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Paul Ebeling on Wall Street…

Friday the markets were up trying to crack the fat Red resistance line at 14,022 on the DJIA for the 4th time showing us that there are stocks that can still move North in here.

But, the overall volume was weak as Bulls and Bears approach their limits.

But, hang on that does not mean that this market cannot run higher in here. Markets that are on good runs can do.

There is money wanting to get in some came in Friday, if it continues buying Monday let positions run. We all know Bull Runs can extend more than the crowd thinks, if this rally extends go with it.

The US Fed money is moving this market. Earnings are still coming but we see the picture clearly now.

The economic data are out the catalysts are few, so market is on its own in here. The bias is to the upside as we enter this week.

The is a lot of Bullishness in the air even after this strong run, a run that has matched the June to September Y 2012 run.

At these levels be prudent, cautious and nimble, that does not mean sell and sit the rest of the move out.

Red’s Bull and Bear Trade
Alerts

Options Trading Alert: Caesars Entertainment Corp NASDAQ:CZR

Profile: Caesars Entertainment Corporation, primarily through its subsidiary, Caesars Entertainment Operating Company, Inc., provides casino entertainment services. Its casino entertainment facilities include land-based casinos, riverboat or dockside casinos, managed casinos, combination greyhound racetrack and casino, combination thoroughbred racetrack and casino, and harness racetrack and casino, as well as hotel and convention space, restaurants, and non-gaming entertainment facilities. The company’s casinos operate primarily under the Harrah’s, Caesars, and Horseshoe brand names. It also owns and operates an online gaming business that provide real money casino, bingo, and poker games under the WSOP and Caesars brands in the United Kingdom; has alliances with online gaming providers in Italy and France; offers ‘play for fun’ casino genre games to residents internationally; and provides social games on Facebook, other social media Websites, and mobile application platforms. In addition, it owns and operates the World Series of Poker tournament and brand; and a golf course on 175 acres of prime real estate through a land concession on the Cotai strip in Macau. As of December 31, 2011, Caesars Entertainment Corporation owned, operated, or managed 52 casinos in the United States, England, Scotland, Canada, Uruguay, Egypt, and South Africa. Its facilities had an aggregate of approximately 3 million square feet of gaming space and approximately 42,000 hotel rooms. The company was formerly known as Harrah’s Entertainment, Inc. and changed its name to Caesars Entertainment Corporation in November 2010. Caesars Entertainment Corporation was founded in Y 1937 and is HQ’d in Las Vegas, Nevada. Caesars Entertainment Corporation is a subsidiary of Hamlet Holdings LLC.

Website: http://www.caesars.com

Headlines: Buyers place their bets on Caesars

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buyers-place-bets-caesars-094758972.html

Caesars Entertainment Corporation contracts traded at a higher rate than usual rate for both Calls and Puts Friday, where a total of 7,263 Call and 6,832 Put contracted. The spread yielded a 0.94 Put/Call Ratio PCR.

Participants use options to manage risk and to speculate on price changes.

Options can provide significant leverage if the stock moves in the right direction, but also end up worthless if it does not.

The PCR is regarded as an indicator of investor sentiment, indicating what experienced participants are doing in preparation for a move of an underlying equity.

A high PCR suggests that the investor sentiment is Bearish and that investors are expecting the underlying stock price to fall.

A low PCR implies that the investor sentiment is Bullish and that investors are expecting the underlying stock price to rise and, unusual volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move.

Caesars Entertainment Corporation opened at 10.32 Friday, the stock price rose 3.84 +38.13% finishing at 13.91.

Friday CZR traded between: 10.26 – 14.25.

The 52 wk Trading Range is: 4.52 – 15.74

Friday’s Volume: 9.3-M/shrs is more than the average 3 month volume of 5.4-M/shrs.

CZR is trading above it 20, 50 and 200-D MAs.

P/E: 0.00

EPS: -10.20

RSI: 85.6

DiviYield: 0.0

The next earnings date: 28 February 2013

Analysts Recommendation: Hold/Buy on Dips

1 yr Price Target Estimate: 16.50

Performance Metrics

Week Month Quarter Half Year Year

+78.10% +90.55% +164.45% +70.67% +0.00%

Recent CandleStick Analysis Neutral

Disclaimer: The material presented in this commentary is provided for informational purposes only and is based upon information that is considered to be reliable. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither Ebeling-Heffernan, www.livetradingnews.com nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or for results obtained from the use of this information. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities or other financial instruments mentioned in this material are not suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in Good Faith, are subject to change without notice. Before acting on any information contained on the website, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.

US Major Markets Preview

Monday there is no Economic data to report.

Tuesday, the January Treasury Budget will be reported at 02.00p EST.

Monday’s earnings reports will continue. CNA Financial NYSE: CNA 31.80, +0.08 and Loews NYSE: L 43.85, +0.11 are scheduled to report their Quarterly earnings ahead of the opening bell.

US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis

Friday Wrap Up, Super Snow Storm Nemo was the focus.

The S&P 500 punctuated a somewhat volatile week by adding 0.6%. Though the benchmark index ended firmly in the Black, the bulk of its advance took place early in the session.

After tapping a session high in at 1518, the index spent the rest of the day in a 2 pt range. While the S&P held its levels, the DJIA followed its morning rally with a partial retreat which was stopped near the middle of its range.

Quiet trade unfolded as snowstorm Nemo shrouded the East Coast with up to 38 inches of Snow.

Forecasts calling for up to 12 ins of Snow in New York, and more than 25 in Boston, the volume came in well below average. The final tally indicated less than 600-M shares changed, light volume, heavy snow, traders ankled the Street for Home.

The broader market was powered by the technology sector.

The SPDR Technology Select Sector ETF NYSEArca: XLK 29.93, +0.26 ended higher by 0.9% with outperformance largely due to relative strength of top components. Apple NASDAQ:AAPL 474.98, +6.76, Google NASDAQ:GOOG 785.37, +11.42, and International Business Machines NYSE: IBM 201.68, +1.94 all rose between 1.0% and 1.5% with Google settling an all-time high.

LinkedIn NASDAQ:LNKD 150.48, +26.39 rose 21.3% after the company’s earnings and revenue beat consensus estimates sending LinkedIn to an all-time high.

Energy stocks outperformed, but the strength came despite no change in the price of Crude Oil. The energy component finished at 95.79 bbl.

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This Week on the Earnings Front in the USA

Earnings season is in full swing, this week will have many big earnings announcements.

All earnings releases for Monday, 11 February 2013

Company Name Time Transcript Wall St EPS Est. ($) Actual EPS

AMER CAP LTD ACAS Before Open N/A 0.25 N/A

AMER FINL GROUP AFG After Market Close N/A 0.65 N/A

AMER SCI & ENG ASEI After Market Close N/A 0.62 N/A

ANNIES INC BNNY After Market Close N/A 0.15 N/A

ARCH CAP GP LTD ACGL After Market Close N/A -0.49 N/A

BOARDWALK PIPLN BWP Before Open N/A 0.39 N/A

BROOKDALE SENR BKD After Market Close N/A -0.07 N/A

CAPSTONE TURBIN CPST After Market Close N/A -0.02 N/A

CHOICE HTL INTL CHH After Market Close N/A 0.41 N/A

CNA FINL CORP CNA Before Open N/A 0.06 N/A

CNO FINL GRP CNO After Market Close N/A 0.23 N/A

COGNEX CORP CGNX After Market Close N/A 0.35 N/A

CUBIC CORP CUB After Market Close N/A 0.70 N/A

CUTERA INC CUTR After Market Close N/A 0.02 N/A

DANAOS CORP DAC After Market Close N/A 0.15 N/A

DUN &BRADST-NEW DNB After Market Close N/A 2.41 N/A

DYNAVOX INC-A DVOX After Market Close N/A 0.01 N/A

FORWARD AIR CRP FWRD After Market Close N/A 0.50 N/A

FULL CIRCLE CAP FULL After Market Close N/A 0.20 N/A

LANDAUER INC LDR After Market Close N/A 0.48 N/A

LIONS GATE ETMT LGF After Market Close N/A 0.24 N/A

LOEWS CORP L Before Open N/A 0.37 N/A

MANNKIND CORP MNKD N/A N/A -0.18 N/A

MASCO MAS After Market Close N/A -0.01 N/A

MEDICAL ACTION MDCI Before Open N/A 0.05 N/A

NIELSEN HOLDNGS NLSN After Market Close N/A 0.57 N/A

NORWEGIAN CRUIS NCLH After Market Close N/A -0.03 N/A

OTTER TAIL CORP OTTR After Market Close N/A 0.30 N/A

OWENS & MINOR OMI After Market Close N/A 0.47 N/A

PARKWAY PPTY PKY After Market Close N/A 0.23 N/A

QUALYS INC QLYS After Market Close N/A 0.05 N/A

RADIAN GRP INC RDN Before Open N/A -0.56 N/A

REXNORD CORP RXN After Market Close N/A 0.20 N/A

SKILLED HLTHCR SKH After Market Close N/A 0.20 N/A

UNILIFE CORP UNIS After Market Close N/A -0.14 N/A

VERSAR INC VSR Before Open N/A 0.10 N/A

WAUSAU PAPER CP WPP Before Open N/A 0.04 N/A

See the complete list here: http://www.morningstar.com/earnings/earnings-calendar.aspx

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This Week on the Economic Front in the USA

Monday, 11 February

None
Tuesday, 12 February

Treasury Budget, January (02:00p): -$2.0-B expected, -$27.4-B past

Wednesday, 13 February

MBA Mortgage Index, 02/09 (7:00a): 3.4% past

Retail Sales, Jan (8:30a): 0.1% expected, 0.5% past

Retail Sales ex-auto, Jan (8:30a): 0.1% expected, 0.3% past

Export Prices ex-agri., Jan (8:30a): -0.2% past

Import Prices ex-oil, Jan (8:30a): -0.1% past

Business Inventories, Dec (10:00a): 0.3% expected, 0.3% past

Crude Oil Inventories, 02/09 (10:30a): 2.623M past

Thursday, 14 February

Initial Claims, 02/09 (8:30a): 365-K expected, 366-K past

Continuing Claims, 02/02 (8:30a): 3200-K expected, 3224-K past

Nat Gas Inventories, 02/09 (10:30a)

Friday, 15 February

Empire Manufacturing, Feb (8:30a): 0.0 expected, -7.8 past

Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Dec (9:00a): $52.3-B past

Industrial Production, Jan (9:15a): 0.2% expected, 0.3% past

Capacity Utilization, Jan (9:15a): 78.9% expected, 78.8% past

Michigan Sentiment Indicator, Feb (9:55a): 73.5 expected, 73.8 past

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The Most Asked Question Last Week

The Big Q: Red, which country is the world’s largest trading nation?

The Big A: China is now the world’s largest t trading nation, US # 2.

China surpassed the US to become the world’s biggest trading nation in Y 2012 as measured by the sum of exports and imports, a milestone in the Asian nation’s challenge to the US dominance in global commerce that emerged after the end of World War II in Y 1945.

US exports and imports last year totaled $3.82-T, the US Commerce Department said last week. China’s customs administration reported last month that the country’s total trade in Y 2012 amounted to $3.87-T. China had a $231.1-B annual trade surplus while the US had a trade deficit of $727.9-B.

China’s emergence as the biggest global trading nation gives it increasing influence, threatening to disrupt regional trading blocs as it becomes the most important commercial partner for countries including Germany, which will export twice as much to China by the end of the decade as it does to neighboring France, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s NYSE:GS, Jim O’Neill.

“For so many countries around the world, China is becoming rapidly the most important bilateral trade partner,” Mr. O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs’s asset management division and the economist who bound Brazil to Russia, India and China to form the BRIC investing strategy, said in a telephone interview. “At this kind of pace by the end of the decade many European countries will be doing more individual trade with China than with bi-lateral partners in Europe.”

Still, the US economy is more than double the size of China’s, according to the World Bank. In Y 2011, the US gross domestic product reached $15-T while China’s totaled $7.3-T.

The US emerged as the preeminent trading power following World War II as it spearheaded the creation of the global trade and financial architecture and the UK began dismantling its colonial empire. China began focusing on trade and foreign investment to boost its economy after decades of isolation under Chairman Mao Zedong. Economic growth averaged 9.9% a year from Y 1978 through Y 2012.

China became the world’s biggest exporter in Y 2009, while the US remains the biggest importer, taking in $2.28-T in goods last year compared with China’s $1.82-T of imports.

HSBC Holdings Plc NYSE: HBC forecast last year that China would overtake the US as the top trading nation by Y 2016.
China was last considered the leading economy during the height of the Qing Dynasty. The difference is that in the 18th century, the Qing Empire unlike rising Britain did not focus on trade.

The Emperor Qianlong told King George III in a Y 1793 letter that “we possess all things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and I have no use for your country’s manufactures.”

While China is the biggest energy user, has the world’s biggest car market and the world’s largest foreign currency reserves, a significant portion of China’s trade involves importing raw materials and parts to be assembled into finished products and re-exported, an activity that provides “only modest value added,” Eswar Prasad, a former International Monetary Fund official who is now a professor at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, said.

Last month China’s trade expanded more than estimated, with exports rising 25% from a year earlier and imports increasing 28.8%, government data released yesterday showed. China’s trade figures in January and February are distorted by the week-long Lunar New Year Holiday that fell in January of last year and started yesterday.

Economists from banks including UBS AG and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. PINK:ANZBY recently questioned the veracity of China’s export data after the customs administration reported an unexpected 14.1% export gain in December.

The General Administration of Customs defended the data last month, saying all statistics are based on actual customs declarations, and the Ministry of Commerce said the jump was caused by exporters who hurried shipments before a waiver of inspection fees expired at the end of the month.

The US bi-lateral trade deficit with China, which peaked in Y 2012, could remain a “flashpoint” of tension between the 2 countries, Mr. Prasad said.
“This trade imbalance is not representative of the amount of goods actually produced in China and exported to the U.S., but this perspective tends to get lost amidst the heated political rhetoric in the US,” said Mr. Prasad.
According to Mr. O’Neill, the trade figures underscore the need to draw China further into the global financial and trading architecture that the US helped create.

“One way or another we have to get China more involved in the global organizations of today and the future despite some of their own reluctance,” O’Neill said, mentioning China’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights currency basket. “To not have China more symbolically and more importantly actually central to all these things is just increasingly silly.”

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

PS: We here at LTN are focused on natural resources, agriculture, the Singapore $, and quality stocks that offer steady returns and high dividends, we call them Aristocrat Stocks (and the events that shape the market prices) and profile them weekly on www.livetradingnews.com . They are not priced to make investors a fortune, but they are priced to give approximately 4 to 5% real return on capital, that beat the bank deposit rates soundly and risk is avoided. Pay attention and Cheer up.

Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!

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Red’s Edge and in the Trenches

Reflect and Resolve to Make Money

 The area that I believe to be of great importance to those of us who have a keen interest in trading markets is how to better Play the Game of trading and investing.

The 1st thing to do, IMO, is to reflect on what was done last year and how well it was done. I believe it will be the common denominator that some stuff was done well and some not so well. That said it would be a good plan to work to be better at what was not done so well in this New Year.

Looking into the past may be helpful to put together Resolutions that will bring positive changes that bode well for future action in the markets, in order to set up for continuing success.

The common areas that most all traders/players work on to improve in order to continuously post good Percentage and Money records are:

1. Formulate a Trading Plan for their business; this is a business, though many of refer to it as a Game.

2. Follow and fine-tune the Trading Plan along the way.

3. Learn to Cut Losses

4. Stop Cutting Profits

5. Manage your money; remember Your Money and Your Responsibility.

6. Education, Education and more Education, Knowledge is Power.

7. Last but not least are; never enter a position without a Way Out (aka Exit Strategy)

Lumped into 1 Key Trader/Player Resolution and followed will likely lead to improved trading results.

That said, always strive to do your best, use the best tools, be patient with yourself and be happy.

Each new day comes with new opportunities, challenges, and changes.

All the best,

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

PS: if you look at yourself as a player/trader, and you like doing it, then it is Key to understand what makes you “tick”; plus it is very helpful to understand the motivations for your actions and their timing in the entering and exiting positions. It is very important to strive to remove the emotion and focus on the business of trading the markets to win. When you acquire the discipline and the tools to remove the emotion you are on the way to winning and perhaps winning Big. PE

To succeed in trading, a Player needs Knowledge; Gain it and use it wisely

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The Key to Stock Market Understanding

We all know that markets and stocks go up and they go down. Players will have winning trades and losing trades.

Individual trades do not determine if a trader is a success or failure. A losing trade can be a successful trade if the trader has followed the disciplined Plan and cut a loss timely.

So, that being said, and knowing that there will be times of drawdown for even the best trader, how is success measured in this business?

Well, one way is to go back and look at steps along the path that brought you to trading. This will likely help you understand how well you are doing.

Example: one of the first steps along the path to trading success was your learning how to use the computer, a basic skill that makes the work easier, faster and hopefully better, and it follows that improvements made in the steps along the path would likely improve overall success.

Next is, have you completed and do you use a well-defined and controlled trading plan? And have you learned strategies to trade up down or sideways markets? Have you developed an exit strategy, whether you have a discipline to cut losses-whether you are dedicating time to education through reading, or seminars and/or have you structured your time to permit regularly attending to the business of trading? Hopefully you are getting more knowledgeable, as knowledge is Key.

So, then take the time to look back from where you are now, so you can analyze the steps that you have taken so far, looking at what you have done you can see what you have not done as well and that may lead you to improve our trading.

You might look back and see that you have closed losing positions only after losses have mounted to the point where you feel hopeless.

That revelation could lead you to establishing a more disciplined exit strategy. Instead of waiting for hopeless, instead decide to use the reversal of some indicator, or the break through a moving average as a more disciplined way to cut losses more quickly and more efficiently. I tell people this all the time when they call to ask.

So, if you are not satisfied with your trading, look and see what actions can be improved going forward?

Success is not static and can become better than you ever thought when you are willing to examine how you got where you are, with a look to how you can make the necessary changes to get where you want to be.

Again, there are many ways to make and lose money in the markets. It is clearly worthwhile to learn how to make money and how to reduce or avoid losses if one is going to venture into this game.

For if you are not armed with Knowledge, it is better to forget the possibility of financial gain in the markets and simply live life on the sidelines. The risks for the ignorant are huge, and in this action, Ignorance is not bliss.

Safety

Safety is an illusion. You have all heard and experienced that, ask yourself, Is it safe to walk down steps, take a walk, cross the street, drive your car, sail your boat, swim in the ocean, fly your plane, ski and scuba dive, etc, etc, etc. So it is fair to say that it is not likely to have complete safety in life.

In the investment world, highly rated bonds were considered safe in the past, but that has been proved not necessarily so.

In the world of stock trading, safety is established with the exit strategy, and like most safety, it is imperfect at best. But it does work pretty well if you have established a good plan. And as a player/trader, you must begin with a clear understanding what is adequate safety for you. This column talks about the “Plan” throughout the year, Plan Your Work and Work Your Plan is a recurring theme here. It is your money, so for sure it is your responsibility.

Knowledge of Yourself -Your Plan is very helpful, and is used by professional traders to help them Win in a game where most lose. Knowledge is Power!

Again, the Reminder on Risk

Risk is everywhere including trading the markets; you must learn to manage risk.

When you seek profits in trading markets there is a certain factor that creeps in; it is the “Greed” factor; then come the Risk factors that give rise to the Fear factor in trading.

Likely, many bad trades are the results of a misunderstanding of/or an initial failure to pay attention to risk.

Once that risk becomes real for many folks, it can turn into fear and panic. Risk means we can lose something we have, and often, traders fail to realize just how much is at risk until it is too late for them

One of the most compelling facts regarding risk of loss in the market is that if a position loses 50%, it must then double, i.e. move up 100% to get back to even.

It is important to note that risk in the buying of stock in the market is one of the riskiest things on the planet.

When buying a stock, the total investment is at risk. And as we have seen recently, formerly great companies can fall to Zero.

You ask: Red, Are there ways to reduce the risk of losing my entire investment when buying stocks?

Sure, we have discussed them in previous articles. One is employ stop loss orders in place or trailing stop loss orders.

In most situations, these orders can work to prevent losing everything. It is unlikely that a stock will drop from USUS$50 to US$ Zero overnight, and most stocks that fail often post warning signs; and while they often fall fast, they usually take a bit of time to hit Zero bottom. In such circumstances, the stop loss may work to preserve capital.

Here is another way to protect an asset (some of us call it Insurance). That is to buy a protective Put. A Put option is a contract whereby the buyer of the Put has the right, but not the obligation, to force someone to buy his stock at a pre-determined price, called the strike price, any time before the option expires.

To obtain that right, the buyer of a Put pays a premium. The situation is at least analogous to an insurance policy where the insured (stock owner) pays a premium in order to assure that a loss is limited to the premium, plus any deductible.

You can learn about managing risk with options, but the major risk in options strategies is that options expire, so your puts and calls only have value until expiration; and assuming no change in the price of the stock, the call becomes less and less valuable as time passes, until there is no time left. Insurance…

Another thought that is often espoused is to diversify. There are differing schools of thought regarding diversification and there are many ways to diversify.

The above discussion lists some of the ways traders reduce and manage risk in a stock purchase transaction.

All of the above is intended to motivate you to seek a greater understanding of Risk and in doing so help you Win.

Again, think Education First.

For news and information please go to www.livetradingnews.com, www.paulebeling.com and www.ebeling-heffernan.com , www.aseanaffairs.com sign up for RSS feeds on the latest US Market News, ASEAN and World News, Twitter, and the Hot List, it’s Free, and now on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Live-Trading-News/193639810672419

My pal Wally Stein’s Words of Wisdom

Buy Low, Sell High or at least in the Middle; that’s Wally’s Lullaby

Sooner or later, those who win are those who believe they can!

Red’s Favorite Quote from last Week: “The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” - Winston Churchill

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Hot Topics

See all of the Latest World News on www.livetradingnews.com up-dated hourly 24/7

In View: Strong USD Could Cause Next Global Financial Crisis

As the US economy recovers, a strengthening USD could cause the next financial crisis, warns Singapore-based economist Andy Xie.

“The first dollar bull market in the 1980s triggered the Latin American debt crisis, the second the Asian Financial Crisis. Neither was a coincidence,” Xie writes for Caixin Online, a website specializing in China’s financial and business news.

When the Greenback is in a Bear Market, liquidity flows into emerging markets, causing their currencies and asset prices to appreciate, which supports domestic demand.

“When the dollar changes direction, so does liquidity,” according to Xie, a former Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS economist who predicted the economic bubbles like the 1997 Asian financial crisis and dot-com bubble.

“The virtuous cycle on the way up becomes a vicious one on the way down. The emerging economies already suffer inflation. The liquidity outflow leads to currency depreciation, which worsens inflation.”

When the dollar’s value falls, dollar debt tends to rise in emerging markets, as the weak USD lowers debt service and encourages over borrowing. But when the USD reverses course and strengthens, the debt burden becomes unsustainable.

“Hence, no lenders want to roll over the loans anymore,” Xie explains. “A liquidity crisis ensues. This is what occurred in Latin America in the 1980s and Southeast Asia in the 1990s.”

The BRIC countries; Brazil, Russia, India and China are bubbles ready to pop, he warns.

“Whenever there is a hot concept like BRIC, there is a bubble. There has never been an exception,” Xie writes. “The BRIC countries exhibit all the symptoms of binging on cheap credit: high levels of indebtedness, inflation and strong currencies.”

The BRIC countries have seen inflows of foreign capital dissipate, and they are much like Southeast Asian countries just before the Y 1996 crisis. A wrong policy move could prompt a “full-blown financial crisis.” The right move for the BRICs is to raise interest rates to tighten money supply now.

Do not count on that, they seem more interested in sustaining short-term growth, Xie says. “Some emerging market turbulence is quite likely within the next 24 months.” Emerging markets like the BRICs, fueled by Hot Money from abroad, are bubbles waiting to collapse .

“Global investors, seeking to diversify away from the post-bubble heavily-indebted Western world, have inadvertently created a massive ‘hot-money’ bubble in emerging market nations, causing overheated economies and property bubbles everywhere from Brazil to Israel to the Philippines,” he says.

BRICS Watch: China, vehicle sales jump 45.4% in January

China’s passenger vehicle sales in January surged more than 45% from a year earlier, the largest Y-Y growth since April 2010, indicating the sector is shifting gear back into high-speed growth after a 2 yr slowdown.

A total of 1,704,185 cars, sport utility vehicles, multi-purpose vehicles and minivans were delivered in the nation in January, up 45.4% over January last year and a 9.2% increase from the previous month, the China Passenger Car Association said Friday.

“Such high growth was a result of five more working days in January and more than 10 days of a slack market in January last year due to an early Spring Festival,” said Rao Da, secretary-general of the association. “The rebound in the national economy also supported vehicle purchases.”

He added that it would be reasonable to expect a more than 35% M-M fall in sales growth in February, as the approaching week-long Spring Festival Holiday reduces working time this month by 5 days.

However, he pointed out that combined sales in the 1st 2 months of Y 2013 are likely to see growth rise by 25% Y-Y.

“The downturn since the government withdrew stimulus measures at the end of Y 2010 has ended. The passenger vehicle market is returning to high-speed growth,” said Rao.

General Motors NYSE: GM, the largest foreign automaker in China in terms of sales, said last Tuesday that January was the 1st month in which it and its joint ventures sold more than 300,000 vehicles in a single month, an increase of 26% Y-Y.

US automaker Ford Motor Co’s NYSE:F passenger vehicle sales rose 135% to 44,439, also reaching a record high for January

The 3 Japanese automakers, Toyota NYSE: TM, Honda NYSE: HMC and Nissan PINK:NSANY, whose sales were seriously hit by Chinese consumers’ avoiding Japanese products amid rising anger over Tokyo’s illegal “purchase” of China’s Diaoyu Islands, all saw their sales rise around 20% in January after sharp declines for 4 months.

Although dealers’ inventories dipped slightly for four consecutive months, the fast-increasing sales made the China Automobile Dealers Association declare a red alert over an inventory rebound after Spring Festival.

According to the Vehicle Inventory Alert Index the association released this week, in January, the alert index gained 0.9% to 45.26%, warning dealers to pay attention to a growing inventory.

“As automakers all readjusted their sales targets last year amid a market slowdown, the inventory at dealers were eased at the end of Y 2012. However, a sharp reduction in sales in February from January due to fewer working days brings the high risk of inventories accumulating after the holiday,” said Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the association.

According to the association’s survey of more than 1,000 automobile dealers covering 50 major vehicle brands across the country, due to the Spring Festival Holiday, most dealers expect business to worsen in February.

“Dealers and automakers should take measures to cope with the sharp drop in vehicle demand after the holiday, in a bid to avoid the inventory rebound,” said Luo.

ASEAN Watch: Cambodia seen as “best” investment venue for Thai’s

Cambodia is considered “the most promising country” in the ASEAN community where Thai business entrepreneurs could set up trade and investment projects, according to a noted Thai academic and economist.

Roongrote Benjamasuthin, director of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce’s ASEAN Business & Economic Center, has said that Thais transnational conglomerates and small- and medium-sized entrepreneurs now look on Cambodia as “the most promising” site for their projects and could help usher in the birth of an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by Y 2015.

The economist said that a wide range of business opportunities are open to Thai businessmen only if they have enough venture capital at their disposal.

“We should take advantage of the geographical proximity between Thailand and Cambodia while the Thai government has planned to build and expand roads and railways to link the two neighboring countries. Part of these infrastructures would be serviceable when the AEC finally takes off in the next few years,” Roongrote said.

Though a variety of businesses are already being run by the Thais inside Cambodia, others were advised to follow suit and take advantage of the country with a population of 15 million, according to Roongrote.

According to Roongrote, Thai products, ranging from consumer items such as soap, toothpaste and shampoo, clothes, shoes and electrical appliances, have firmly secured the Cambodian market in addition to Thai fresh fruits and instant foods.

The economist advised Thai investors to look for Cambodian business partners so that they could get things done more easily and promptly.

“The Thai brand names of varied products have remained preferable to the Cambodians who have not had manufacturing factories of their own as yet. The Thais could continue to transport the goods from Thailand to Cambodia to penetrate new markets and expand the existing ones until the AEC opens in Y 2015,” Roongrote said.

Thai investors could also open garment factories and rice mills, among other industries, in the neighboring country, he said.

One advantage of doing business in Cambodia, Roongrote said, is its cheap labor. Cambodia’s daily wage of 200 baht, US$6.6, is considerably lower than the 300 baht, US$10, in Thailand.

Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has announced that Thailand would help the Cambodian government headed by Prime Minister Hun Sen in expanding its road and railway network inside the Indochinese country to help push the inter-connectivity scheme within the ASEAN bloc.

Unresolved disputes over strips of land along the shared border notwithstanding, Bangkok has offered to co-invest with Phnom Penh in the exploring and producing of oil and natural gas in Cambodian maritime territory in the Gulf of Thailand.

The Yingluck government has also urged the Thai private sector to invest in infrastructure and manufacturing projects inside Myanmar, now that it has reopened its door to the world community following decades of self-isolation under military rule.

US Watch: Obama’s Nominee for US Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew Will be Challenged Over Caymans Investment

Jack Lew, US President Obama’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, had an investment in a Cayman Islands fund located in a building known as home for offshore tax havens that President Obama criticized in his Y 2008 campaign.

Mr. Lew will be asked about his investment in a Citigroup Inc. NYSE:C fund during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee on 13 February, Senator Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican, said Friday.

Mr. Lew had between $50,001 and $100,000 in the fund, according to a Y 2009 financial disclosure form. The fund was located in a building known as Ugland House, according to SEC filings released by Mr. Grassley.

Mr. Lew, Obama’s former chief of staff, and head of the Office of Management and Budget OMB, was a Citigroup executive before joining the Obama administration in Y 2009.

White House spokesman Eric Schultz said that Mr. Lew’s investment in the Cayman Islands fund is “not news to the Senate,” as it had been disclosed in previous confirmation proceedings for other administration positions.

“Jack Lew paid all of his taxes and reported all of the income, gains and losses from the investment on his tax returns,” Mr. Schultz said in a statement. “He played no role in creating, managing or operating the fund and he sold his investment in 2010 at a net loss.”

Ugland House is an office building on South Church Street in the Caymans, it served as the official address for 18,857 corporations as of March 2008, according to a US Government Accountability Office study published that year. About 50% those Cayman companies had billing addresses in the US, according to the study.

In January 2008, presidential candidate Obama referred to a building in the Cayman Islands that is “either the biggest building or the biggest tax scam on record.”

During the Y 2012 presidential race, Mr. Obama’s campaign released an ad in July accusing Republican challenger Mitt Romney of outsourcing jobs and stashing his money in overseas accounts. Mr. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor who made his fortune as a private-equity executive, last year reported holdings that included investments in the Cayman Islands.

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At the Movies with Monica Petrucci

Domestic Box Office Report: ‘Identity Thief’ at #1 takes $36.6-M

The R-rated comedy beats expectations despite Nemo, the Super Snow Storm, in the Northeast; Steven Soderbergh’s “Side Effects” Opens # 3 takes $9.4-M, while “Argo” back strong in its 18th frame.

Melissa McCarthy’s new comedy Identity Thief, co-starring Jason Bateman and directed by Seth Gordon, beat all expectations to score a $36.6-M debut, one of the Top 5 openings of all time for an original R-rated comedy and the best opening so far of Y 2013, beating the $28-M scored four weeks ago by fellow Universal pic Mama.

Universal estimates that Nemo, the Winter storm that paralyzed New England, took 10% off the box office grosses and that without Nemo, Identity Thief would have cleared $40-M. The pic marks Ms. McCarthy’s first starring role since Bridesmaids.

Receiving a B CinemaScore, Identity Thief stars Bateman as a guy whose identity is stolen by a woman Ms. McCarthy. Mr. Bateman originally pitched producer Scott Stuber on the idea of the 2 leading characters being men, but after seeing McCarthy in Bridesmaids, they adapted the role for her.

The comedy’s supporting cast includes Amanda Peet, Jon Favreau and Tip “T.I.” Harris. Elliot Inc. co-financed the $35-M film with Universal.

Even with the success of Identity Thief, the overall box office revenues were down 45% from the same weekend last year when The Vow debuted to $41.2-M and Safe House, took in $40.2-M.

Also opening Friday was Steven Soderbergh’s independently financed Side Effects, starring Rooney Mara and Channing Tatum. The psychological thriller opened to $10-M, in line with expectations, it too received a B CinemaScore.

Open Road Films is distributing Side Effects, the film explores the perils of anti-depressants and the pharmaceutical industry. Jude Law and Catherine Zeta-Jones also star. Next week, the film, Soderbergh claims to be his last makes its international debut at the Berlin International Film Festival.

Side Effects came in # 3 after Identity Thief and Warm Bodies, which fell a relatively narrow 44% in its 2nd weekend, grossing $11.5-M for a domestic take of $36.7-M.

Silver Linings Playbook continued to enjoy an impressive hold, coming in # 4 and falling only 11% from the previous weekend. The Oscar Best Picture contender, from The Weinstein Co., has now earned $90-M.

Among other best picture nominees, Argo made news in its 18th wk in release, grossing $2.5-M to reclaim a spot in the Top 10. The film, coming in # 8, has grossed $123.7-M in North America.

Debuting in 300 IMAX locations across the country was Paramount’s Top Gun 3-D. The classic Tom Cruise pic, directed by the late Tony Scott, grossed a respectable $1.9-M for a location average of $6,333.

The Chinese blockbuster Lost in Thailand did not do well in its US debut, grossing just $29,143 from 29 AMC theaters across the country, AMC Entertainment is now owned by Chinese conglomerate Wanda. Lost in Thailand has grossed nearly $200-M in China.

Have some fun, see a movie this week.

All the best,

Monica Petrucci from Tinsel Town

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US Major Market: Support and Resistance

DJIA Close:13,992.97

Resistance

14,022 from the Jul 2007 high

Support

The 10-Day EMA:13,917

The 20-D ay EMA: 13,795

13,692 from the Jun 2007 high

13,668 from the Dec 2007 high

13662 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

13,653 the Sept 2012 high
The 50-Day EMA: 13,540

13,413 from a Sept 2012 low

13,331 is the Aug 2012 high

13,297 the Apr 2012 high

The 200-D ay SMA:13,098

13,058 the May 2008 high

13,056 the Feb 2012 high

12,716 the Apr 2012 closing low

S&P 500 Close: 1,517.93

Resistance:

1539 from Jun 2007

Support

1499 from Jan 2008

The 20-Day EMA: 1494

1475 the Sept 2012 high

1471 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

The 50-Day EMA: 1467

1466 the Sept 2012 high

1440 from the Nov 2007 closing low

1434 from Nov 2012

1433 from the Aug 2007 closing low

1427 the Aug 2012 high

1425 the Oct 2012 low

1408 the late Oct 2012 range closing low

1406 a May 2012 high

The 200-Day SMA: 1403

1400 the closing low from Aug 2012 consolidation

1378 the Feb 2012 high

NAS Close: 3193.87

Resistance

3197 the Sept 2012 high

3227 the Apr 2000 intra-day low

3401 the May 2000 closing low

Support

3171 the Oct 2012 intra-day high

The 20-Day EMA: 3142

3134 the Mar 2012 high

3112 a mid-Oct 2012 high.

3101 the Aug 2012 high

The 50-D ay EMA: 3094

3083 the uptrend line at 3091

3090 the mid-Mar 2012 interim high

3076 from the Jan 2013 low

3062 the Dec 2012 high

3042 from the May 2000 low

3024 the Gap open point early May 2012

The 200-Day SMA: 3001

3000 the Feb 2012 high

2999 the bottom of the Aug 2012 consolidation

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US Major Market Sentiment: the Bulls Vs the Bears

Sentiment Indicators

VIX: 13.02; -0.48

VXN: 14.14; -0.63

VXO: 12.44; -0.44

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.9; -0.13

Bulls Vs Bears

The Bulls are Up, the Bears are Down, both past the last higher high and lower low hit in September, remember back then, the market corrected, may do again, let’s see.

The Bulls are at 54.7% Vs 54.3% last besting the September 2012 mark, when it hit that mark last time the SP500 corrected 9% over the next 2months.

For your reference: 35% is the mark that suggests Bullishness, to be really Bearish it needs to get up to the 60 to 65% mark.

The Bears are at 21.1% Vs 22.3% last. When the 35% it is a good upside indicator.

For your reference: Bearishness hit a 5 yr high in the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took Bearish sentiment over highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment for sure.

NB: Watching the VIX. It always tells us when we are moving back to a more rational market. *The VIX measures the volatility of the market. A recent news story described it as “the options market’s gauge of investor fear.” Traders use VIX as a general inverse indicator of market volatility and sentiment. High numbers mean that there’s excess bearishness, and low numbers indicate excess bullishness. The VIX is updated intra-day by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) bid/ask quotes. It was created in 19**The CBOE NAS Volatility Index (VXN) employs the same formula used to calculate US$VIX, which is based on the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. This formula is derived from a basket of put and call options. Some are out of the money, some in the money, and some at the money. The resulting US$VXN represents the implied volatility of a hypothetical 30-day option that is at the money.

***The VXO is the ticker created to track the “original VIX” that was calculated using the prices of S&P 100 options. The new VIX uses the ticker US$VIX and is calculated using the prices of S&P 500 options. The fundamental nature of the VXO is the same as the VIX, but it is less robust and not as simple as the VIX.

Focus on Fx, the EUR/USD Pair

EUR/USD Consolidating around 1.34, New Channel Support

Falling channel: After falling sharply during the 7 February session, the EUR/USD found support just under 1.34.

This price action forms a falling channel as it bounces from the falling support seen in the 1-H chart.

During the 8 February session so far, EUR/USD is consolidating around the 1.34 Handle in what appears to be a flag pattern in here.

The 1H RSI is coming back up, and if the market is Bearish, it should hold under 60.

Price action in the short-term is now Bearish, unless there is a break above the falling channel and above the 200-hr SMA which is at 1.3540 at the moment.

With the short-term Bearish trend developing, there is further room to fall in this bearish overall correction against a rally since July as seen in the daily chart.

The Bearish outlook for now should be limited to 1.3160, which is a Support/Resistance pivot reinforced by a rising trend line. Stay tuned…

EUR/USD Pair

EUR/USD Consolidating around 1.34, New Channel Support

Falling channel: After falling sharply during the 7 February session, the EUR/USD found support just under 1.34.

This price action forms a falling channel as it bounces from the falling support seen in the 1-H chart.

During the 8 February session so far, EUR/USD is consolidating around the 1.34 Handle in what appears to be a flag pattern in here.

The 1H RSI is coming back up, and if the market is Bearish, it should hold under 60.

Price action in the short-term is now Bearish, unless there is a break above the falling channel and above the 200-hr SMA which is at 1.3540 at the moment.

With the short-term Bearish trend developing, there is further room to fall in this bearish overall correction against a rally since July as seen in the daily chart.

The Bearish outlook for now should be limited to 1.3160, which is a Support/Resistance pivot reinforced by a rising trend line. Stay tuned…

Focus on Precious Metals and Energy

Gold faces Hard Technical Obstacle

Gold prices traded lower by 0.32% against the USD in the 24 hr period Friday, at 1672.35 oz, as the USD strengthened.

In the Asian session, Gold is traded at 1671.15, marginally lower from Thursday’s close.

Gold is expected to find 1st support at 1662.35, and a fall through could take it to the next support level at 1653.55.

Gold is expected to find its 1st resistance at 1681.55, and a crack through it could take it to the next resistance level at 1691.95.

The precious Yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

The pivotal resistance at 1685.00 continued to act as a hard technical obstacle preventing Bulls from taking Gold higher.

The daily closing was achieved again below SMA 50 and also below SMA 20. The Bearishness is in favor over intra-day basis but not before beating the support of 1663.00; whilst 1695.00 should act as a ceiling for Bears.

Support: 1666.00, 1660.00, 1653.00, 1647.00, 1642.00
Resistance: 1675.00, 1680.00, 1685.00, 1695.00, 1703

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, LTN recommends selling Gold below 1633.00 targeting 1625.00. Stop loss above 1695.00

Silver, Trading Below Its MAs

Silver prices declined 1.04% to the 31.52 Friday as demand for the industrial metal decreased post gains recorded by the USD.

In the Asian session Silver traded at 31.47, 0.14% lower from Thursday’s close.

Silver is expected to find 1st support at 31.21, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 30.95.

Silver is expected to find its 1st resistance at 31.83, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level at 32.18.

The precious White metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Support: 31.10, 30.70, 30.45, 30.10, 29.75
Resistance: 31.80, 32.20, 32.50, 33.00, 33.40

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, LTN recommend selling Silver below 31.80 targeting 29.75. Stop loss above 32.50.

Crude Oil

Last week Crude Oil dipped to test 95.00 level, just above the 2nd and full target at 94.95, to rebound sharply. Now monitor price action around 97.00 resistance mark, as if it break again above it we could see another run towards 98.00. The bias is Neutral awaiting further confirmations.

Support: 96.50, 96.00, 95.40, 94.95, 94.70

Resistance: 97.00, 97.30, 98.00, 98.50, 99.00

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, LTN is Neutral awaiting a signal.

LTN Hot List

The LTN “Hot List” contains potential investment opportunities suitable small, mini and micro cap portfolios.

American Estates Management Company PINK: AEMC is an Oil and Gas exploration company that offers the following 3 Key attributes:

1. We have targeted a number a very large acreage position with 100% working interest and good net revenue interest and operations.
   

2. We are targeting very large conventional and unconventional resources.
   

AEMC has an experienced advisory team with a proven company building track record.

There is tremendous fuel switching going on from coal to natural gas and from diesel to natural gas. We think it is possible that we will see a 20% increase in demand for natural gas over the next few years, which should allow prices to rise to over $5/mcf.

That being said, we are striving to be the low cost producer in all of our plays. This is accomplished by drilling targets at reasonable depths and on acreage that has good metrics. In most of our plays we are the 1st mover, which affords us better entry costs, higher margins and access to the best lands.

While we are focused primarily on crude oil, our natural gas projects should allow us to be the low cost producer with lifting costs significantly below the large, deep, shale gas plays that are dominating the market today.

These three attributes provide a diversified mix of Oil and Gas exploration targets, with tremendous upside potential guided by an experienced and proven management team.

We expect to move forward with our first acquisition in March.

For a new and small company we have a set our aim on acreage positions in areas where we have 100% control over where we drill, how we drill and when we drill. We feel this is important to be able to effectively bring our resource base into production most efficiently.

1 yr Target Price Estimate: 1.50/shr

Trai Thien USA Inc (PINK: TRTH)

Trai Thien USA is a fast-growing Vietnam-based dry bulk shipping company operating a 21,990 DWT fleet comprised of six geared bulk vessels specializing in providing ocean transportation services for raw material input items such as coal, ore, grain, lumber, cement, steel and fertilizer throughout the Southeast Asia region.

After China, the primary sources of future bulk demand are India, Brazil and Vietnam. The region contains three of the four global BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China), seen by economists as the future growth leaders in the world economy.

The Asia Pacific region accounts for 60% of the world’s population and almost 70% of world sea-borne trade in bulk commodities.

In order to meet anticipated continued growth in demand from an expanding base of overseas and domestic Vietnamese customers, as well as to expand the geographic regions that it can service to include potentially more profitable routes in East and South Asia.

The Company’s Vietnam-based operations are located in Ho Chi Minh City, which together with the surrounding areas, accounts for more than seventy percent of Vietnam’s total annual cargo traffic.

Pink Sheets: TRTH

Current Price: 0.14

Current PE: 4.0

Revenue Growth: 148%

1 yr Target Price: 1.00

Analysts Rating: Strong Buy

http://www.traithienusa.com

http://www.livetradingnews.com/hot-charts-mjna-pfno-trth-aemc-92961.htm#.UKB9bIcsmh0

Red’s Bull Trade Alerts and Option’s Alerts are suitable for Big Cap portfolios

Caesars Entertainment Corp NASDAQ:CZR

See them daily at www.liveradingnews.com

Red’s Rules to always play by…

Do what they do on Wall St. and not what they say; that means tune out the “Noise”.

Some folks like to buy stocks because they are upgraded, or sell stocks because they are downgraded; that’s the wrong approach. Learn how to evaluate stocks for yourself. It is not a difficult process; the steps are 1) check the volume for a buying or selling patterns, 2) recognize support and resistance levels and utilizing key charting patterns.

Over my 30+ yrs playing the stock market in earnest, I have learned that there are winning stocks that most traders and investors completely ignore and abhor. And when played right, these overly unappreciated issues often lead to huge gains, but it is all about timing.

There is no mystery here; you all know and/or have heard about “penny stocks” i.e. those that trade under USUS$5.00/shr on US markets (10′s of thousands of stocks trade on other world markets under USUS$5.00/shr and are not referred to in the same pejorative manner). This is just a label (designed to diminish their value and keep you away, IMO).

The fact is that there are many, many studies made over the years that prove that these stocks outperform the overall market, and when there is a steady new Bull Market, the little stocks (small caps, micro and mini caps) lead the Charge.

As a class, they are the most undiscovered and underappreciated sector of stocks and the sector where the biggest chance ends up big winners on a consistent basis. I call them Little Gems; they are indeed Wall Street’s buried treasure for those who wish to go treasure hunting.

Here, in the RedRoadmaster, I work to uncover solid, moneymaking companies whose shares are grossly undervalued and virtually undiscovered, and they
sell for USUS$5 or less a share. 

And do not forget to always include some small, mini and micro cap (pennies and juniors) sues in your sights; they can give you explosive percentage returns like no others.

Savvy traders do not wait for the stock market to hit bottom, recover or get toppy; they do not double down or resort to tricky, desperation moves. They make simple moves on good data and bank some gains.

Do not think get rich – think get rich slowly; it works.

Even if you know absolutely nothing about how to start making a living in the stock market, and want to learn how to do it, the first step is to learn from someone who knows how to do it successfully. The stock market is about success, and the lifestyle that comes with it, but it must be done carefully, both by picking the issues and in the trading of them, because one wants to make money doing it independently and without stress.

You can’t reverse your “bad plays”. Breathe through your nose, count to 10 and move ahead. Go forward, and only focus on what the opportunities are in front of you to win in the stock market game. You do not live in the scrapbook, and always take what the market gives.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step (Confucius); Download and read and study “Knowledge is Power,” my e-Book, its Free.

Always remember that we look at the risk first and decide how to manage it before ever entering a position. Yes, losses will be incurred; it is part of this and any business, and not a bad thing if they are controlled.

Again, think “get rich steady” and not “get rich quick” and think Education!

The Bull is charging, and this perhaps this the best investing scenario since the early 80′s.  It is happening now and savvy players and investors are positioned and in the action. Remember to always be nimble and take what the market gives.