Investors Almanac: February has been the S&P 500’s Weakest Month

Investors Almanac: February has been the S&P 500’s Weakest Month

Investors Almanac: February has been the S&P 500’s Weakest Month


Over and during the past 40 years, February has been the S&P 500’s weakest month within the generally strong November to April frame.

In that frame stocks have risen only 0.06% in the average February, according to the data

Febraury has been the most dangerous month for stocks in years after elections. In the post election Februaries since Y 1977, the S&P has fallen by 1.85% on average.

Notably, the US stock market has gone 75 days without a daily decline of 1% or more. So, we can expect it at any time.

Some guru’s expects the S&P to fall 3 to 6%  in the weeks ahead, such a dip would serve as a “welcome buying opportunity,” they say.

A pullback will be very healthy in here I believe. Though, there will be outlandish cries that the Sky is Falling on US President Trump’s honeymoon rally.


I expect that the US economy will grow under President Trump, and there is going to be a lot more money to spend.

Wednesday, the S&P 500 finished Flat to Unchanged while the NAS Comp (+0.5%) and DJIA (+0.1%) ended modestly higher due to a huge move in shares of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) 129.92, +8.57, +7.1% following its F-Q-1 earnings report, which revealed record revenues, earnings, and iPhone sales.

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at: N/A

  • Russell 2000 +0.2% YTD
  • DJIA +0.7% YTD
  • S&P 500 1.8% YTD
  • NAS Comp 4.8% YTD
HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.27) Neutral (-0.06) Bullish (0.28) Very Bullish (0.58)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Neutral (0.16) Neutral (0.07) Neutral (0.23) Neutral (0.19)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bullish (0.47) Bullish (0.35) Very Bullish (0.54) Very Bullish (0.53)
HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX: Overall Short Intermediate Long
Bearish (-0.39) Bearish (-0.36) Very Bearish (-0.71) Neutral (-0.11)

Stay tuned…


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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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