33-M in revenues. Shares trade around 11.70 and the 52-wk trading range is 9.09 to 29.12. The broadband and communications equipment sector is off its highs, and that means some of the later-cycle reporting earnings may not drop as much as others have over the last month.

Staples Inc. (NASDAQ:SPLS) estimates of 0.20 EPS and $5.65-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.47 EPS and $6.71-B in revenues. Shares trade around 13.50 and the 52-wk trading range is 11.94 to 23.75. Shares hit a year low last week and Y 2011 has turned up challenging for Staples.

Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) estimates of 0.96 EPS and $16.11-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.71 EPS and $16.31-B in revenues. Shares trade around 48.70 and the 52-wk trading range is 45.28 to 60.97. Target hit new lows the last week in May to June, so the market looking for a bottom in here.

Thursday, August 18th

Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:BRCD) estimates of 0.11 EPS and $550.9-M in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.13 EPS and $584.03-M in revenues. Shares trade around 3.45 and the 52-wk trading range is 3.18 to 7.30. Brocade has already warned, the news was all bad, and the hope of a buyout is finished.

GameStop Corporation (NYSE: GME) estimates of 0.22 EPS and $1.84-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.39 EPS and $2.01-B in revenues. Shares trade around 21.04 and the 52-wk trading range is 17.70 to 28.66. GameStop has been hammered despite a low valuation after the recovery, despite buying back stock, and despite a move to digital downloads.

Gap Inc. (NYSE:GPS) estimates of 0.29 EPS and $3.35-M in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.34 EPS and $3.70-B in revenues. Shares trade around 16.65 and the 52-wk trading range is 15.26 to 23.73. Gap is out of favor since its last warning. The good news is that the Cotton prices have come down, meaning an upside surprise could show op, or expected in guidance unless Gap locked in at high Cotton prices. The buyback is not helping, will wait for the Report.

Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ) estimates of 1.09 EPS and $31.2-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 1.32 EPS and $34.1-B in revenues. Shares trade around 32.25 and the 52-wk trading range is 29.75 to 49.39.

Salesforce.com Inc. (NYSE:CRM) estimates of 0.30 EPS and $528.63-M in revenues; next Quarter estimates are 0.31 EPS and $556.65-M in revenues. Shares trade around 135.00 and the 52-wk trading range is 95.75 to 160.12. This is a high-Beta stock and just fell in line with other Key stocks in tech from the highs.

Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:SHLD) estimates of minus 0.46 EPS and $10.13-B in revenues; next Quarter estimates are minus $2.14 EPS and $9.57-B in revenues. Shares trade around 62.00 and the 52-wk trading range is 58.45 to 94.79. Too strange to value, who likes a Company with minus EPS, not me.

For the complete list go to: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20110815.html

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The Most Asked Question last Week

The Big Q: Red, The Global Markets are cheap…where is the Cheer?

The Big A: For the last 3 wks + the markets have been risk-averse, that being the case World stocks are looking very cheap in here.

The valuations on the benchmark MSCI World equity index hit 11-month lows, falling 15% in less than a 2 wks. The index did move into the Bear Market Zone in its decline of more than 20% off of its 3-yr high in early May.

According to the data, the 12-month forward equity earnings yield stands at just over 10% for the MSCI index, its highest since January 2009 and more than 5 times the yield on 10-yr US T-Bonds.

For sure these are attractive valuations, however, they offer little comfort to most folks as they pay too much attention the Financial Media Noise that focus’ on what they term last week’s action a “Relief rally” and not a bounce off of the Bottom put in on Tuesday afternoon, that I expect will become a sustainable rally to the Key resistance.

This Financial Media Noise serves to keep individual investors focused on the US economic slowdown and a “fragile” EuroZone banking system (Wrong) and thus braced for a further sell-off in the near term.

When there is extreme fear the market, valuation is only considered a timing tool by the professionals. Valuations are very helpful in understanding the market’s downside and potential upside, but they do not help individuals deciding if the markets have fully capitulated.

It is true that cheap markets can get cheaper if you make wrong decisions. Volatility (the VIX) is extreme but it is falling, if you pay attention to it then it helps in decision making. Most folks do not pay a lot of attention to the VIX and so they stay on the sidelines until the move is clear before they come back in.

Investors withdrew a net US$14.4-B out of US domiciled equity funds in the week ended August 10, the biggest wave of net redemptions since May 2010, according to the data.

With more than 10 developed stock markets, including Britain and Germany, now boasting 12-month forward price to earnings ratio of less than 10%, some players including Shayne and I at LTN see the value.

Big Player, Blackrock, said Tuesday it will use profits from Gold and bond markets to seek bargains in falling Global equity markets. And finally the word is getting out that the Emerging Markets are the place to be in this Global growth cycle.

Last week European regulators responded to the pure speculation in their banking sector by banning Short sales of financial stocks, thus calming markets last Friday.

We here at LTN remains focused on quality stocks that offer steady returns and high dividends, we call them Aristocrat Stocks and profile them weekly on www.livetradingnews.com . They are not priced to make investors a fortune, but they are priced to give approximately 4 to 5% real return on capital, that beat the bank deposit rates soundly and risk is avoided.  Pay attention and Cheer up.

The 2^nd Most Asked Question for the 3^nd week straight

The Big Q: Red, Why stick with Gold and Silver?

The Big A: Here are 3 prudent reasons to own Gold and Silver (Silver is not as important as Gold IMO) in an investment portfolio from my POV.

1) a hedge against inflation

2) portfolio protection in the event of a financial meltdown

3) a hedge in against devaluing paper currency

How individuals can own Gold: the Gold SPDR ETF (NYSE:GLD) and iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) are good, and the physical bullion can be bought held or stored.

Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!

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Red’s Edge and in the Trenches

Reflect and Resolve to Make Money

The area that I believe to be of great importance to those of us who have a keen interest in trading markets is how to better Play the Game of trading and investing.

The 1st thing to do, IMO, is to reflect on what was done last year and how well it was done. I believe it will be the common denominator that some stuff was done well and some not so well. That said it would be a good plan to work to be better at what was not done so well in this New Year.

Looking into the past may be helpful to put together Resolutions that will bring positive changes that bode well for future action in the markets, in order to set up for continuing success.

The common areas that most all traders/players work on to improve in order to continuously post good Percentage and Money records are:

1. Formulate a Trading Plan for their business; this is a business, though many of refer to it as a Game.

2. Follow and fine-tune the Trading Plan along the way.

3. Learn to Cut Losses

4. Stop Cutting Profits

5. Manage your money; remember Your Money and Your Responsibility.

6. Education, Education and more Education, Knowledge is Power.

7. Last but not least are; never enter a position without a Way Out (aka Exit Strategy)

Lumped into 1 Key Trader/Player Resolution and followed will likely lead to improved trading results.

That said, always strive to do your best, use the best tools, be patient with yourself and be happy.

Each new day comes with new opportunities, challenges, and changes.

All the best,

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

PS:  if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you “tick”; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE

To succeed in trading, a Player needs Knowledge; Gain it and use it wisely

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The Key to Stock Market Understanding

We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades.

Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely.

So, that being said, and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business?

Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing.

Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success.

Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.

So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading.

You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless.

That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask.

So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward?

Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be.

Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game.

For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.

Safety

Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life.

In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so.

In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the “Plan” throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.

Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!

Again, the Reminder on Risk

Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.

When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the “Greed” factor; then come the Risk factors  that gives rise to the Fear factor in trading.

Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk.

Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them

One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even.

It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet.

When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero.

You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks?

Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders.

In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital.

Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires.

To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible.

You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance…

Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify.

The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction.

All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win.

Again, think Education First.

For news and information please go to www.livetradingnews.com,  www.paulebeling.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com , www.aseanaffairs.com sign up for RSS feeds on the latest US Market News, ASEAN and World News, Twitter, and the Hot List, it’s Free, and now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Live-Trading-News/193639810672419

My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom

Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby

Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!

Red’s Quote of the Week: If you want guarantees in life, then you do not want life, you want rehearsals for a script that has been written. Life by its nature cannot have guarantees, or its whole purpose is thwarted.—Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

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In View: US downgrade fuels political blame game in Washington

“Americans believe their country is headed in the “wrong direction.”

The 1st ever US credit downgrade is a likely addition to the political arsenals of both Democratic and Republican Parties in the lead up to the Y 2012 elections.

The Dems will blame the “Tea Party”, and GOP will use it to blame Barack Obama, and he will use it to blame Washington as a whole, and try to separate himself from the controversy as he did in his speech on Thursday at the battery factory.

Last week’s credit rating downgrade by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) came on the wake of a lot of drama in the US Congress, as lawmakers from the 2 parties engaged in what many of us saw as “brinkmanship” in the run up to an August 2 deadline to raise the Nation’s debt ceiling. They reached a, there was really never a Q that they would do, and raise the USA’s debt limit by US$2.4-T thus avoiding any default.

The move many believe was to light for S&P, one of the 3 major ratings agencies, so last Friday, after the close, S&P cracked it’s whip and downgraded US. sovereign credit to reflect its opinion that the Congress’ plan falls short of what the Country needs to do to get its fiscal house in order, as I see it S&P is pushing for a tax raise in the US.

The GOP and the Dems have different POV on this measure and hence the log jam in Washington now and in front of the Y 2012 presidential elections. I expect that the election will be a decisive one as the GOP come to the front line with its candidate, and that process started in earnest Thursday night in Iowa

The US citizens now blame the White House and both Congressional parties to a certain degree, polls indicate that the public faults the Republican Party slightly more for what some believe has been the party’s recent intransigence during the debt ceiling negotiations, partly because in the 2.5 years of the Obama presidency the debt ceiling was raised 3 time without an of the recent Operatic’s. Usually that action is done quietly and without any headline news or noise.

So far I do not see any polls where the public has taken a definitive side, and the downgrade remains low on the list of concerns of a public primarily concerned with the weak economy and few jobs prospects. It is also, a virtual non event for the government, Moody’s and Fitch are still at AAA for the USA.

Some US conservatives point to the issue as an indication of what they view as the Country’s decline under the stewardship of Obama. Recently, Obama and Boehner avoided pointing fingers and seemed to strike a conciliatory note. But in fact I do not believe they are aligned and there are more headline confrontation in the picture down the line.

Republican Senator Rand Paul in a press release Wednesday called for US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to resign, adding he intends to introduce a no confidence vote against the Treasury boss in the Senate.

A Gallup/USA Today poll last Tuesday found that 21% of the respondents, said most members of Congress deserve re-election, and that is the lowest percentage Gallup has found in its 20-yr history of asking that Question.

The poll was conducted in the days after Congress and the President reached an agreement on legislation to raise the federal debt ceiling, but before last Monday’s 600 pt stock market fall that wiped out over US$1-T in shareholder equity.

Gallup has noted in the past that lower support for incumbents’ re-election usually precedes significant turnover of Congressional seats in upcoming elections, such as those in Y’s 1992, 1994, 2006, 2008, and 2010.

Independent voters are especially critical of Congress, with 14% saying most members deserve re-election, compared with 24% of Republican and 26% of Democratic voters, the poll found.

In a poll released last Wednesday, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped to 45% from last month’s 49%.

The survey, conducted between Thursday a week, and last Monday, a period marked by the S&P downgrade, fears of another recession and a sharp drop in the US stock market, also found that 73% of Americans believe the country is headed in the “wrong direction.”

All market indications from my POV are that the fall of 17% in the S&P 500, the Key index, was a healthy correction in a raging Bull Market. There will be no Double Dip recession IMO. Stay tuned…

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

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Asia Watch: Focus on Japan GDP, and China Tech earnings

Asian investors will get some Key updates this week on how Japan’s recovery from the March 11 earthquake is going, with Tokyo set to release some important economic data.

Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the April-June Quarter are due Monday. A Key consideration will be whether the economy shrank more than the revised 3.5% drop in the Q-1 frame.

A major survey shows forecasts ranging from a 1.4% contraction to a deep 4.7% fall, with the median projection for a decline of 2.7%.

Japan’s Kyodo news agency quotes officials as saying the economy should swing back to growth in Q-3, given the pickup seen in recent industrial/production data.

Thursday, the Japanese July trade data will come out.

In June, Japan rose to a surprise trade surplus of almost US$900-M after posting deficits in April and May, economists and investors alike are watching to see if the trade-focused economy can repeat this.

June exports were below their year-earlier levels and imports were up, as production disruptions from the earthquake and a strong Yen pushed on the trade balance.

So, the big factor for Tokyo stocks, upside surprises for the GDP and trade data could go a long way toward pushing the Nikkei Average North again.

Other highlights for the coming week include minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last policy meeting.

The RBA had been on an extended pause, since last November, in fact, from its tightening cycle, but many analysts are suggesting the central bank will switch to cutting rates, given the rising economic uncertainty around the Globe. The minutes are due out Tuesday.

On Thursday, the market will be watching for earnings from 2 Key Chinese Blue Chips: wireless provider China Mobile Ltd. (NYSE:CHL) and computer maker Lenovo Group Ltd. (PK:LNVGF).

Indian markets are closed Monday for Independence Day, and South Korea will be closed too, in honor of National Liberation Day.

Hot Topics

The Museum of Modern Art “Campbell’s Soup Cans” by Andy Warhol in LA

Just about 50 yrs ago New York artist, Andy Warhol, had his 1st 1-man show in Los Angeles, thanks to a West Coast art dealer named Irving Blum.

Mr. Blum also had the presence to buy for himself “Campbell’s Soup Cans,” 32 small canvases for $1,000 the lot. He eventually sold the group for $15-M.

The paintings returned to Los Angeles, and are on display at Museum of Contemporary Art through September 19, their first appearance in there since they made their debut at the city’s Ferus Gallery in July 1962.

The exhibition is a tribute to the gallery, which operated from Y’s 1957 to 1966, and to Irving Blum, He also championed Roy Lichtenstein and Frank Stella early in their careers and gave Ed Ruscha his 1st 1-man show.

Mr. Blum 80 anni, a former Knoll Inc. (NYSE:KNL) furniture salesman who bought a piece of the gallery from artist Edward Kienholz, and persuaded Warhol to mount his 1st 1-man show there in Y 1962, at a time when most people refused to accept his work as art. The lore is that Mr. Blum persuaded Warhol to have the Y 1962 show in Los Angeles by telling that “Movie Stars come to the Gallery.”

In truth, the few Hollywood actors and directors who collected art were European expatriates who favored French paintings, the exception was actor Dennis Hopper, who bought a Warhol Soup Can in the early 1960′s and knew the Ferus Gallery crowd.

Mr. Blum sold 6 of the 20-by-16-in Warhol canvases for $100 each. Realizing the work was more significant if the pieces were kept together, he later bought back those he sold. He then negotiated a price from Warhol for all of the paintings, paying him $100 a month for 10 months.

Blum sold the paintings to New York’s Museum of Modern Art for $15-M in Y 1996, in a deal that was considered partly a donation even though it was one of the highest prices paid for contemporary art at the time.

Last year a 6-ft-high painting from the period, “Big Campbell’s Soup Can With Can Opener (Vegetable),” sold at Christie’s International for $23.8-M.

From Y’s 1988 to 2010, Warhol artworks overall trailed both the Standard & Poor’s 500 and an index of 50 contemporary artists, delivering a 255% return vs. 395% for stocks and 455% for the contemporary artists, according to Artnet Worldwide.

Warhol’s other Soup Cans from the Ferus Gallery period have beaten the market and his peers recently, delivering a 2,560% return since Y 1996, Artnet data show.

The Soup Cans will be on display at MOCA’s Grand Avenue location in Downtown Los Angeles. Nearby hang pieces from contemporary artists, including Jeff Koon’s and Richard Prince, all of whom owe a debt to Warhol.

Andy Warhol defined Pop Art and Irving Blum was very astute in seeing that the economics of being a dealer was based on retaining great works for your own collection.

“Andy Warhol Campbell’s Soup Cans,” will be on display at Moca’s Grand Avenue location downtown through September 19. Information: http://www.moca.org/museum/moca_grandave.php

US Federal Judge throws out Obama’s drilling rules

A US Federal Judge Friday threw out the Obama administration rules that sought to slow down expedited environmental review of Oil and Gas drilling on Federal lands.

US District Judge Nancy Freudenthal ruled in favor of a Oil and Gas industry group, the Western Energy Alliance, in its lawsuit against the federal government, including Interior Secretary Ken Salazar.

The ruling reinstates Bush-era expedited Oil and Gas drilling under provisions called categorical exclusions on Federal Lands nationwide, Judge Freudenthal said.

The government argued that Oil and Gas companies had no case because they did not show how the new rules, implemented by the US Bureau of Land Management and US Forest Service last year, had created delays and added to the cost of drilling. Judge Freudenthal rejected the Obama administration’s argument.

“Western Energy has demonstrated through its member’s recognizable injury,” she said. “Those injuries are supported by the administrative record.”

An attorney for the government declined to comment but Kathleen Sgamma, director of government and public affairs for the Denver-based Western Energy Alliance, praised the ruling.

The Energy Policy Act of 2005 allows the BLM and Forest Service to invoke categorical exclusions and skip new environmental review for drilling permits under certain circumstances.

The circumstances include instances where companies plan to disturb relatively little ground and environmental review already has been done for that area.

A categorical exclusion also can be invoked when additional drilling is planned at a well pad where drilling has occurred within the previous 5 yrs.

Categorical exclusions were widely used throughout the West, especially in the Nat Gas boom states of Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico, until last year.

In Wyoming, the BLM invoked categorical exclusions for 87% of the new Gas wells drilled in the Upper Green River Basin between Y’s 2007 and 2010.

Those drilling permits added up: Close to 3,000 over those 3 yrs in the basin’s Jonah Field and Pinedale Anticline gas fields.

The Jonah Field and Pinedale Anticline ranked 5 and 6 for Nat Gas production in the US in Y 2009.

Federal land agencies adopted new rules for interpreting the Energy Policy Act last year in response to an environmentalist lawsuit over the use of categorical exclusions. The Western Energy Alliance sued over the new rules last fall.

US Senator McCaskill says massive government job layoffs coming

US Senator Claire McCaskill (M0) said Friday that the struggle to balance the federal budget will result in the loss of jobs at “every level of government” over the next 10 yrs..

Ms. McCaskill remarks came at a press conference that wound up a statewide swing to discuss the employment crisis with workers and employers alike.

The Friday morning media event was held at a venue Senator McCaskill called the Key to retraining displaced workers and getting the economy back on track; the St. Louis Agency on Training and Employment.

She said job growth will continue to stall in the US unless the government eliminates or consolidates some of the 47 programs meant to boost employment.

To illustrate her point, McCaskill pointed to 3 agencies that currently offer employment services to veterans; the Small Business Administration the Labor Department and the Veterans Administration.

“We do not need bureaucracies in every agency to help Veterans,” the senator said. “Quite frankly, it makes it confusing for the Veterans.”

Confidence in Barack Obama’s leadership falls

The bad headline news, the wild market fluctuations, fear of a another recession, continuing high unemployment, and fallout from the debt Opera deal, has shaken confidence in President Barack Obama’s leadership, and now clouds his chances for winning re-election in Y 2012.

Mr. Obama is seeking a 2nd term in office in an election that is a long ways off in November 2012, but a weak economy plus the rising perception of political dysfunction in Washington complicates his political fortunes.

The political operatic spectacle that preceded a bi-partisan deal this month to raise the US government debt ceiling, and the subsequent down grading of America’s credit rating by S&P have brought on stories in the media about America’s decline as a World power under Mr. Obama.

Opinion polls now show that Mr. Obama’s job approval ratings are headed Southward, as members of the Democratic Party whisper in the halls of Congress about his lack of leadership, and fault his willingness to make concessions to the opposition in Congress.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll Wednesday found that 73% of Americans believe the country is off on the wrong track.

This was the highest reading since October 2008 when the financial crisis was full on and just weeks before voters turned away from the Republican Party of former President George W. Bush to put Mr. Obama in the White House. In terms of public opinion Mr. Obama now has got a long, hard row to hoe IMO, as ultimately the Presidential election is a referendum on performance, he is failing and the voters are faulting his lack of leadership, some folks are saying Obama does not get it…

Mr. Obama also faces the continuing criticism daily from the field Republicans seeking their party’s presidential nomination to face him in the Y 2012 general election. The field grew this week with Texas Governor Rick Perry, seen as a potential tough challenger, announced he is joining the race Saturday.

There were huge swings in the World’s stock markets last week. The DJIA moved hundreds of points in either direction on concern over the economy, the debt crisis in Europe and the US credit downgrade.

Something in the US has snapped in people’s minds and it is the sound of confidence in Mr. Obama’s leadership cracking.

The US President has so far failed to produce a coherent explanation about where the US is, and what it really must to do, and Americans do not understand that their President is casting about without a rudder.

Mr. Obama has promised to deliver a steady stream of good ideas to lift hiring, and will head out on a 3-day bus tour of the Midwest Monday to talk about his vision, but so far he has only renewed calls for action on the measures that he has talked about for months, including the extension of a payroll tax cut and unemployment aid, that’s not action, and the American voters know it. They want action not a PR trip to shake hands and raise money in the Heartland.

Americans are worried by the recent unrest reminiscent of the Y 2008 financial crisis, with stock prices down by over 10% from last month on concern about another recession in the USA.

Christina Romer, a former top Obama economic advisor, said the risk of a recession has increased and urged the President to think big about a program that could create the hundreds of thousands of jobs that she says the economy needs. “He has a unique opportunity now to really make the case to the American people. Congress is home and it is a chance for him to try to build consensus around a bold alternative,” said Ms. Romer, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

The Congress is on Summer recess, and the President is not about to call them back into session.

What America needs structural reform along with the stimulus, thus making Strong long-term improvements in the Nation’s fiscal position that will deliver powerful short-term effects by lessening uncertainty about future tax burdens. Stay tuned…

US Court of Appeals court rules against Obama healthcare mandate

US President Barack Obama’s healthcare law suffered a major setback Friday when a US appeals court ruled that it was Unconstitutional to require all Americans to buy insurance or face a penalty.

The Appeals Court for the 11th Circuit, based in Atlanta, found that Congress exceeded its authority by requiring Americans to buy coverage, but also reversed a lower court decision that threw out the entire healthcare law.

The legality of the individual mandate, a cornerstone of the healthcare law, is widely expected to be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. Opponents have argued that without the mandate, which goes into effect in Y 2014, the entire law falls on its face.

The law, adopted by Congress in Y 2010 after a hard fought battle, is expected to be a major political issue in the Y 2012 elections as Obama seeks another term in office and as all the major Republican Presidential candidates have opposed it.

Mr. Obama has championed the individual mandate as a major accomplishment of his presidency and as a way to try to slow the soaring costs of healthcare while expanding coverage to the more than 30 million Americans without it. The White House said it strongly disagreed with the ruling and voiced confidence the decision would not stand.

“Today’s ruling is one of many decisions on the Affordable Care Act that we will see in the weeks and months ahead. In the end, we are confident the Act will ultimately be upheld as constitutional,” an Obama aide Stephanie Cutter said in a statement.

The Supreme Court is expected to take up the healthcare law during its upcoming term that begins in October with a ruling possible by the Summer of Y 2012, just a few months before Obama faces re-election.

26 states challenged the Obama mandate, arguing that Congress had exceeded its authority by imposing such a requirement, but the Obama administration had argued it was legal under the Commerce Clause of the US Constitution.

A divided 3-judge panel of the US Appeals Court found that it did not pass muster under that clause or under the Congress’ power to tax. The administration has said the penalty for not buying healthcare coverage is akin to a tax.

“This economic mandate represents a wholly novel and potentially unbounded assertion of congressional authority: the ability to compel Americans to purchase an expensive health insurance product they have elected not to buy, and to make them re-purchase that insurance product every month for their entire lives,” the majority said in its opinion.

Quality of China’s exports to EU improved in 1-H

The quality of the products China exported to the European Union (EU) improved during 1-H of this year due to strict quality control measures, according to quality control authorities.

The number of quality complaints made by the EU regarding Chinese imports declined by 45% in 1-H of Y 2011, according to the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine (AQSIQ).

The administration attributed the improved quality to its nationwide crackdown on counterfeited and substandard products.

The administration launched a nationwide quality checkup in the first half of this year. Of the 4,815 batches of products that the quality control authorities checked between January and June, just 9.4% failed quality tests, 1.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year, according to the administration.

A total of 218,000 counterfeiting cases have been investigated so far this year, involving goods worth a total of 9.5-B Yuan (US$1.49-B), the administration said

Chicago grains finish higher for 3 days running

Chicago grains finished higher Friday, extending rallies through the 3rd trading day, after the US government cut the estimates of US crop yield. Add to that the strength from the outside markets.

The most active Corn contract for Dec. delivery closed at 7.145 per bushel, up 0.50, or 0.07%

Sept. Wheat gained 1.25c, or 0.2%, to 7.025 per bushel.

Nov. soybean climbed 3 cents, or 0.23%, to 13. 3475 per bushel.

Friday’s trading was choppy, as some players saw Thursday’s action overdone, and took profits, which, in combination with improving weathers in the Midwest, dampened the sentiment, some, but the strength from outside markets; energy and equity, worked to consolidated Thursday’s gain.

Chicago grains enjoyed a Strong rally Thursday after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Thursday cut its estimate for US production of Corn, Soybean and Spring Wheat for the market Y 2011/2012.

Meanwhile, Wheat also gained strength from the expectation of improving Wheat feeding usage as well as short-covering among fund traders.

The Soybean market was boosted by prediction from the China National Grains and Oils Information Center that China’s Soybean production should decline 10.5% Y-Y to 13. 5 million metric tons this year

See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7

At the Movies with Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town

Box Office Report: ‘Rise of the Apes’ and ‘The Help’ Dominate the Weekend; ‘Glee: The 3-D Movie’ Falls Flat

‘Smurfs’ has now grossed $242-M Globally, while ‘Apes’ Worldwide total is $180-M

20th Century Fox’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes stayed at # 1 in its 2nd weekend with $27.5-M, while DreamWorks and Participant Media’s The Help exceeded predictions in grossing $25.5-M for a #2 finish and Strong 5-day debut of $35.4-M.

The big casualty of the domestic box office race was Fox’s Glee: The 3-D Concert Movie, which came in # 11 in its debut, grossing just $5.7 million. The financial sting is minimized by the pic’s modest $9 million budget, but perception is a separate issue, considering how popular the TV show is.

Those who turned out did like what they saw; giving Glee the Movie, playing in 3-D theaters only, an A CinemaScore, moviegoers under the age of 25 gave it an A+. The concert pic played heavily to younger girls, with females making up 82% of the audience, while 66% were under the age of 25.

Fox took solace in the fact that Rise of the Apes jumped the $100 million mark at the domestic box office in its 2nd frame, dropping only 50%. Overseas, it grossed $40.5 million from 40 markets over the weekend for an International total of $75 million and Worldwide take of $180 million.

“We have a movie that is a broad, mainstream commercial hit. It’s remarkable to only drop 50% and do $27.5 million worth of business, despite $60 million worth of new movies coming into the marketplace,” Fox senior vice president of distribution Chris Aronson said.

Disney, which distributed The Help for DreamWorks and Participant, also was ebullient. The female-driven movie, based on Kathryn Stockett’s best-selling novel about white women and their maids in the Jim Crow South, drew an A+ CinemaScore, virtually guaranteeing a long and healthy run.

“The fact that audiences are responding this way couldn’t make us any happier,” Disney executive vice president of distribution Dave Hollis said.

The Help, directed by Tate Taylor, played especially well in African-American theaters and upscale commercial theaters, such as the Landmark and ArcLight in Los Angeles, and Lincoln Square in New York.

The movie’s large ensemble cast is led by Viola Davis, Emma Stone, Octavia Spencer and Bryce Dallas Howard.

While 74% of Friday night’s audience was female, that stat dropped to 69% on Saturday, indicating that more older men were showing up.

“It gives us a great deal of hope that more and more people will be exposed to it,” Hollis said.

The Help, costing $25 million to produce, was co-financed by DreamWorks and Participant, while 1492 Pictures produced the movie with Brunson Green and Taylor’s film company.

Faced with competition from Rise of the Apes for male attention, Final Destination 5 and Ruben Fleischer’s R-rated action-comedy 30 Minutes or Less opened to ho-hum results.

Final 5, from New Line and Warner Bros., opened at # 3, grossing $18.4 million and receiving a B+ CinemaScore. Heading into the weekend, box office observers thought the 3D pic, costing $45 million to produce, would open north of $20 million. The last title in the franchise, The Final Destination, debuted to $27.4 million in August 2009.

The good news: Final Destination drew 75% of its grosses from 3-D locations.

“In a summer of light 3D performances, to do 75% is huge,” said Warner Bros. executive vice president of domestic distribution Jeff Goldstein.

30 Minutes or Less, headlining Jesse Eisenberg, Aziz Ansari and Danny McBride, grossed $13 million for the weekend. The pic received a B CinemaScore, with men making up 58% of the audience. Nearly 70% of those turning out were under the age of 25.

Media Rights Capital fully financed 30 Minutes, which cost $28 million to produce. Like Glee the Movie and Final Destination, 30 Minutes doesn’t need to do big box office business, since its production budget was relatively modest.

Elsewhere at the box office, Sony’s The Smurfs continued to shine, jumping the $100 million domestically and winning the international race with a weekend gross of $60 million. Through Sunday, the pic’s global total was $242 million, including a domestic take of $101.5 million and International take of $141 million.

US Domestic Box Office: 8/12-8/14

1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes (3,691 theaters): $27.5 million
2. *The Help (2,534 theaters): $25.5 million
3. *Final Destination 5 (3,155 theaters): $18.4 million
4. The Smurfs (3,427 theaters): $13.5 million
5. *30 Minutes or Less (2,888 theaters): $13 million
6. Cowboys & Aliens (3,310 theaters): $7.6 million
7. Captain America: The First Avenger (2,835 theaters): $7.1 million
8. Crazy, Stupid, Love (2,635 theaters): $6.9 million
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2, 414 theaters): $6.87 million
10. The Change –Up (2,913 theaters): $6.2 million

Have some fun, see a movie this week.

All the best,

Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town

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US Major Markets Support and Resistance Marks

DJIA close: 11,269.02

Resistance

The 10-Day EMA: 11,389

11,452 (the November 2010 high)

11,555 the March 2011 low

The August 2011 low: 11,700

11,734 the November 1998 high

11,867 the August 2009 high

11,893 the March 2008 closing low

11,897 the June 2011 low

The 50-Day EMA: 12,040

The 200-Day SMA: 11,992

12,094 the April 2011 low

Support

11,178 from November 2010

10,978 the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation

10,750 from September 2010

10,710 the January 2010 high

10,700 from August 2010 high

9938 the August 2010 low

S&P 500 Close: 1178.81

Resistance:

1127 from August 2010

1178 is the October 2010 consolidation low

The 10-Day EMA: 1196

1196 the November 2010 consolidation high

1220 the April 2010 high

1227 the November 2010 high

1234 the August 2011 low

1235 the mid-December 2010 consolidation low

1249 is the March 2011 low

1255 from the late December 2010 range

1275 the early January 2011 high

The 50-Day EMA: 1274

The 200-Day SMA: 1286

1295 the April 2011 low

Support

1101 is the August 2011 low

1099 the mid-July 2011 interim high

1040 from the August 2010 lows

1011 the Summer of 2010 low

NAS close: 2507.98

Resistance

2532 the August 2011 Gap Open Down mark

The 10-Day EMA: 2540

2540 the early November 2010 lower Gap mark

2569 the November 2010 Gap Open Up mark

2580 the November 2010 closing high

2599 the June 2011 low

2603 the March 2011 intra-day low

2645 from December 2010 consolidation

2676 the January 2010 low

2686 the January 2011 closing low

The 50-Day EMA: 2694

The 200-D SMA: 2709

2723 to 2705 support at the bottom of the January to May 2011 trading range

2759 is the May 2011low

Support

2469 is the November 2010 low

2331 the August 2011 low

2305 the August 2010 high

2139 the May 2010 low

2123 the August 2010 Gap Open Down mark

2100 the August 2010 low

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US Market Sentiment + Bulls vs. Bears

The Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 36.36; -2.64

VXN: 35.22; -2.63

VXO: 37.37; -2.85

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.06

Bulls vs. Bears

The Bulls are at 47.2% vs. 46.3% last. The Bulls are head back toward 49.5% the mark they hit weeks ago, as they see the selling as overdone, this may not bode well in here for the market’s sustained recovery as it is a contrarian indicator.

For your reference: To be really Bearish the Bulls need to charge up to the 60- 65% mark.

The Bears are at 23.7% vs. 24.7% last. The Bears are retreating instead of rising in the up/down/up action; though up from 21.5% 3 weeks ago, and off of the July high near 28%.

For your reference: the 35% mark is considered Bullish for the market overall and Bearishness hit a 5 yr high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took Bearish sentiment to its highest level since Y 1995.

NB: Watching the VIX.  It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The Market Volatility Index (VIX) measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as “the options market’s gauge of investor fear.” Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there’s excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 1993.

**The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money.

***The VXO is the ticker created to track the “original VIX” that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.

What to expect this week on Wall Street…

It seem that every week there is no lack of economic data, and this week is not different, and lately it has been just lukewarm at best. But it is interesting to note that the major multinationals in the S&P 500 lineup have just over US$1-T in their collective bank accounts, a record amount…

What I am looking for this week is a catalyst for this market to extend the rally off of the relief bounce we saw last week, and then a run to the November 2010 low or to the neck line of the S&P 500 head and shoulder pattern in the 1,260 Zone. I believe the market it set up for that kind of action in here aka, the rally continues off of the relief bounce, and at the same time be prepared for some Southside action if the Technicals give a signal that the markets wants to test last week’s lows again.

And the Winners, they look like they want to continue to run North in here, but be nimble just in case the bounce is just a bounce and the Winners run out of momentum. More money is made faster on Southside moves than on the Northside action.

Watch for the action at the 10-Day MA, the November 2010 and the S&P 500 neckline at 1,260ish. Watch Monday for the moves to the Key resistance marks below.

DJIA: The 10-Day EMA: 11,389

11,452 (the November 2010 high)

S&P 500: The 10-Day EMA: 1196

NAS: The 10-Day EMA: 2540

Have a terrific week.

All the best,

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

___________________________________________________________________________

Red’s Weekly Report on Gold, Silver and Crude Oil

Charts by eSignal.com

Gold looks cheap to me, when looked at in inflation adjusted terms

The Overall Fundamentals

Commodities saw volatile movement last week, driven by intensifying talk of US Double-Dip recession, spreading of sovereign crisis from the European periphery to core economies, speculations of US Fed’s easing measures, and supportive macro-economic data.

During the week, the front-month contract for WTI Crude Oil dove below 80 for the 1st time since October 2010 while the equivalent Brent crude broke below 100 1st the first time since February 2011.

Both benchmarks recovered later in the week in tandem with the rebound in equities.

Gold

Gold was the best performer as players fled to the precious Yellow metal as a safe-haven investment.

The benchmark Comex contract gained +5.54% during the week with price rising to a new record high of 1817.6 Thursday before retreating after the SME announced margin increases.

While I believe Gold will see a further correction in the near-term, Gold will be the biggest beneficiary of low interest rates, rising economic uncertainties, and a new round of central bank easing that is coming.

Gold extended its rally last week, recording the biggest weekly gain since Q-1 of Y 2009, on Global economic uncertainty and speculations of the US Fed’s QE-3 at appears solid in coming sooner rather than later.

The precious Yellow metal rose to a new all-time high of 1817.6 Thursday before fading after the CME Group announced margin increases.

The CME raised the initial margin requirement to 7425 per contract from 6075, and the margin for hedging to 5500, up +22.2% from 4500.

Gold’s correction may continue this week, but the CME’s margin adjustment will not reverse the precious Yellow metal’s up-trend.

The market only used that as an excuse to take some profit from Gold’s recent exponential rally.

Gold’s accelerated rise may have been overextended in the near-term. The chart shows that its close Friday exceeded the upper 3 standard deviation. It is now reasonable for Gold to have a correction before resuming the rally.

The market has been talking about Gold price “Bubble” as it has risen more than +26% since the beginning of the year and almost 80% of the gain was made over the past 6 wks.

The nominal Gold price has risen to a record high and exceeded levels made in Y 1980. But, after inflation is adjusted, Gold price is still 20% below those levels.

Many people also compare the current economic situation with Y 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed; the current pattern of Gold price is more similar to the period from Q-3 of Y 2007 to Q-1 of Y 2008 instead.

If Gold is to resemble the movement at that time, price will need to rise +20% more it moved +50% back then.

Crude Oil

EIA, OPEC and IEA released their latest Crude Oil demand forecasts last week. In light of the economic slowdown and raised Global uncertainties, Oil agencies revised modestly their outlooks for Crude Oil demand growth.

OPEC lowered the demand estimates for both Y’s 2011 and 2012, the IEA trimmed this year’s outlook but raised next year’s and the EIA raised demand from Y’s 2010-2012 but the size of growth in Y 2011 was lowered as a result.

All 3 agencies warned of the great uncertainty in Global economic outlook.

The IEA stated that concerns over debt levels in Europe and the US, and signs of slowing economic growth in China and India have dampened the market and raised fears in some sectors of a Double Dip recession.

OPEC cited “Dark Clouds over the economy are already impacting the market’s direction…The potential for a consequent deterioration in market stability requires higher vigilance and close monitoring of developments over the coming months.”

Together with reduction of the price forecasts, the DOE/EIA said that ‘there is significant downside risk for Crude Oil prices if economic and financial market concerns become more widespread and take hold.

Putting the headline growth forecasts aside, demand in non-OECD countries remains Strong and its share of total Global demand was revised higher.

For instance: the EIA’s estimate of non-OECD as a percentage of total Crude Oil demand was upgraded to 48.02% in Y 2011 and 48.48% in Y 2012, compared with 47.91% and 48.78% respectively in July’s projections.

OPEC forecast non-OECD as a percentage of total Crude Oil demand to increase to 47.67% in Y 2011 and 48.43% in Y 2012, compared with July’s projections of 47.62% and 48.38% respectively.

China will continue to be the biggest Crude Oil consumer in the emerging markets. So, the economic developments in China and emerging markets will be more determinative for Crude Oil prices in coming year despite short-term volatility.

The Overall Technicals

Comex Gold (GC)

Gold’s up-trend accelerated to new record high of 1817.6 last week, formed a short term Top there, and faded on profit taking.

The initial bias is Neutral this week for some consolidations, but, any downside is expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1478.3 to 1817.6 at 1688 and bring on a up-trend resumption.

A clear break above 1817.6 targets 1900, the psych mark, and then 161.8% projection of 1309.1 to 1577.4 from 1478.3 at 1912.4 next IMO.

The Big Picture: Gold’s up-trend from Y 2009′s low of 681 is in progress, and momentum is Strong even though RSI in weekly and monthly charts are both in the overbought Zone. But, just as long as 1577.4 , the Key resistance turned support, holds, I am staying Bullish on Gold, and expect the up- trend to extend to 2000, the psych mark, next.

The Long Term Picture: the rise from 681 is the resumption of the long term up-trend from Y 1999 low of 253 and there is no sign of Topping yet. This up-trend can now target 161.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1945.6. And sustained trading above 2000, the psych mark, should point the way to 261.8% projection at 2727.2. Stay tuned…

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Comex Silver (SI)

Silver moved lower to 37.025 last week, forming a temporary low, and turned sideways. The initial bias is Neutral this week and some consolidations should come on first. But I expect any upside to be limited by 40.40, the minor resistance, and bring resumption of the fall from 42.294.

Right now, I am favoring the case that the corrective rebound from 32.30 finished at 42.294. A clear break of 37.025 should point the way to retest 32.30/33.38, the support Zone, first. But, a break of 40.40 will negate this Bearish POV and turn my focus back toward 42.295 instead.

The Big Picture: the Silver price actions from 49.82 are treated as consolidation pattern in the long term up- trend. The 1st leg from 49.82 should have completed at 32.30. Rise from 32.30 is treated as the 2nd leg and may have finished at 42.295 already. Sustained trading below 55-Day EMA, now at 38.108 should send Silver South through the 32.30 support Zone to 61.8% retracement of 14.65 to 49.82 at 28.085.

On the Upside: a clear break above 42.295 will delay this Bearish POV, and bring another rise towards 49.82, the high, instead.

The Long Term Picture: the deep sell off from 49.82 raises the possibility that long term up-trend from 4.01 is near completion as it faced Strong resistance from 261.8% projection of 4.01 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 54.032. But, it is still early to confirm a long term reversal yet, though an important top should be near, if not already in at 49.82. Upon confirmation of a Key reversal, Silver will likely dive towards 55 months EMA at 21.4. Stay tuned…

Comex Silver Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude Oil fell to 75.71 last week, just above the mentioned 100% projection of 114.83 to 89.61 from 100.62 at 75.40 and recovered.

A short term bottom was formed there, and some consolidations should be seen in near term.

Any Northside of recovery should be limited by 89.61, the Key support turned resistance.

On the Downside: a clear break below 81.03, the minor support, will turn bias back to the Southside for retesting 75.71 support first. A clear break there starts the decline again from 114.83 towards 70, the psych mark, next. But a clear break of 89.61 dampens my Bearish POV, and turn focus back to 100.62, the K resistance, instead.

The Big Picture: the medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the 2nd leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24. Sustained break of 83.85, the cluster support, indicates that the rally finished at 114.83, and the 3rd leg of the consolidation will have started. The current fall from 114.83 should now target next Key cluster support Zone at 64.23, 61.8% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 64.38. A clear break there points the way to retest 33.2 low.

On the Upside: a clear break of 89.61, Key resistance is needed as the 1st signal of bottoming or I will stay Bearish.

The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with 1st wave completed at 33.2, and the 2nd wave may be finished. Upon confirmation of medium term reversal, the 3rd (a downward wave) wave of the pattern should have started for a retest on 33.2 low. Stay tuned…

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Weekly Chart

Red’s Weekly FOREX Up-date; the EUR-USD pair

EUR-USD attempts a Bullish Breakout on good US retail sales numbers

Resistance Mark

Retail sales numbers came in better than expected in the USA, with the headline number at 0.5% for July.

The forecast was 0.4%, and June’s data was revised from 0.1% to 0.3%. Core retail sales was also 0.5%. The forecast was 0.2%, and June’s number was revised up from 0.0% to 0.2%.

This invites a bit of risk appetite by players; Bullish for the EUR-USD.

Although this is good for the US economy, risk-on trading actually creates outflow from the USD, which has stood as 1 of the safe haven currencies.

The market has found a resistance mark at 1.4280. The initial reaction after the “good” retail sales figures came out was an attempt to break this resistance.

Now a clear break above 1.4280-1.4300 area opens up the upper range resistance in the 1.4370-1.44 Zone.

Looking at the 15-min chart, I want to see the RSI break above 70, and I do not want a throwback to slide back below the 1.4220 pivot mark.

If the market fails to break above 1.43, then falls back below 1.4220, it is likely headed South to the 1.4150-1.4170 support Zone.

This is all choppy, range-bound action, there is no trend IMO until there is a break above 1.44 or below 1.40. Stay tuned…

_____________________________________________________________________

The LTN Hot List

The LTN “Hot List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.

Arizona Gold and Onyx Mining Co (PK:VGCP) Gold is trading just at 1500 oz, and Arizona Gold and Onyx Mining Co is enthusiastic that its Mayer mining project in Arizona represents excellent potential and a compelling opportunity for profitable minerals production during the new global paradigm of the 20th Century in which mineral commodities are the foundation for economic growth. http://www.livetradingnews.com/the-hot-list-aa-ryqg-vgcp-au-2-45588.htm

Atlas Capital Holding, Inc. (OTC:ALCL) Atlas Capital Holdings, Inc.( a Nevada corporation)  incorporated on September 13, 2006. The Company was formerly known as Micro Mammoth Solutions, Inc. and operated as such until January 25, 2010. On January 26, 2010, the Board of Directors of the Company approved a Stock Purchase Agreement between the Company and all of the shareholders of Atlas Capital Partners, LLC. Following the acquisition of Atlas Capital Partners the shareholders approved an amendment to the Company’s Articles of Incorporation changing the Company’s name from Micro Mammoth Solutions, Inc. to Atlas Capital Holdings, Inc. Last Friday Company’s shareholders approved the change of the Company’s name from Atlas Capital Holdings, Inc. to GreenTech Holdings, Inc.  The name change was approved by its shareholders as a step in the Company’s plan to acquire and invest in enterprises in the green products and services, clean energy solutions or related technology market place.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Atlas-Capital-Holdings-Inc-bw-939162802.html?x=0&.v=1

Focus Gold Corp (OB:FGLD) is a Company focused on acquiring and developing gold mining properties worldwide. GBGI has developed a private equity strategy to acquiring Gold mining properties following several Key investment criteria. http://www.focusgoldcorp.com

Royal Quantum Group, Inc. (OB:RYQG) is pleased to update its shareholders on the company’s progress over the past months.  http://www.livetradingnews.com/oil-hot-list-ryqg-e-rds-a-tot-46249.htm

Red’s Bull Trade Alerts and Option’s Alerts are suitable for Big Cap portfolios

priceline.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:PCLN), Ecopetrol S.A. ADR (NYSE:EC), Miller Petroleum (NASDAQ:MILL), Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ:LVLT)United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:X), Lincoln National Corporation Co. (NYSE:LNC), Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ:PNRA), Enbridge Energy Partners, LP, (NYSE:EEP), Peet’s Coffee & Tea, Inc. (NASDAQ:PEET), Coffee Holding Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:JVA).

See them daily at www.liveradingnews.com

Red’s Rules to always Play by…

Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”.

Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money)

Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing.

There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10’s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO).

The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge.

As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street’s buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting.

Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they sell for USUS$5 or less a share.

And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.

Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves.  They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains.

Do not think get rich – think get rich slowly; it works.

Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress.

You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free.

Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled.

Again, think “get rich steady” and not “get rich quick” and think Education!

The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80′s.  It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives.

Have a great week, and stay tuned.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. AKA The RedRoadmaster

Co-Founder of www.livetradingnews.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com.

Please check out www.paulebeling.com, www.RedRoadmaster.com and www.bull-penny-stocks.com.  Also, you can follow me on Google News and Blogs. You can contact me at Redroadmaster@aol.com

No you can join us on Facebook:  http://www.facebook.com/pages/Live-Trading-News/193639810672419

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.

www.livetradingnews.com

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Posted by Shayne Heffernan on Aug 15th, 2011and filed underEconomics, Economy, Equities, Equities, Futures, Hot Topic, In Depth, Latest News, Markets, News & Events, USA.You can follow any responses to this entry through theRSS 2.0You can leave a response by filling following comment form or trackback to this entry from your site