Obama Admin, Fed Laud Economic Growth, Consumers Disagree

Obama Admin, Fed Laud Economic Growth, Consumers Disagree

Obama Admin, Fed Laud Economic Growth, Consumers Disagree


Consumer Confidence unexpectedly fell in May for a 2nd month as American consumers are less than enthusiastic about the current state of the economy, a report from the New York-based Conference Board showed Tuesday.

The Conference Board’s Sentiment Index fell to 92.6 i  May from a revised 94.7 reading in April, the New York-based private research group said Tuesday.

The median forecast in a survey of 68 economists called for an increase to 96.1, estimates ranged from 94 to 101.4.

Index fell to 92.6, the lowest since November, from a revised 94.7 in April, the median forecast in a survey of economists was 96.1

The measure of US consumers expectations for the next 6 months fell to 79, the lowest since February 2014 from 79.7.

The gauge of present conditions dropped to 112.9, also a six-month low, from 117.1

Growing concerns about employment, which had been the Obama Admin says is strongest part of the US economy, would make it difficult to sustain the pickup in spending seen at the start of Q-2. Still, the survey also showed more US households this month expected to buy automobiles and homes in the next 6 months, indicating souring attitudes had yet to influence some buying patters.

“US consumers remain cautious about the outlook for business and labor market conditions,” the  director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “Thus, they continue to expect little change in economic activity in the months ahead.”

The juxtaposition between the consumers’ robust spending figures and the softer confidence numbers released on the very same day is hard to reconcile, but expect the Fed to come down on the side of the spending figures, it follows the dollars.

The number of Americans who said jobs were currently hard to find rose to 24.4 from 22.8% The share saying jobs were plentiful was little changed at 24.3% compared with 24.2%.

The number of Americans who see greater job availability in the next 6 months was little changed at 12.8 from 12.7% in April.

About 16.2% projected incomes will increase in the next 6 months, up from 15.8% in April buying plans improved for automobiles and homes, but declined for appliances.

Donald Trump says that one has to be a “dummy” to believe the government’s official unemployment rate of 5%, I certainly concurs with him on that.

The true jobless rate is about 20% and Donald Trump vows to investigate government economic statistics, such as “the way they are reported.”

“When you look at some of these economic numbers they give out and then you go out and see people dying to get a job all over the country, I mean, it’s not jibing with what’s really going on,” Mr. Trump said Tuesday.

“The economy is not doing well,” Mr. Trump said. “I’m getting 20,000 to 25,000 people every time I make a speech, and they are not there just because of the border,” he said, referring to his vow to build a Wall between the US and Mexico.

“They are there because, and you know if you put out a job notice, you will get thousands of people showing up to pick up a job,” Mr. Trump said.

The official US government unemployment rate is conveniently reduced by a number of factors, such as the exclusion of out-of-work people who have stopped looking for work for more than a year because they may have grown frustrated by the lack of jobs. The truly frustrated are not counted.

Tuesday, the US major stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -86.09 at 17787.13, NAS Comp +14.55 at 4948.05,, S&P 500 -2.11 at 2096.95

Volume: Trade was heavy with about 1.44-B/shares exchanged on the NYSE

  • S&P 500 +2.6% YTD
  • DJIA+2.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +1.7% YTD
  • NAS Comp -1.2% YTD
HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.18) Neutral (0.00) Neutral (0.12) Bullish (0.42)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY:  Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.26) Bullish (0.29) Neutral (0.21) Bullish (0.29)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ:  Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.17) Bullish (0.29) Neutral (0.21) Neutral (0.01)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX:  Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.34) Bearish (-0.42) Bearish (-0.45) Neutral (-0.17)

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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