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Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Another week with lots of economic data, the continuing “Fiscal Cliff” talk, and market digesting a sharp decline + the US Fed. stuff .

On Friday St. Louis Fed Prez Bullard commented, funny not heavily reported. Mr. Bullard said that Operation Twist would likely not be continued but Fed may expand QE-3, The Big Stimulus, to buy other assets.

Mr. Bernanke and the FOMC statement said that other means would be used if necessary, even after things started to recover. Now thinks look necessary yes.

Mr. Bullard is out there pushing this action, making preps for some other kind of asset buys. Mr. Bernanke is getting impatient. The “Fiscal Cliff” is very worrying. He wants to paper over the problem before it gets really bad.

That sets the stage for the same actors to play, as no one received a mandate in the past election. The economy stumbling along, the stock market decided to avoid the Christmas rush, sold right after the election.

Add to that Mr. Bernanke is still at the Fed for his full term into Y 2014, as his theories will be put to the test.
Fiscal Cliff Vs QE-3, with the stock market in the middle of the Tug of War.

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The market sold 1st and will ask later after Obama won the election and kept the Senate. Investors are worried about the ability to resolve the tax hikes coming at them.

That said, if there is anything positive on the Fiscal Cliff the market can and will rally. If the Fiscal Cliff is resolved, claimed or thought to be, and QE3 Infinity is in place and will remain in place, that will be a Green light for stocks, but the Yellow Caution light is on for now

The Fiscal Cliff issue received its opening remarks late in the week. Obama gave a campaign speech with a sledge hammer after Rep Boehner gave some specifics he is willing to work with. It could be very contentious again.

So, for now the market watching to see how it turns out, and not sure of a timely resolution, negative sentiment for now.

Looking at the charts this pullback is enough and ready to bounce and begin the bottoming/basing process to set up for another leg up, maybe. I am looking for a relief bounce this week in the S&P 500 to test the support that it broke last week.

Those of you who play the Southside have good positions in place. Shayne and I believe there is more downside to come as part of a basing process to prepare the markets for the upside on the back of some more of that Big Stimulus from the US Fed..

When the relief bounce comes consider using it to lighten the Northside and prepare for more Southside.

This week is the market starts with many stocks oversold or need more work to set up for upside bets.

You have to do your homework and be selective in here. Stocks close to bottoming are potential bounce plays if there is a reversal on a early in the week sell off. Look out for that good play, be nimble it happens often.

Red’s Bull and Bear Trade Alerts

Red’s Option Trade Alert: MGM Resorts International NYSE:MGM

See them daily at www.livetradingnews.com

Paul Ebeling on Wall Street…

Another week with lots of economic data, the continuing “Fiscal Cliff” talk, and market digesting a sharp decline + the US Fed. Stuff.

Last Friday St. Louis Fed Prez Bullard commented, funny not heavily reported. Mr. Bullard said that Operation Twist would likely not be continued but Fed may expand QE-3, The Big Stimulus, to buy other assets.

Mr. Bernanke and the FOMC statement said that other means would be used if necessary, even after things started to recover. Now thinks look necessary yes.

Mr. Bullard is out there pushing this action, making preps for some other kind of asset buys. Mr. Bernanke is getting impatient. The “Fiscal Cliff” is very worrying. He wants to paper over the problem before it gets really bad.

That sets the stage for the same actors to play, as no one received a mandate in the past election. The economy stumbling along, the stock market decided to avoid the Christmas rush, sold right after the election.

Add to that Mr. Bernanke is still at the Fed for his full term into Y 2014, as his theories will be put to the test.

Fiscal Cliff Vs QE-3, with the stock market in the middle of the Tug of War.

The market sold 1st and will ask later after Obama won the election and kept the Senate. Investors are worried about the ability to resolve the tax hikes coming at them.

That said, if there is anything positive on the Fiscal Cliff the market can and will rally. If the Fiscal Cliff is resolved, claimed or thought to be, and QE3 Infinity is in place and will remain in place, that will be a Green light for stocks, but the Yellow Caution light is on for now

The Fiscal Cliff issue received its opening remarks late in the week. Obama gave a campaign speech with a sledge hammer after Rep Boehner gave some specifics he is willing to work with. It could be very contentious again.

So, for now the market watching to see how it turns out, and not sure of a timely resolution, negative sentiment for now.

Looking at the charts this pullback is enough and ready to bounce and begin the bottoming/basing process to set up for another leg up, maybe. I am looking for a relief bounce this week in the S&P 500 to test the support that it broke last week.

Those of you who play the Southside have good positions in place. Shayne and I believe there is more downside to come as part of a basing process to prepare the markets for the upside on the back of some more of that Big Stimulus from the US Fed.

When the relief bounce comes consider using it to lighten the Northside and prepare for more Southside.

This week is the market starts with many stocks oversold or need more work to set up for upside bets.

You have to do your homework and be selective in here. Stocks close to bottoming are potential bounce plays if there is a reversal on an early in the week sell off. Look out for that good play, be nimble it happens often.

Have a great week.

                           Re-cap of the US Markets for the Week ended 9 November 2012 

 US Stocks: Wall Street finishes its worst week since June

Stocks rose Friday but did not make up for what turned out to be its worst week since June, investors attention turned from presidential election to worries about the “Fiscal Cliff” and continuing EU financial crisis.

The S&P 500 finished Friday’s session + 0.17%, but it fell 2.4% on the week, its worst since early June. On the week, the DJIA fell 2.1% and the NAS declined 2.6%.

According to Thomson Reuter’s data through Friday, 449 companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings, 63.3% have topped analysts’ estimates, above the 62% average since Y 1994, but below the 67% beat rate over the past 4 Quarters. Though revenue results are disappointing, with just 38.2% of companies topping expectations, below the 62% average since Y 2002, and the 55% beat rate over the past 4 Quarters.

Industry Watch

Strong: Telecoms, Technology, Financials

Weak: Utilities, Consumer Discretionary

DJIA 12815.39+4.07 (0.03%) NAS 2904.87+9.29 (0.32%) S&P 5001379.85+2.34 (0.17%) 10-yr T-NoteUNCH 1.617

NYSE Adv 1449 Dec 1580 Vol 740.1-M NAS Adv 1236 Dec 1209 Vol 1.75-B

An S&P information technology sector index .GSPT rose 0.6%

Shares of Apple NASDAQ:AAPL 547.06, +9.31 rebounded from recent weakness, and the stock finished higher by 1.7%.

Kayak Software NASDAQ:KYAK 39.67, +8.63 rose 27.8% after agreeing to be acquired by Priceline NASDAQ:PCLN 625.87, -2.00. Per the agreement, PCLN will pay 40.00 per share of KYAK, representing a 28.9% premium to Kayak’s closing price Thursday.

Groupon Inc’s NASDAQ:GRPN shares sank 29.6% to 2.76 a day after the daily deal company’s results fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

International Game Technology NYSE: IGT gained 5.2% to 13.50 after the slot machine company reported better-than-expected Q-4 earnings.

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp NYSE:LGF rose 14.3% to 16.68 after reporting earnings of $75.5-M, an above-expectation figure that was boosted by the studio’s blockbuster movie, “The Hunger Games.”

Shares of Walt Disney Co NYSE:DIS fell 6% to 47.06, dragging on the DJIA, after the company reported results late Thursday. The company said coming results will be under pressure due to declining home video sales and rising costs.

The stock of J.C. Penney NYSE:JCP slid 4.8% to 20.64 and ranked as the S&P 500′s biggest decliner after the retailer reported a sharper-than-expected decline in Quarterly sales at stores open at least a year.

The market posted early gains on Friday after stronger-than-expected figures on US consumer sentiment.

But investors’ cooled after hearing from the House Speaker and the President about the Fiscal Cliff.

Rep. Boehner, a Republican, stated his opposition to any tax hikes on the wealthy late Friday morning. And Obama responded in the early afternoon by saying there was no way around tax increases, but that he would remain open to any new ideas that congressional leaders might have.

The Fiscal Cliff is a combination of government spending cuts and tax increases set to go into effect early next year unless Congress acts to change the law before then. It could take an estimated $600-B out of the US economy and drive it into recession again.

The Eurozone is not inspiring confidence. Greece’s finance minister said his country was running out of cash, growth in Germany is expected to weaken in the next 2 Quarters, and France’s central bank said the country’s economy would slip into recession as Y 2012 ends.

Germany and France are the Eurozone’s 2 largest economies, and Greece has been scraping by, thanks to a EUR 130-B bailout.

US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis

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                     Red’s Options Trade Alert: MGM Resorts International NYSE:MGM

Options traders were trading options contracts Friday establishing a new 3-month volume record for MGM Resorts International.

A total of 21,654 Put and 4,183 Calls were traded marking a 5.18 Put/Call Ratio PCR.

The PCR skew implies that investors are hedging their positions in anticipation of a stock move. Friday’s unusual volume activity confirms that traders are re-balancing portfolios.

Profile: MGM Resorts is the largest gaming and hotel company in the Las Vegas Strip gaming market, with more than 40,000 guest rooms and suites on the Strip, representing approximately 30% of all guest rooms in the market. The company’s Vegas properties include Bellagio, MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Mirage, Luxor, New York-New York, and a 50% ownership stake in CityCenter. Strip revenue comprises approximately 80% of revenue. In addition to its properties on the Strip, the company operates the 50%-owned MGM Macau, and casinos in other smaller markets.

MGM Resorts International finished at 10.01, + 0.23 (+2.35%) in Friday’s session. The shares of the stock traded between 9.76 and 10.05.

Volume: 8.8-M shares is less than the average 3 months volume of 9.2-M shares.

MGM is trading below its 20, 50 and 200-Day Moving Average.

Earnings Date: 31 October 2012

Analysts Recommendation: Hold

1 yr Price Target Estimate: 12.73

Performance Metric
Week       Month      Quarter     Half Year        Year

-2.34 %   -4.21%     +4.05%     -14.15%          -7.49 %

Recent CandleStick Analysis Neutral

Disclaimer: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or for results obtained from the use of this information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in Good Faith, are subject to change without notice. Before acting on any information contained on the website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.

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                           This Week on the Economic Front in the USA

12 November, Monday

None

13 November, Tuesday

Treasury Budget, October (14:00): -$113.0-B expected, -$98.5 B past

14 November, Wednesday

MBA Mortgage Index, 11/10 (7:00): -5.0% past

Retail Sales, October (8:30): -0.2% expected, 1.1% past

Retail Sales ex-auto, October (8:30): 0.1% expected, 1.1% past

PPI, October (8:30): 0.0% expected, 1.1% past

Core PPI, October (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% past

Business Inventories, September (10:00): 0.6% expected, 0.6% past

FOMC Minutes, 10/24 (14:00)

15 November, Thursday

Initial Claims, 11/10 (8:30): 388-K expected, 355-K past

Continuing Claims, 11/03 (8:30): 3125-K expected, 3127-K past

CPI, October (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.6% past

Core CPI, October (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% past

Empire Manufacturing, November (8:30): -9.3 expected, -6.2 past

Philadelphia Fed, November (10:00): -1.0 expected, 5.7 past

Crude Oil Inventories, 11/10 (11:00): 1.766-M past

16 November, Friday

Net Long-Term TIC Fl, September (9:00): $90.0-B past

Industrial Production, October (9:15): 0.0% expected, 0.4% past

Capacity Utilization, October (9:15): 78.2% expected, 78.3% past

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This Week on the Earnings Front in the USA

EARNINGS CALENDAR – REPORTS TO BE ANNOUNCED WEEK OF NOV 11 – NOV 17

Company                  Symbol   Date  Time       Eps    PrevYr

Pretoria Portland Cemen   PPC.J   11/12  B         n/a       n/a

Masterflex Ag Gelsenkir   MZX.F   11/12  D         n/a       n/a

Home Depot Inc             HD     11/13  B        0.58      0.51

Saks Inc                   SKS    11/13  B        0.09      0.06

Sunways Ag Koblenz Germ   SWW.F   11/13  D         n/a       n/a

Hot Topic Inc             HOTT    11/13  A        0.07      0.05

Gafisa S A                 GFA    11/14  D         n/a       n/a

Netapp Inc                NTAP    11/14  D         n/a      0.63

3u Telekommunikation Ag   UUU.F   11/15  D         n/a       n/a

Adecoagro S A             AGRO    11/15  D         n/a      0.05

Applied Matls Inc         AMAT    11/15  D         n/a      0.21

Dollar Tree Inc           DLTR    11/15  D        0.83      0.73

Wmf Wurttmbgshe Metllwr   WMF.F   11/15  D         n/a       n/a

For the complete list go to: http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20121112.html

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                                  The Most Asked Question last Week

The Big Q: Red’s how does the uncertainty of the Fiscal Cliff and the EU affect the markets?

The Big A: US Market Sentiment Dampened by Fiscal Cliff and ECB

Market sentiment continued to be weighed down by concerns over fiscal cliff in the US Friday, weakness in Eurozone data and ECB President Draghi’s lack of signal in further easing despite deteriorated economic outlook.

Wall Street, fell with the DJIA and the S&P 500 index falling -0.94% and -1.22% respectively.

Commodities climbed, recovering from the sharp fall in the prior day.

The front-month contract for WTI Crude Oil added +0.77% while the equivalent Brent Crude contract gained +0.40%.

Gold rose to a 3-week high of 1735.1 before settling at 1726.0, up +0.70%. Worried that sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone might have worsened again have sent the precious Yellow metal North again.

Now the focus is on what US President Obama will/can do in this 2nd term to avoid the US “Fiscal Cliff” problem is of the focus.

He spoke Friday about the issue reiterated his commitment to finding bipartisan solutions to: reduce our deficit in a balanced way, cut taxes for middle-class families and small businesses and create jobs. House Speaker John Boehner called for co-operation and stated that he’s confident that the Republican would accept new government revenues as part of a deal to reduce the federal debt.

The ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at the November meeting. While President Draghi signaled that the 17-nation bloc’s economic outlook has weakened, policymakers appeared to have no intention to add further easing measures to contain the deterioration, the unchanged inflation outlook is one Key reason.

The central bank viewed current interest rates as appropriate and “accommodative” enough for the current situation, citing negative real rates as an evidence of this very easy stance.

The OMT is now operational, the President asserted that it would not be unconditional and the Spanish government would be get assurances about OMT ahead of its application.

Concerning Greece, the ECB welcomed passage of the austerity measures by the parliament but stated that the central bank “is by and large done” on assistance given to Greece. The ECB also stated that the central bank “assures price stability and pursues the restoration of monetary-policy transmission channels but cannot do monetary financing”. This is expected to refer to the potential for T-Bills financed by ELA and its legitimacy.

Germany’s trade balance surplus fell from EUR 18.1-B to EUR 17.0-B in September. The surprising decline in exports on both monthly and yearly bases is worrisome.

Indeed, the -3.4% Y-Y drop in export was the first negative reading since early Y 2010. Initial jobless claims fell -8-K to 355-K in the week ended 3 November. The decline was probably due to the situation that some were not able to submit applications due to power outages and transportation disruptions. The 4-wk average rose +3-K to 371-K last week while continuing claims fell -135-K to 3127-K in the week ended 27 October.

Friday, the University of Michigan confidence index might have risen to 82.9 in November from 82.6 a month ago.

PS: We here at LTN are focused on natural resources, agriculture, the Singapore $, and quality stocks that offer steady returns and high dividends, we call them Aristocrat Stocks (and the events that shape the market prices) and profile them weekly on www.livetradingnews.com . They are not priced to make investors a fortune, but they are priced to give approximately 4 to 5% real return on capital, that beat the bank deposit rates soundly and risk is avoided.  Pay attention and Cheer up.

Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!

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Red’s Edge and in the Trenches

                                            Reflect and Resolve to Make Money

The area that I believe to be of great importance to those of us who have a keen interest in trading markets is how to better Play the Game of trading and investing.

The 1st thing to do, IMO, is to reflect on what was done last year and how well it was done. I believe it will be the common denominator that some stuff was done well and some not so well. That said it would be a good plan to work to be better at what was not done so well in this New Year.

Looking into the past may be helpful to put together Resolutions that will bring positive changes that bode well for future action in the markets, in order to set up for continuing success.

The common areas that most all traders/players work on to improve in order to continuously post good Percentage and Money records are:

1. Formulate a Trading Plan for their business; this is a business, though many of refer to it as a Game.

2. Follow and fine-tune the Trading Plan along the way.

3. Learn to Cut Losses

4. Stop Cutting Profits

5. Manage your money; remember Your Money and Your Responsibility.

6. Education, Education and more Education, Knowledge is Power.

7. Last but not least are; never enter a position without a Way Out (aka Exit Strategy)

Lumped into 1 Key Trader/Player Resolution and followed will likely lead to improved trading results.

That said, always strive to do your best, use the best tools, be patient with yourself and be happy.

Each new day comes with new opportunities, challenges, and changes.

All the best,

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

PS:  if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you “tick”; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE

To succeed in trading, a Player needs Knowledge; Gain it and use it wisely

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The Key to Stock Market Understanding

We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades.

Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely.

So, that being said, and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business?

Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing.

Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success.

Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.

So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading.

You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless.

That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask.

So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward?

Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be.

Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game.

For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.

Safety

Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life.

In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so.

In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the “Plan” throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.

Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!

Again, the Reminder on Risk

Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.

When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the “Greed” factor; then come the Risk factors that give rise to the Fear factor in trading.

Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk.

Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them

One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even.

It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet.

When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero.

You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks?

Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders.

In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital.

Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires.

To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible.

You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance…

Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify.

The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction.

All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win.

                My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom

                  Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby

                     Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!

Red’s Favorite Quote for this Week: “Peace is that brief glorious moment In history when everybody stands around reloading.” –Thomas Jefferson

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                                                 Hot Topics

See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7

In View:  US Treasury pares TARP cost estimates

The US Treasury Department Friday pared its forecast for the Troubled Asset Relief Program’s lifetime cost as the share price of insurer American International Group Inc. NYSE:AIG rose.

TARP, a massive financial bailout launched as the Y 2008 financial crisis threatened to cripple markets, will ultimately cost taxpayers $42.10-B, the Treasury said in a monthly report to the US Congress, which is down from the prior estimate of $47.73-B.

The Treasury’s estimates fluctuate as it updates share prices for AIG and General Motors Co. NYSE:GM, and makes other small adjustments to its projections.

The latest estimate is based on market prices as of 30 September when AIG shares were at 32.79 and GM’s were 22.75. The prior estimate used market figures from 31 May, when AIG was at 29.18 and GM at 22.20.

AIG shares closed Friday at 32.17, and GM’s closed at 25.04.

Four yrs after TARP’s launch, the US still has investments in AIG, GM, Ally Financial Inc. and hundreds of small banks. The US holds just under 16% of AIG’s shares after selling a large lot of the insurer’s shares in September.

The Treasury’s 26.5% stake in GM has been more of a problem. While the Treasury figures to turn a profit on the AIG bailout, it would lose money if it sold GM at current prices.

The Treasury Friday projected the auto bailout would cost $24.27-B.

TARP finished up a smaller and less costly program than initially projected. At one point, TARP’s price tag was set at $700-B. Ultimately, $431-B was disbursed through a few of programs, and about 90% has been recovered as companies’ paid back funds or the government sold off investments.

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Eurozone Watch:  EU Y 2013 budget talks end, fail

Talks on the European Union’s Y 2013 budget collapsed in acrimony Friday, denting hopes of a swift deal later this month on the bigger issue of the bloc’s long-term spending for Ys 2014-2020.

Negotiators for EU governments and the European Parliament walked out without even discussing next year’s spending blueprint, after 8 hrs spent squabbling over a request for EUR 9-B in extra cash to fill a funding gap in Y 2012.

“Under these conditions, we felt that negotiations which hadn’t really begun by six o’clock in the evening couldn’t reasonably be expected to finish during the night,” said the parliament’s lead negotiator, French lawmaker Alain Lamassoure.

Sources in the meeting said the talks ultimately failed because lawmakers from the European Parliament refused to discuss the Y 2013 budget before an agreement on the extra funds for Y 2012, while governments wanted to negotiate both as a package.

ASEAN Watch:  Indonesian government expects 6.4% growth in Q-4

The Indonesian government expected economy to expand by 6.4% in the final Quarter, supported by investment, consumption and government spending, a minister said Saturday.

Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economy Hatta Rajasa said that he expected the economy to grow by at least 6.3% this year.

“Our target is 6.4% at Q-4,” he told reporters at the State Palace.

The government spending regularly peaks at the last Quarter.

Indonesia’s economy accelerated by 6.17% in Q-3 after growing by 6.37 and 6.3% in the 1st 2 Quarters respectively, according to the national statistic bureau.

The central bank said on Thursday that it expects the inflation to be in the range of 3.5 to 5.5% this year and next year.

Inflation edged up 4.61% in October from a year earlier, the bureau reported.

Indonesian investment increased significantly by 25.1% to 81.8-T Rupiah (some US$8.5-B) in Q-3 on yearly basis, Chairman of the Investment Coordinating Board M. Chatib Basri, said.

Moody’s and Fitch’s have raised Indonesia’s credit rating to investment grade, which will help luring foreign funds to flow into the country.

BRICS Watch:  Signs of Economic Rebound in China Becoming More Clear

It is becoming more clear that the Chinese economy is rebounding, Zhang Ping, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency, said Saturday.

Mr. Zhang was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Communist Party Congress, where the party will anoint its next generation of leaders.

Earlier Saturday, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed that October exports rose 11.6% from a year earlier, accelerating from a 9.9% rise in September.

It was the latest in a series of data to exceed economist expectations and firm up confidence that the Chinese economy is recovering after a prolonged slowdown.

China October Trade Surplus Widens to $32.0-B

China’s trade surplus widened in October to $32.0-B from $27.7-B in September, data issued Saturday showed.

The median forecast in a survey of economists was for a $27.0-B surplus.

October exports rose 11.6% from a year earlier, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, higher than September’s 9.9% rise and above economists’ median forecast of a 10.0% expansion.

Imports rose 2.4%, compared with a median forecast of a 4.0% rise and a 2.4% increase in September.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

US Economy Watch:  US Fed Chairman Bernanke influence may tie-up successor’s options

President Obama’s next choice to head the US Federal Reserve may have tied hand if Mr. Bernanke and company continue to re-write the policymaking rule book as they are doing now.

Under Chairman Bernanke, expected to step down when his current term expires in January 2014, the US central bank has embraced the goal of making the historically shrouded business of setting monetary policy far more transparent.

The Fed has adopted new rules and guidelines to clarify its policy intentions, including an inflation target and a conditional vow to hold interest rates near Zero until at least mid-2015.

US Fed policymakers are working to agree on a set of economic variables, probably particular levels of unemployment and inflation that would signal when the time to raise interest rates draws near.

The difficulty is in making a credible commitment that convinces investors to keep longer-term borrowing costs low, thus stimulating the economy, and at the same time ensuring that the Fed can react fast to changing economic realities.

The concern is that these rules and guidelines will dampen the central bank’s flexibility in years to come as it deals with the ups and downs of a protracted US economic recovery.

The Fed is considering adopting a consensus forecast to give investors a better sense of how policy is likely to evolve. That would build on a January decision to publish for the 1st time individual policymakers interest rates forecasts. Stay tuned…

                      At the Movies with Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town

               Domestic Box Office Report, “Skyfall” takes Top Bond opening with $87.8-M

The film has earned a $518.6-M worldwide, including $428.6-M internationally, Steven Spielberg’s awards contender “Lincoln” opened in 11 cities to strong numbers.

Sam Mendes’ James Bond pic Skyfall easily seduced the North American box office with a potent $87.8-M debut, bringing its worldwide take to $518.6-M.

The film’s 4-day domestic take is $90-M, including $2.2-Mearned in exclusive Thursday runs in IMAX and other large-format theaters.

Returning Daniel Craig in the role of 007 for a 3rd time, MGM and Sony’s “Skyfall” saw the largest domestic opening for a James Bond pic. It also marked Sony’s 9th #. 1 opening of Y 2012.

Skyfall is doing huge business overseas, where it grossed $89-M during the weekend for an international total of $428.6-M. The pic began rolling out two weeks ago overseas.

The 23rd installment in the Bond franchise will surpass the $586.1-M earned by Quantum of Solace and the $594.2-M grossed by Casino Royale in their worldwide runs.

Domestic box-office revenue was up an impressive 27% over the same weekend a year ago thanks to Skyfall and strong holdovers including; Wreck-It Ralph, Flight, Argo and Taken 2.

Skyfall generated strong numbers for IMAX theaters, which took in $13.1-M, the best debut for a non Summer opening. IMAX’s worldwide weekend number is expected to come in at $15.8-M for a $28-M take.

Produced by EON Productions, Skyfall’s domestic opening was driven by an A CinemaScore and great reviews. The film skewed older, with 75% of the audience over age 25. Males made up 60% of those buying tickets.

The movies’ most famous Spy saves M, again by Judi Dench, and MI-6 from former operative-turned-villain Raoul Silva, by Javier Bardem. The film also stars Ralph Fiennes, Naomie Harris, Berenice Lim Marlohe and Albert Finney.

Skyfall cost about $200-M to produce after rebates.

Opening in only 11 cities before it expands nationwide 16 November, Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln also earned an A CinemaScore and strong reviews. The DreamWorks film is distributed domestically by Disney.

Lincoln, starring Daniel Day Lewis as the 16th US President, grossed $900,000 for a strong location average of $81,818.

Disney Animation Studios’ Wreck-It Ralph continued as a box-office hit, falling a narrow 33% in its 2nd weekend to come in # 2 for the weekend, grossing $33.1-M for a domestic take of $93.7-M, the 3-D cartoon earned another $11.2-M overseas for a global take of $120-M.

Paramount’s Flight, directed by Robert Zemeckis and starring Denzel Washington, came in #3 in its second weekend, grossing a $15.1-M for a domestic total of $47.8-M.

Ben Affleck’s Argo grossed $6.7-M to place # 4. The Warner Bros. entry has earned $85.7-M domestically.

Taken 2, from 20th Century Fox and EuropaCorp, placed # 5, earning $4-M for a domestic take of $131.2-M.

Have some fun, see a movie this week.

All the best,

Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town

__________________________________________________________________________________

                            US Major Markets Support and Resistance

DJIA close: 12,815.39

Resistance

The 200-Day SMA: 12,992

13,056 the Feb 2012 high

13,058 the May 2008 high

The 50-Day EMA: 13,228

13,297 the Apr 2012 high

13,331 the Aug 2012 high

13,653 the Sept 2012 high

13662 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

13,668 from the Dec 2007 high

13,692 from the Jun 2007 high

14,022 from the Jul 2007 high

Support

12,716 the Apr 2012 closing low

12,391 the Feb 2011 high

12,369 from a May 2012 low

12,284 the Oct 2011 high

12,258 the Dec 2011 high

12,110 the Mar 2007 closing low

12,094 the Apr 2011 low

S&P 500 close: 1377.51

Resistance

The 200-Day SMA: 1381

1402 the Aug 2012 closing low

1406 early May 2012 high

The 50-Day EMA: 1421

1422 the Mar 2012 high

1425 the Oct 2012 low

1427 the Aug 2012 high

1433 from the Aug 2007 closing lows

1440 from the Nov 2007 closing lows

1464 the Jun 2012 up-trend line

1466 is the Sept 2012 closing high

1471 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

1475 the Sept 2012 high

1499 from Jan 2008

1539 from Jun 2007

Support

1378 the Feb 2012 high

1375 the early Jul 2012 high

1371 the May 2011 high

1363 the Jun 2012 high

1359 the Apr 2012 low

1357 the Jul 2011 high

1344 the Feb 2011 high

1340 the early Apr 2011 high

NAS close: 2904.87

Resistance

2942 the mid-Jun 2012 high

2950 the mid-Apr 2012 closing low

2962 he April 2012 low

2977 the bottom of the late Oct 2012 consolidation

The 200-Day SMA: 2983

2988 the Jul 2012 high

2999 the bottom of the Aug 2012 consolidation

3000 the Feb 2012 high

3026 from the October 2000 low

The 50-Day EMA: 3033

3042 from the May 2000 low

3076 the late Apr 2012 high

3090 the mid-Mar 2012 interim high

3037 the Oct 2012 low

3101 the Aug 2012 high

3134 the Mar 2012 high

3171 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

3197 the Sept 2012 high

3227 the Apr 2000 intra-day low

3401 the May 2000 closing low

Support

2900 the Mar 2012 intra-day low

2858 the late Jul 2011 high

2847 the mid-May 2012 low

2838 from the Jul 2012 lows

___________________________________________________________________         

                                           US Market Sentiment

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 18.61; +0.12

VXN: 19.41; -0.73

VXO: 19.35; +0.42

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.17; +0.04

Bulls Vs Bears

The Bulls are at 43.6 Vs 41.5% last. They are moving up as the market declines on top of a more orderly prior pullback. Interesting to see if the Bull’s confidence that tracks the TR/MSI holds next week.

For your reference: 35% is the threshold for bullishness, in early June it hit 34%, the market rallied. Hard drop to 34 from 39.3% as economic reality and a choppy stock market hit. Again, 35% is the mark signaling Bullishness. And to be really Bearish it needs to get up to the 60-65% mark.

The Bears are at 27.7% Vs 27.7% last. At 27.7% holding a line, they have to get to 35% to be really Bearish and signal a rally.

For your reference: over 35% is the threshold needed to be a good upside indicator. Bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took Bearish sentiment to its highest level since Y 1995, extreme negative sentiment for sure.

NB: Watching the VIX.  It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The VIX measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as “the options market’s gauge of investor fear.” Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there’s excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 19**The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money.

Focus on FX: EUR/USD Pair

 EUR/USD Slipped away from 1.28

ECB reaction: The EUR/USD consolidated Thursday after the ECB statement and press conference. The pullback was insignificant unless it broke above 1.28, and it did not. It came up to 1.2788 during the 9 November Asian session, but fell sharply during the European session.

Downside: In the US session EUR/USD slid away from 1.28 and about to tag 1.27. It hold under 1.28 now, but do not be surprised for another move here in a more significant pullback than the one we had after the ECB risk event.

If the market can now clear below 1.27, the focus remains to the Southside, to the next Fibonacci retracement target, 50% of the 1.2041-1.3171 July-Sept swing, in the 1.26-1.2620 area.

____________________________________________________________________

                                  Focus on Precious Metals and Energy

The Overall Fundamentals

Precious Metals

The complex rose across the board, Gold and Silver outperformed PGMs during the week.

Gold’s rebound after the US election signaled confidence that the US Fed would continue unconventional monetary easing, aka QE-3 or the Big Stimulus.

PGMs as industrial metals, fell on concerns over “Fiscal Cliff” in the US and softening in strikes in South African mines.

Crude Oil

While both benchmark Crude Oil contracts gained during the week, the price actions were rather choppy. Relief rallies after the election were short-lived as both WTI and Brent Crude experience sharp declines on the day after the US elections.

During the week, WTI Crude added +1.43% while Brent Crude soared +3.52%, maintaining the WTI-Brent spread at 1-yr low above 20.

S&P’s cut WTI contract’s weigh in its GSCI commodities index next year while raised that of Brent. the agency said that WTI’s weighing would contribute 24.71% of the index, down from 30.96% this year while that of Brent contract would make up 22.34% of the index, up from 18.35% currently.

According to S&P, “there’s been a migration of volume toward Brent” and “Brent represents the global market more than WTI”. Indeed, recent incidents have resumed talks that WTI should not be used as the key benchmark of international Crude Oil prices.

The latest weekly Crude Oil inventory report revealed the impact of Superstorm Sandy on US Crude Oil supply. Crude Oil inventory added +1.77 mmb to 374.85 on weekly basis. For fuel products, gasoline and distillate gained +2.88 mmb and +0.13 mmb respectively. All the above categories stayed above respective 5-yr averages. In terms of demand, gasoline consumption slumped to 8.31M bpd, the lowest level since March.

Another issue is the rapid increase in Crude Oil supply in North Dakota, in PADD 2, which is now the USAs 2nd largest Crude Oil producing state, after Texas. Although drilling activities have been on the decline, Crude Oil production is in reverse, with production reaching 702-M bpd in August. The number of Crude Oil rigs dropped to 176 in September, the lowest level since August 2011 and down -12% from the all-time high of 200 in June.

Natural Gas

The DOE/EIA reported that natural gas storage rose +21 bcf to 3 929 bcf in the week ended on 2 November. Stocks were +109 bcf higher than the same period last year and +244 bcf above the 5-yr average of 3 685 bcf.

The Baker Hughes Rig Count: BHI reported that the number of Nat Gas rigs fell -11 units to 413 in the week ended 8 November . Crude Oil rigs increased +16 unit to 1 389 and Miscellaneous rigs added +1 unit and the total number of rigs added +6 units to 1 806. Directionally oriented combined oil, gas, and miscellaneous rigs dropped -1 unit to 194 units while horizontal rigs stayed slid -1 unit at 1 104 and vertical rigs gained +8 units to 508 during the week

The Overall Technicals

Comex Gold (GC)

The rebound and break of the Key resistance at 1727.5 suggests a short term bottom formed at 1672.5 in Gold.

My initial bias is now on the upside this week for recovery. There may well be strong resistance ahead of the high at 1798.1 and bring on another decline. A break below 1703, the minor support. turns the bias back to the Southside for a 50% Fibo retracement of 1526.7 to 1798.1 at 1662.4 and below.

The Big Picture: price actions from the high at 1923.7 are seen as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that the consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. The downside of any falling leg should be contained at 1478.3/1577.4, the support zone, and bring rebound. A clear break of the resistance zone at 1792.7/1804.4 augurs that the long term up-trend may be resuming for a new high above 1923.7.

The Long Term Picture: with support intact at 1478.3, there is no change in the long term Bullish outlook in Gold. More medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, I see a break of the psych mark at 2000 in the long run. stay tuned…

Comex Silver (SI)

Silver’s crack of the resistance at 32.695 suggests that a short term bottom formed at 30.65 after drawing support at 50% Fibo retracement of 26.105 to 35.445 at 30.775.

My initial bias is mildly on the Northside this week for recovery back to 55-Days EMA now at 30.01 and above.

On the downside: A break below 31.63, the minor support, will turn bias back to the Southside. Break of 30.65 targets 61.8% fibo retracement at 29.651 and below.

The Big Picture, as long as resistance at 37.58 holds, price actions from 26.105 are seen as a consolidation pattern only, meaning, the down trend from 49.82 high is not finished yet and an new low below 26.105 is in favor. But a break of 37.58 dampens this Bearish case and could bring stronger raise back to the high at 49.82 and above.

The Long Term Picture: the main question remains on whether 49.82 is a medium term or long term top. With 61.8% Fibo retracement of 8.4 to 49.82 at 24.22 intact, price actions from 49.82 could turn out to be consolidations only. A clear a break of the resistance at 37.58 points to a new high above 49.82 IMO. Stay tuned…

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

After some volatility, Crude Oil fell further to 84.05 last week before recovering some.

My initial bias is Neutral for this week for some sideway trading.

Note: Crude Oil is staying inside near term falling channel. As long as 89.22, the minor resistance holds, deeper decline is favored. A break below 84.05 targets the psych mark at 80 next. I expect strong support ahead of 77.28 to bring a rebound. But, a clear break of 89.22 should indicate short term reversal and target the resistance at 93.66.

The Big Picture: this action suggests that price moves from 114.83 are a triangle consolidation pattern. The fall from 100.42 is likely the 5th and the last leg of the consolidation. That said, any downside should be contained above 77.28 and bring an upside breakout eventually. A clear break of 110.55 suggests that whole rebound from 33.29 has resumed for a move to 114.83 and above.

The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with 1st wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it’s 2nd wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, I see strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern. Stay tuned…

____________________________________________________________________________________

                                               LTN Hot List

The LTN “Hot List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.

American Estates Management Company (PK: AEMC) provides mining and mineral processing engineering services; geological and environmental services; marketing, project development, project management, and mineral resource management services. American Estates Management Company markets mineral and metal products and equity in mineral and metal projects, and partners in the development of mineral assets and metal production facilities. American Estates Management Company has developed business activity in North America, South America and Asia.

Marketing Mineral Real Estate & Mineral Resources
Mineral Lease & Mineral Resource Sale Negotiation
Mineral Lease Management
Monitor Exploration & Mining Activity
Verify Royalty Payments
Develop Real Estate & Mineral Resource Databases, Estimates & Maps
Valuation of Mineral Real Estate & Mineral Resources

Target Price: 0.50

www.minesitesforsale.com

http://www.livetradingnews.com/hot-charts-mjna-pfno-trth-aemc-92961.htm#.UKB9bIcsmh0

http://www.livetradingnews.com/indonesias-mining-mess-a-bonus-for-aemc-pinkaemc-86967.htm#.UHIYRU3Mi88

Trai Thien USA Inc (PINK: TRTH)

Trai Thien USA is a fast-growing Vietnam-based dry bulk shipping company operating a 21,990 DWT fleet comprised of six geared bulk vessels specializing in providing ocean transportation services for raw material input items such as coal, ore, grain, lumber, cement, steel and fertilizer throughout the Southeast Asia region.

After China, the primary sources of future bulk demand are India, Brazil and Vietnam. The region contains three of the four global BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), seen by economists as the future growth leaders in the world economy.

The Asia Pacific region accounts for 60% of the world’s population and almost 70% of world sea-borne trade in bulk commodities.

In order to meet anticipated continued growth in demand from an expanding base of overseas and domestic Vietnamese customers, as well as to expand the geographic regions that it can service to include potentially more profitable routes in East and South Asia.

The Company’s Vietnam-based operations are located in Ho Chi Minh City, which together with the surrounding areas, accounts for more than seventy percent of Vietnam’s total annual cargo traffic.

Pink Sheets: TRTH

Current Price: 0.10

Current PE: 4.0

Revenue Growth: 148%

1 yr Target Price: 1.00

Analysts Rating: Strong Buy

http://www.traithienusa.com   

http://www.livetradingnews.com/hot-charts-mjna-pfno-trth-aemc-92961.htm#.UKB9bIcsmh0

            Red’s Bull Trade Alerts and Option’s Alerts are suitable for Big Cap portfolios

                                          MGM Resorts International NYSE:MGM

Red’s Rules to always play by…

 Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”.

Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns. I use www.stockta.com for my data. Knowledge is Power (and Money)

Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing.

There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10’s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO).

The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge.

As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street’s buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting.

Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they sell for USUS$5 or less a share. 

And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.

Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves.  They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains.

                               Do not think get rich – think get rich slowly; it works.

Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress.

You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free.

Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled.

Again, think “get rich steady” and not “get rich quick” and think Education!

The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80′s.  It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives.

Have a great week, and stay tuned.