Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) Financial Crisis Within Next Three Years

Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) Financial Crisis Within Next Three Years

Hong Kong and mainland China are the most vulnerable economies at risk of a financial crisis over the next three years as over 40 out of 60 economic indicators are sending alarm signals, including runaway property prices and soaring levels of private debt. Twenty years on from the Asian financial crisis, the region is once again vulnerable, but the financial stress points are more domestic.

Many economists believe Asia is more resilient to shocks in the financial system now because many countries in the region have more flexible exchange rate policies, their current account deficits have turned to surpluses and foreign reserves have increased, but the Nomura analysts are among the few flagging the dangers.

Hong Kong’s decline was made most obvious last year, when the territory fell from third to fourth place in the 19th global financial centres index, ceding its position to Singapore.
To make matters worse, Hong Kong is facing a brain drain. A Chinese University of Hong Kong survey shows that about 40 per cent of Hong Kong residents who were polled by researchers want to leave the city.

For Hong Kong, which had successfully transformed itself into a thriving global city and seen meteoric growth in jobs and revenue from the engines of financial services and trade in the 1990s and early 2000s, there is a sense that its administrators can do better than this.

Many ask if the Hong Kong government knows what it wants and how it can go about sustaining Hong Kong’s financial hub status. I argue that a lack of centralisation in its policy processes has proven to be its Achilles’ heel.

Technical Analysis

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7.79.

The projected upper bound is: 7.81.

The projected lower bound is: 7.79.

The projected closing price is: 7.80.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.3059. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -119.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX HKD= closed down -0.002 at 7.802. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 35% wider than normal.

Open   High    Low     Close    Volume
7.806   7.806   7.801   7.802   3,222

Technical Outlook
Short Term:               Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:                Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period  50-period  200-period
Close:                       7.81            7.80            7.77
Volatility:                 1                  1                  0
Volume:                   7,817          8,547          7,537

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX HKD= is currently 0.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of HKD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on HKD= and have had this outlook for the last 117 periods.

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Ivy Heffernan

From Modeling To Economics; My name is Ivy Heffernan, and I am interested in a wide range of professions. Economics and politics at the age of 16 is easy when your father has a Ph.D in economics, i have been taught to put together technical analyst and stay up to date with the changing markets as well as what is happening in the political world. Modeling: Since a young age i have been fond of modeling, losing over 40.. kgs to achieve my goal at becoming a super model. I have found it to be a more beneficial experience than just looking pretty. It has opened up many doors to my future and has made me quite outgoing, bringing me to my next topic Journalism: I love Traveling and meeting new people, of course my mind always gets wrapped around business, so i decided to turn it into one. I go to events, restaurants, model parties, clubs ect.. to interview people on their businesses and then write an article all about it and the experience. Summary: I think being a well rounded individual on all topics is the most important thing to everyone, with the changing economies it's good to know that no matter what life throws at you, and no matter what job you are given, you'll always be capable.

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