Latest LATimes Poll, The Presidential Race is a Statistical Tie
A new report highlights the risks in looking too much into the Los Angeles Times poll, but also gives it some legitimacy in this unpredictable Y 2016 election season.
- Donald Trump: 43%
- Hillary Clinton: 41%
- Johnson: 6%
- Stein: 2%
- Another candidate: 4%
- Undecided: 5%
RealClear Politics’ senior elections analyst argues that the LA Times poll, which has mostly shown that Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton in the race for President, while most other national polls say the opposite should not be written off as fiction. Of course he is slamming the the posing data, and promoting his own firm’s validity and bias.
RealClear Politics presents its data analysis with a Hillary Clinton bias. Its methodology is somewhat cryptic and esoteric and may be seen as “mythology” by others.
The LATimes survey was called the RAND poll for the 2012 Election.
“The RAND poll showed some pretty freakish results, popping out results as many as 6 pts at variance to the RCP Average,” he wrote, referencing the Y 2012 poll results.
“In the end, though, the RAND poll basically got it right. The national polls (though not so much the state polls) were off in Y 2012. During the closing month of the campaign, they showed, on average, a 0.3 pt Romney lead. The RAND poll, by contrast, showed a 3.8 pt Obama lead which was almost exactly correct.”
He goes on to say that it is not time to take the LATimes poll too literally and call it a predictor of what will happen on November 8, it is worth watching, particularly in this contentious election that is full of surprises.
“We should treat it as one poll among many, and should note its outlier-ish tendencies. It may be worth watching for trend lines,” he wrote.
“At the same time, though, we should recall that almost all of the objections lodged against the poll could have been lodged against it in 2012. Many were. The poll may well be flat-out wrong in Y 2016, but its history cautions heavily against dismissing it outright.”
The latest LATimes poll showed the race is a statistical tie on the heels of Donald Trump’s salty coments Y 2005 comments being made public and also the 2nd debate last weekend.
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