Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (HKDUSD) GDP Exceeds Expectations

Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (HKDUSD) GDP Exceeds Expectations

Hong Kong Dollar (HK$) ⇨ US Dollar ($) (HKDUSD) GDP Exceeds Expectations

Hong Kong’s economy grew by 0.7% quarter/quarter in Q1, beating the median forecast of analysts. It grew by 4.3% year/year, also above expectations.

Hong Kong’s economy grew faster than expected in the first three months of 2017, with GDP expanding by 0.7% quarter/quarter, above the median forecast of 0.5% in a poll of analysts. Year/year GDP growth was 4.3%, also beating expectations of 3.4% growth.

While the latest quarterly expansion rate was down from the previous 1.2%, growth on the year rose from the prior 3.1% and remains well above the government’s projected range of 2%-3% for 2017. In response, the Hong Kong Dollar was little changed, with USD/HKD trading at 7.7924, compared with 7.7925 just ahead of the release.

The HKD has been of the weakest currencies so far this year, with USD/HKD on an upward trend that so far shows no sign of ending.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

Short term: Prices are stalling.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7.78.

The projected upper bound is: 7.80.

The projected lower bound is: 7.79.

The projected closing price is: 7.79.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 38 white candles and 11 black candles for a net of 27 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.4766. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 141.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX HKD= closed up 0.002 at 7.794. Volume was 28% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 65% wider than normal.

Open   High   Low     Close   Volume
7.793   7.795   7.792   7.794   5,212

Technical Outlook
Short Term:                Overbought
Intermediate Term:  Bullish
Long Term:                 Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close:                        7.79               7.78              7.76
Volatility:                 1                     0                   0
Volume:                   8,812              7,454           7,151

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary
FOREX HKD= is currently 0.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into HKD= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on HKD= and have had this outlook for the last 82 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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Shayne Heffernan Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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