February 04, 2012 -- Updated April 15, 2010 10:46 HKT
Paul Ebeling on Apple, Inc (APPL), Citigroup, Inc.(C), McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), and Visa, Inc. (V)
US stocks clocked a 5th straight day of gains Wednesday and the S&P 500 pushed past 1,200 for the 1st time in 18 months.
JPMorgan was the top percentage gainer on the Dow, up 4% to US$47.73, followed by Bank of America Corp, which will report on Friday, and rose 3.9% to US$19.40, and Intel rose 3.3% to US$23.52.
The DJIA closed + 103.69 pts, or 0.94%, at 11,123.11, the S&P 500 closed up 13.35 pts, or 1.12%, at 1,210.65, and the leading NAS tallied up + 38.87 pts, or 1.58%, to end the session at 2,504.86.
The large number of 52-week highs suggest broad-based buying, momentum indicators also are flashing that the markets are overbought in here.
Also boosting sentiment were March retail sales, which rose 1.6%, the Commerce Department reported, beating expectations for a 1.2% increase. The S&P retail index rose 1.2%.
The KBW Banks index rose 3.4%, and Citigroup Inc gained 6.7% to US$4.93/shr and was the most actively traded stock on the NYSE Wednesday.
After the market’s close, Yum Brands Inc. operator of Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and other restaurant chains, reported adjusted Q-1 earnings that beat expectations, sending the stock up 2.9% to US$42.89 afterhours.
General Electric reports this week too, it is up more than 4% on the week so far.
US economic activity strengthened in most regions in March, and early April, except for St. Louis where plans to close several plants were announced, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book.
Energy stocks advanced after a surprise fall in U.S. crude inventories, a positive sign for demand that sent May crude futures up 2.3% to US$85.99 bbl, ConocoPhillips gained 2.2% to US$56.89.
Are you watching the VIX: The Volatility Index, aka VIX, is down 2.8%, is at its lowest since Y 2007.
Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.6%), Tech (+1.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.5%), Industrials (+1.3%), Energy (+0.9%), Materials (+0.9%)
Declining Sectors: Health Care (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Utilities, Consumer Staples
Volume and Breadth: About 10.24B/shrs traded on the NYSE, the AMEX and NAS, above last year’s estimated daily average of 9.65b/shrs. About  3 stocks rose for each 1 that fell on the NYSE, and on the NAS, 3 stocks rose for each 1 that fell.
Market Indexes Technical Analysis
Major World Markets
Gold Focus Report
Gold rallies on weak ”Greenback”
Gold futures on the COMEX Division: New York Merc closed higher Wednesday, as the USD lost against other major currencies, Sliver and Platinum surged.
The most active Gold contract for June delivery rose US$6.2, or 0.5%, to finish at US$1,159.6 oz.
The US labor department said on Wednesday that US consumer prices index increased 0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching forecasts. The government’s core consumer price index remained unchanged, while economist had estimated a 0.1% increase, thus auguring for low inflation expectations.
The CPI figures have proved Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s point of view that inflation is not an immediate concern for U.S economy, and Federal Reserve will maintain its highly simulative policies of low interest rate for an extended period.
Since low interest rates reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing Gold, investors have been shifting to Gold as a safe-haven.
The US Dollar extended losses after report released on Wednesday showed sales at US retailers rose more vigorously than expected in March, suggesting a broadening of the manufacturing-led economic recovery.
Upbeat corporate earnings reports increased investor appetite for riskier assets, and tarnished the Greenback’s appeal as safe-haven.
The decline of the USD boosted investors’ interest in Gold as an alternative asset, and made it cheaper for other currency holders.
Also, May Silver was up 16.6c to US$18.415 oz, and July Platinum surged US$16.9 to US$1,734.2Â oz
Overall Technical Outlook
Gold’s consolidation from 1170.7 is still in progress, and intra-day bias is Neutral for now.
Another decline cannot be ruled out but Southside will likely be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1084.8 to 1170.7 at 1137.9 and bring rally resumption. However, a break of 1170.7 will target 100% projection of 1044.5 to 1145.8 from 1084.8 at 1186 level next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5Â augurs that it is possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the long term up-trend.
So the upside will likely be limited by the 1227.5 high ,and bring at least one more decline before the consolidation concludes.
On the Downside, a move below the 1084.8 support will indicate that the 3rd leg of consolidations has started and should then target 1044.5 again. Stay tuned….
Crude Oil Focus Report
Crude Oil prices ended a 5 day losing streak, and rebounded to above US$85 bbl Wednesday as US Crude Oil inventory caught everyone by surprise and fell last week.
Light, Sweet Crude for May delivery gained US$1.79Â to settle at US$85.84 bbl on the New York Merc. Crude Oil futures rose to as high as US$86.39 bbl during the trading session.
The US Energy Department Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that Crude Oil stockpiles fell by 2.2M bbls, as analysts had forecasted a gain of 1.6M bbls.
The report also showed that gasoline inventories declined by 1.1M Â bbls more than average forecast for a decrease of 600,000 bbls.
Crude Oil prices began to move North before the inventory report as strong earnings results and retail sale data reassured investors’ confidence in a slow yet steady economic recovery.
In London, Brent Crude for May delivery rose US$1.44 to US$86 bbls on the ICE Futures Exchange.
The Overall Technical Outlook
With the 4 hours MACD crossed above the Signal Line, the choppy pull back from 87.09 might have completed at 82.51 already.
Intra-day bias is cautiously on the Northside for now and Crude Oil will target a retest of 87.09 1st. A break above that level will confirm a rally resumption for 90, a Key level next.
On the Downside: knowing that another fall cannot be ruled out, I will continue to expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 78.56 to 87.09 at 81.82 to conclude the correction and bring on a rally resumption.
The Big Picture: the medium term rise from 33.2 is still in progress, and could extend further North in here, and there is no change in the POV that it’s the 2nd wave of the whole correction that started in Y 2008 at 147.27.
Therefore, I continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring a reversal.
On the Downside: a move below the 78.56 support level will be the 1st signal of topping, and will turn the focus back to 69.50, the Key support for confirmation. Stay tuned… —Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. www.livetradingnews.com
Stocks to Watch Today
Apple, Inc (APPL), Citigroup, Inc.(C), McDonald’s Corporation (MCD), and Visa, Inc. (V)
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