Key Stock Indexes, Crude, Gold & Silver Markets Briefing
$DIA, $GLD, $SLV, $OIL, $USO, $CU
Commentary: There is still enthusiasm for the Bull market’s strength, but there is one view that is worth consideration in here. Merrill Lynch’s strategy team issued notices Thursday, noting that the S&P 500 recently reached 17X forward earnings, a level briefly reached in Y 2015, but otherwise not seen that X since Y 2004. They also said that financial stocks and energy stocks saw multiples contract in January as earnings estimates rose faster than prices. Almost all stocks have risen and trading higher. Important resistance on Nifty and Shanghai is seen above current levels. DAX and Nikkei have some more room on the Northside.PE
DJIA at 20172.40, +0.59% moved up towards 20200, there be a pause either near 20200 or at 20300-20350 region which would them put the index in a consolidative mode several session, as it climbs the Wall of Worry.
DAX at 11642.86, +0.86% has moved up along with the other indices. A clear break above 11680 could take it higher towards 11820-11930 levels in the medium term. Overall view remains bullish while above 11400.
Nikkei at 19343.64, +2.31% moved up sharply as USD/JPY (113.67) spiked breaking the 111.36-112.60 range mentioned Thursday. With fresh rise in the US Dollar (.DXY) Index boosting weakness in JPY, we could see a rise in Nikkei too in the near term. Immediate target on the upside would be 19615 over the next few sessions.
Shanghai at 3193.58, +0.33% is on the verge of breaking abov Key resistance near 3200. If this breaks on the Northside, we could target marks near 3300-3400 in the next 2 weeks.
Nifty at 8778.40, +0.11% may rise towards 8800-8850 before pausing to refresh. 9000 is Psych resistance we are looking at medium term, which may be easily broken on the Northside.
Crude Oil, Gold, Silver & Copper + .DXY Markets
The US Dollar (.DXY) Index (100.67) strength is hurting precious metals but Crude Oil remains stable.
Gold at 1225.04 corrected to Key support of 1220 after making a high at 1245, in the middle of the resistance band of 1240-50. If 1220 holds, then a bounce to 1250 may happen, but a break below 1220 may extend the decline to 1205-1200. We wait, we see.
Silver at 17.59 weakened and may test the major support at 17.38-35, which must hold to keep the Northside possibilities open. The uptrend remains intact above 17.35, but a break below 17.35 can push it South to 17.10-00.
Brent Crude Oil at 55.67 has retraced 50% of it recent fall from 57.41 to 54.41 and WTI Crude Oil at 53.08 has retraced more than 60% of the fall from 54.34 to 51.38. The sentiment near term has turned Bullish but the IEC and OPEC reports due Friday and Monday respectively may determine the near term path.
Copper at 2.654 unchanged in the range of 2.61-2.70 as expected, which may continue for a few more days