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Hong Kong to Replace New York as World Finance Capital

UBS, DB, NMR

London has fallen behind New York as the world’s biggest financial center by number of jobs and will be overtaken by Hong Kong by Y 2015, new data released Monday showed, reflecting an economic “shift to the east”, but also an unhelpful regulatory environment and public distrust of financial services.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research said London had fewer jobs in “City type financial services’ than New York in Y 2012, the first time the US capital has fallen from top spot since the survey started in Y 1998.

The research showed that financial services jobs in London will fall to 249,512 in Y 2012 from 280,350 in Y 2011. New York will employ 254,102 by the end of the year and Hong Kong, currently the 3rd biggest financial center, is projected to reach 247,912 jobs by Y 2015, when it will overtake London. By Y 2016 it will employ 262,043, outstripping New York to reach # 1.

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The data adds to a troubling picture for London as a competitive financial center in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Last month, UBS AG NYSE:UBS said it would axe 10,000 jobs worldwide as it refocused its operations away from investment banking, with many of the cuts coming in London. Deutsche Bank AG NYSE:DB and Nomura Co. Ltd. T:9716, NYSE:NMR have also reduced staffing levels in London in recent months.

In a further blow to financial services workers in London, the CEBR said City bonuses would fall more than 60% next year as low levels of activity during the Summer was reflected in lower pay outs. The CEBR said the total bonus pool for City workers would be GBP1.59-B (US$2.53-B) in Y 2013, down from GBP4.4-B this year. The bonus pool peaked at GBP11.57-B in Y 2009, equating to GBP 33,000 per person.

The biggest loser from this is the UK taxman, who typically earns more from City bonuses than the employees.