Indonesian Rupiah Outlook

Indonesian Rupiah Outlook

Indonesian Rupiah closed down -3.000 at 13,097.000. Volume was 23% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 79% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
13,090.00013,111.00013,080.00013,097.000 146

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 13,111.70 13,279.04 13,460.10
Volatility: 3 8 8
Volume: 121 113 138

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX IDR= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of IDR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on IDR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

Bank Indonesia said the country’s inflation on monthly basis was 0.74 percent in July , 2016 bringing the total inflation to 1.8 percent in the first seven months of the year.

The monthly inflation rose from 0.66 percent in June but the trend was declining during the month of July, Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said as quoted by Indonesian news agency, ANTARA News.

Agus said the inflationary pressure declined sharply in the last two weeks of July from 1 percent in the third week to 0.74 percent in fourth week.

In the first week the inflation was 1.2 percent down to 1.18 percent in the second week of the month, he said here on Friday.

“The consumer goods prices fell resulting in a decline in inflation from 1 percent in third week to 0.74 percent at present,” Agus said .

However, inflationary pressure is still feared in the remaining days of July with the surge in the prices of food commodities like red onion an chili, he said.

Therefore, he called on the government and the Regional Inflation Controlling Team to remain watchful.

He predicted the country’s inflation this year would be around 3.6 percent or still inside the central banks target range of 3-5 percent or below the governments target of 4 percent this year.

The central bank predicted the inflationary pressure would come again when the wet dry season or La Nina that could cause trouble in distribution of goods .

In addition, normally the price trend would rise toward the end of the year and Christmas, he said.

Inflation is an macro economic indicators which the central bank is more concern with to maintain economic stability. Other indicators are current account deficit which is expected to relax to 2.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product or around US20 billion.

The central bank still maintain its moderate target of 5-5.4 percent for the country’s economic growth this year.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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